A Forecasting Method for Provincial-level Energy Supply and Demand under Carbon Quota Constraint

doi:10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202410088

Abstract

Abstract:

Energy is the foundation of national economy and the main field for carbon reduction, and its future development of energy supply and demand has a significant impact on constructing the new energy systems and achieving the carbon peak and carbon neutralization targets. Considering multiple factors such as economic and social development status, energy consumption characteristics of each province, an indicator system for carbon quota allocation is constructed, encompassing aggregate and relative metrics, and balancing equity with efficiency, and a provincial-level energy supply-demand forcasting method under carbon quota constraints is proposed to achieve comprehensive balance analysis and prediction of primary and secondary energy of different varieties and industries covering the entire process. Based on China's carbon peak target in 2030, an empirical analysis is carried out with Shandong Province as an example to verify the effectiveness of the proposed method, which provides a reference for different provinces in carbon emissions control and energy transformation.

Key words: energy supply and demand, carbon quotas, fairness and efficiency, synthetic forecasting

LI Yan, ZHAO Xin, XUE Wanlei, TAN Xiandong, LIU Zhifan, LIU Zhilin. A Forecasting Method for Provincial-level Energy Supply and Demand under Carbon Quota Constraint[J]. Electric Power, 2025, 58(5): 52-61.

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URL: https://www.electricpower.com.cn/EN/10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202410088

https://www.electricpower.com.cn/EN/Y2025/V58/I5/52

Figures/Tables 10

References 26

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准则	类型	指标	指标含义
公平准则	总量指标	人口	年末常住人口
		GDP	GDP数值
		能源消费总量	煤、油、气等消费总量
效率准则	相对指标	单位能源消费产出	GDP/能源消费总量
效率准则	相对指标	单位碳排能耗	能源消费总量/碳排放量

准则	类型	指标	指标含义
公平准则	总量指标	人口	年末常住人口
		GDP	GDP数值
		能源消费总量	煤、油、气等消费总量
效率准则	相对指标	单位能源消费产出	GDP/能源消费总量
效率准则	相对指标	单位碳排能耗	能源消费总量/碳排放量

聚类指标	G1	G2	G3	G4	G5
人口/万人	10479	8794	4316	5117	2747
GDP/亿元	103651	62559	24009	40748	14106
能源消费总量/万t	33334	28694	23195	14393	9219
单位能源消费产出/(亿元·万t^–1)	3.11	2.31	1.11	3.03	1.58
单位碳排能耗/ (t标准煤·万t^–1)	5327	4882	3979	4613	4997

聚类指标	G1	G2	G3	G4	G5
人口/万人	10479	8794	4316	5117	2747
GDP/亿元	103651	62559	24009	40748	14106
能源消费总量/万t	33334	28694	23195	14393	9219
单位能源消费产出/(亿元·万t^–1)	3.11	2.31	1.11	3.03	1.58
单位碳排能耗/ (t标准煤·万t^–1)	5327	4882	3979	4613	4997

分组	省级区划名称	主要特点	碳配额占比/%
G1	广东、江苏	总量和效率均最高	16.6
G2	浙江、山东、河南	总量较高，效率中等偏上	21.3
G3	河北、山西、内蒙古、辽宁、陕西	总量中等，效率最低	12.1
G4	北京、上海、安徽、福建、湖北、湖南、四川	总量中等偏下，效率较高	20.2
G5	天津、吉林、黑龙江、江西、广西、海南、重庆、贵州、云南、陕西、甘肃、青海、宁夏	总量最低，效率中等	29.8