Abstract:

In order to realize the goal of “double carbon”, we study the synergistic effect of thermal power generators in the green certificate market, carbon market and Chinese certified emission reduction (CCER) market under the background of market expansion. We construct a trading framework for thermal power generators under the multi-market association, and analyze the synergistic effect of emission control enterprises and emission reduction impacts under the market expansion based on the multi-subject non-cooperative game model, and adopt the empirical mode decomposition (EMD) combined with the support vector machine (SVM) model to predict the carbon emission right trading volume, and to estimate the carbon emission right trading volume, and to estimate the carbon emission right trading volume. Empirical mode decomposition (EMD) combined with support vector machine (SVM) model is used to predict the volume of carbon emissions trading and provide key parameter support for the game model. The results show that the thermal power industry dominates the market through flexible strategies, while the steel and cement industries rely more on carbon emissions trading and CCER compliance, and there are differences in the performance of different industries in the market, and the expansion of the carbon market, and the combination of green certificates and CCER effectively alleviate the pressure of the carbon market.

Key words: carbon market expansion, green certificates - carbon market - CCER, carbon allowance demand forecast