Multi index fusion reliability evaluation method for virtual power plants considering the dynamic characteristics of energy storage

doi:10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202505077

Abstract

Abstract:

As a core hub for aggregating multi-source "generation-storage-load" resources, the reliability assessment of Virtual Power Plants (VPPs) is crucial for the stable operation of power systems and the absorption of renewable energy. Current assessment methods have two limitations: first, they adopt static energy storage models, which struggle to reflect the dynamic characteristics of devices; second, the evaluation indicators fail to quantify the power output stability during the power supply process. To address this, a multi-indicator integrated reliability assessment method for virtual power plants considering the dynamic characteristics of energy storage is proposed. Firstly, a dynamic energy storage model is constructed based on the capacity degradation and efficiency deterioration characteristics of energy storage devices during charging and discharging processes. Secondly, multiple energy sources such as wind power, photovoltaic power, adjustable loads, and grid transactions are integrated to build a virtual power plant model that reflects the collaborative operation of "generation-storage-load". Finally, focusing on power supply stability and renewable energy absorption efficiency, two indicators—Mean VPP Export Power Stability (MVPPE) and Expected Renewable Energy Not Used (ERENU)—are proposed. Combined with traditional indicators including Loss of Load Probability (LOLP) and Expected Energy Not Supplied (EENS), a reliability assessment system for virtual power plants considering the dynamic characteristics of energy storage is established. Simulation results show that compared with the traditional static energy storage model, this method increases MVPPE by 14.5% and reduces ERENU by 88.7%, which can more truly reflect the reliability level of VPPs and provide a scientific basis for their planning, operation, and optimization.

Key words: virtual power plant, dynamic energy storage, reliability assessment

WANG Huidong, NI Linna, LU Pengfei, CHENG Ying, WU Yingjun. Multi index fusion reliability evaluation method for virtual power plants considering the dynamic characteristics of energy storage[J]. Electric Power, 2026, 59(1): 33-43.

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URL: https://www.electricpower.com.cn/EN/10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202505077

https://www.electricpower.com.cn/EN/Y2026/V59/I1/33

Figures/Tables 11

Fig.1 Composition of Virtual Power Plant

Fig.2 Wind speed, irradiance and load data

Fig.3 Scheduling costs under different virtual power plant models

Fig.4 Comparison of indicators under different virtual power plant models

Table 1 Results of reliability evaluation for three models 单位：kW·h

指标	δ_MVPPE	δ_ERENU	δ_LOLP	δ_EENS
方案1	486.250	1 677.860	0.125	670.250
方案2	570.280	113.530	0	0
方案3	556.670	190.110	0	0

Fig.5 Energy storage capacity decay process

Fig.6 The variation process of charging and discharging efficiency of energy storage equipment with the number of cycles

Table 2 Evaluation data of virtual power plants under different cycle times

循环次数	成本/元	δ_MVPPE/(kW·h)	δ_ERENU/(kW·h)
1000	9 500.91	569.95	123.48
1500	9 575.29	557.54	128.96
2000	9 825.94	557.08	166.60
2500	10 141.32	556.11	189.01
3000	10 214.94	552.77	191.33
3500	10 244.81	552.37	231.04
4000	10 268.40	549.29	243.10
4500	10 497.04	548.02	288.76
5000	10 731.71	546.48	288.89
5500	10 755.15	545.82	312.01

Fig.7 Changes in energy storage state corresponding to different cycle times

Fig.8 Reliability evaluation results under different models

Fig.9 Sensitivity analysis of energy storage attenuation coefficient

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