Key Issues in Security and Stability Analysis for the

doi:10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202504017

Abstract

Abstract:

The "15th Five-Year Plan" period represents a critical phase for China to achieve its landmark carbon peaking target. With the development of new energy power generation exceeding expectations, power grid planning faces unprecedented challenges and opportunities. This paper examines the technical characteristics of power grids during this period, including the normalization of high-proportion new energy output, the dynamic process coupling of transmission and distribution networks, and the weakening effect of system scale growth on stability improvement. To address these characteristics, the paper proposes key research directions for security and stability analysis in grid planning during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, which include: screening typical scenarios for stability analysis, load modeling incorporating distributed generations, load capacity of power electronics-dominated generation systems, and comprehensive short-circuit current management. In technological innovation, the paper suggests such scenario-specific studies as application of grid-forming technologies, optimal selection of transmission technology solutions, etc.

Key words: 15th Five-Year Plan, power grid planning, renewable energy, security and stability

ZHOU Qinyong, HAO Shaoxu, DONG Wu, ZHANG Libo, ZHANG Jian, HE Hailei, ZHAO Leilei. Key Issues in Security and Stability Analysis for the "15th Five-Year" Power Grid Planning[J]. Electric Power, 2025, 58(9): 138-147.

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URL: https://www.electricpower.com.cn/EN/10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202504017

https://www.electricpower.com.cn/EN/Y2025/V58/I9/138

Figures/Tables 13

Fig.1 Cumulative duration of the different proportion of new energy generation output in 2030

Table 1 Impacts of distributed renewable energy models on power receiving capacity of Shandong Grid 单位：GW

模型	常规电源+集中式新能源出力	分布式新能源出力	受电能力
详细建模	30+30	25	18
负负荷	30+30	25	30
不考虑	30+30		34

Fig.2 Variation in installed capacity, line length, substation capacity, and load scale of the East China power system

Fig.3 Scale variation of the East China power system

Fig.4 Evolutionary curve of average electrical distance vs. system scale

Fig.5 Evolutionary curve of short circuit capacity vs. system scale

Fig.6 Evolutionary curve of kinetic energy vs. system scale

Fig.7 Distribution of typical operating modes of the Northwest power grid in the annual 8760-hour operation scheme

Fig.8 Detailed topology structure of a 220 kV substation

Fig.9 Distributed new energy+load equivalent model for a 220 kV substation

Fig.10 Bus voltage and power curves under 220 kV three-phase permanent short circuit fault

Fig.11 Time characteristics of short-circuit current in 500 kV stations

Table 2 Comparison of various transmission technologies

项目	VSC	CLCC	SLCC	LFAC
电网强度要求	跟网控制：SCR＞1.5；构网控制：无要求	SCR＞2	SCR＞1.5
换相失败风险	无	无	低	无
电压支撑能力	具备	不具备	理论上具备	具备
短路电流贡献	有	无	有
构网能力	可采用构网控制	无	SVG可构网	可采用构网控制
工程示范	±800 kV甘浙直流即将投运	±500 kV葛南直流改造	±500 kV扬镇直流Ⅱ期	已建成示范工程3项，最高电压等级220 kV
适用场景	送端：支撑能力较弱、电源汇集范围广的沙戈荒、藏东南新能源基地外送系统；受端：多直流集中馈入电网	多直流集中馈入电网	对直流支撑能力需求高的沙戈荒、藏东南外送系统	2000 MW内，70~150 km范围深远海大容量新能源的汇集和送出

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