Risk Limiting Based Resilient Operation Method for Power Grid

doi:10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202307045

Abstract

Abstract:

Under the background of construction of the new power system, the integration of a large amount of renewable energy into the existing grid poses significant challenges to the dispatch and operation mode of power grid. In order to address the risk of load shedding caused by the power fluctuation and uncertainty of renewable energy on real-time power balance in the grid, we propose a resilient operation model for the grid based on risk limiting theory (RLB). To solve the problem of solving probabilistic constraints, a solution is provided to enhance the operational resilience of the grid. By deriving three intermediate state models of RLB and their analytical solutions, we present an iterative RLB solution algorithm based on intermediate state models and provide a rigorous proof of its global optimality. Finally, based on the IEEE 6-node system and an actual 25981-node regional grid examples, we analyze the relationship between system flexibility, prediction accuracy, and system resilience, and it is concluded that improving the operational resilience of the new power system is premised on sufficient system flexibility and prediction accuracy.

Key words: new power system, risk limiting, uncertainty, probability constraint, resilient operation

Xiyue WANG, Hao ZHANG, Chaoyi PENG. Risk Limiting Based Resilient Operation Method for Power Grid[J]. Electric Power, 2023, 56(12): 127-137.

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URL: https://www.electricpower.com.cn/EN/10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202307045

https://www.electricpower.com.cn/EN/Y2023/V56/I12/127

Figures/Tables 17

Fig.1 Risk limiting operation framework

Fig.2 Decision process of RLB

Fig.3 Transition of intermediate state model

Fig.4 IEEE 6-bus system

Table 1 Generator data

发电机	$\underline P $ /MW	$\overline P $ /MW	第一阶段/ (元·MW^–1)	第二阶段/ (元·MW^–1)
1	50	200	30	32
2	50	220	27	31
3	60	180	25	29

Table 2 Load data

负荷	$\underline D $ /MW	$\overline D $ /MW	第一阶段/ (元·MW^–1)	第二阶段/ (元·MW^–1)
1	100	300	980	1200
2	0	230	1020	1200
3	0	200	870	900

Fig.5 Wind power prediction in scenario 1

Fig.6 Wind power prediction in scenario 2

Fig.7 Generation and load in scenario 1

Fig.8 Generation and load in scenario 2

Fig.9 Comparison of system operating cost in scenario 1 and 2

Fig.10 Topology of regional power grid

Table 3 Installed capacity in each province 单位：MW

省区	燃煤	燃气	风电	光伏	合计
A	12979	3416	25145	9603	51155
B	8786	1998	17108	6844	35018
C	16287	540	8805	12986	38633
D	50020	3476	17521	19962	90996
E	44631	571.53	14905	28177	88607
F	15684	551	—	—	16238
合计	151726	10178	83715	78500	162279

Fig.11 Relationship between wind penetration rate and forecast accuracy under fixed flexibility

Fig.12 Wind curtailment in scenario 1

Fig.13 Relationship between wind penetration rate and flexibility under fixed forecast accuracy

Fig.14 Relationship between flexibility and forecast accuracy under fixed wind penetration

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