Identification of loss-risk zones of coal-fired power projects under the capacity price mechanism

doi:10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202410092

Abstract

Abstract:

Guided by the capacity price policy, it is of great significance for building a clean, safe, economical and flexible new power system to optimize the market-oriented mechanism of coal-fired power projects on the basis of fully evaluating the loss-risk zones of coal-fired power projects in various regions. Taking three typical coal-fired power units as research objects, this paper proposes an improved coal-fired power regional levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) model by introducing the concept of equivalent units, so as to calculate and compare the LCOE of provincial coal-fired power units before and after the introduction of capacity price. On this basis, an investment return rate model for coal-fired power units is constructed, and the return-risk zones of regional coal-fired power units are calculated according to the current on-grid electricity price combined with the capacity price policy. The results show that the introduction of the capacity price mechanism has exerted a significant impact on the regional LCOE of coal-fired power, driving an overall declines in this cost level. Meanwhile, the average return range of regional coal-fired power units has been adjusted upward. Notably, the return levels of coal-fired power projects in western and northeastern China remain relatively low, indicating that such projects still face the possibility of losses during operation and their operational risks require attention. The research results can provide theoretical support for the formulation of regional coal-fired power prices and also serve as a decision-making basis for the market-oriented reform of coal-fired power.

Key words: coal-fired power, capacity price, regional LCOE, return on investment, risk

YUAN Shuguang, ZHAO Xiaoxi, WANG Huaqing, LIU Jianye. Identification of loss-risk zones of coal-fired power projects under the capacity price mechanism[J]. Electric Power, 2026, 59(5): 9-19.

Add to citation manager EndNote|Ris|BibTeX

URL: https://www.electricpower.com.cn/EN/10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202410092

https://www.electricpower.com.cn/EN/Y2026/V59/I5/9

Figures/Tables 8

References 35

1	国家发展改革委, 国家能源局, 国家数据局. 加快构建新型电力系统行动方案(2024—2027年)[J]. 大众用电, 2024, 39 (9): 7- 9.
2	林伯强, 滕瑜强. 新质生产力与“双碳”目标的关联和挑战: 基于能源低碳转型的视角[J]. 四川大学学报(哲学社会科学版), 2024 (5): 35- 46, 208–209.
	LIN Boqiang, TENG Yuqiang. The association of new quality productive forces with carbon peak/neutrality goals and challenges to be resolved: a perspective on low-carbon energy transition[J]. Journal of Sichuan University (Philosophy and Social Science Edition), 2024 (5): 35- 46, 208–209.
3	刘五星, 庄婧媛, 巫成方, 等. 区间调控机制对我国煤炭市场价格的影响研究: 兼析政府对煤炭价格调控政策的发展与创新[J]. 价格理论与实践, 2022 (5): 10- 14, 117.
	LIU Wuxing, ZHUANG Jingyuan, WU Chengfang, et al. Research on the Influence of Interval Regulation Mechanism on China's Coal Market Price: The development and innovation of the government's regulation and control policy on coal price[J]. Price (Theory & Practice), 2022 (5): 10- 14, 117.
4	王志轩, 张晶杰, 石丽娜, 等. 基于非随机样本的煤电平均碳足迹量化方法[J]. 中国电力, 2026, 59 (2): 71- 80.
	WANG Zhixuan, ZHANG Jingjie, SHI Lina, et al. Method for quantifying the average carbon footprint of coal-fired power based on non-random samples[J]. Electric Power, 2026, 59 (2): 71- 80.
5	SONG X H, ZHANG B J. Study on the cost composition and control of coal power in China under the perspective of policy evolution[J]. Heliyon, 2024, 10 (16): e36098.
6	吴迪, 王紫荆, 温灵, 等. 德国煤电退出机制和电力安全保供的经验分析[J]. 中国电力, 2025, 58 (10): 1- 13.
	WU Di, WANG Zijing, WEN Ling, et al. Analysis of Germany's experience with coal power phase-out mechanism and power supply safeguarding[J]. Electric Power, 2025, 58 (10): 1- 13.
7	朱法华, 徐静馨, 沈凡卉, 等. 中国火电低碳发展现状及展望[J]. 发电技术, 2026, 47 (2): 237- 247.
	ZHU Fahua, XU Jingxin, SHEN Fanhui, et al. Current situation and prospects of the low-carbon development of thermal power in China[J]. Power Generation Technology, 2026, 47 (2): 237- 247.
8	刘志强. 实行两部制电价, 推动煤电加快功能转型[N]. 人民日报, 2023-11-29(18).
9	赵德明, 韩啸, 肖亚京, 等. 完善两部制电价机制保障燃机发挥重要保供作用[J]. 中国电力企业管理, 2025 (16): 73- 75.
10	安洪光. 煤电容量电价实施的技术经济影响预测及建议[J]. 中国电力企业管理, 2024 (1): 10- 12.
11	刘吉臻, 杜忠明, 王庆华, 等. 新型电力系统下新一代煤电发展路径[J]. 新型电力系统, 2024, 2 (4): 357- 370.
	LIU Jizhen, DU Zhongming, WANG Qinghua, et al. Development paths for next-generation coal-fired power generation under new electric power systems[J]. New Type Power Systems, 2024, 2 (4): 357- 370.
12	张志强, 倪小点, 卢季德. 完善煤电容量电价机制促进煤电产业健康发展[J]. 中国经贸导刊, 2024 (11): 74- 76.
13	刘士名. 建立煤电容量电价机制对新能源市场发展的影响研究[J]. 电气技术与经济, 2024 (8): 323- 325.
14	孙啸天, 谢海鹏, 刘诗雨, 等. 基于平均场微分博弈均衡的煤-电市场价格联动机理分析[J]. 中国电机工程学报, 2026, 46 (1): 74- 86.
	SUN Xiaotian, XIE Haipeng, LIU Shiyu, et al. Coal-electricity price interaction mechanism analysis based on mean-field differential game equilibrium[J]. Proceedings of the CSEE, 2026, 46 (1): 74- 86.
15	王蕾, 孙轶恺, 王琼. 推进共同富裕目标下的中国电价体系: 理论机制与实现路径[J]. 价格理论与实践, 2024 (4): 88- 94.
	WANG Lei, SUN Yikai, WANG Qiong. Promoting China's electricity price system under the goal of common prosperity: theoretical mechanism and implementation path[J]. Price (Theory & Practice), 2024 (4): 88- 94.
16	吴梓凤, 马睿智, 江艺康, 等. 煤电容量电价机制下分省煤电经济性分析[J]. 煤炭经济研究, 2024, 44 (9): 27- 36.
	WU Zifeng, MA Ruizhi, JIANG Yikang, et al. Economic analysis of coal power by province under the coal capacity tariff mechanism[J]. Coal Economic Research, 2024, 44 (9): 27- 36.
17	李康. 光伏发电项目LCOE的研究与思考[J]. 太阳能, 2024 (4): 5- 10.
	LI Kang. Research and reflection on lcoe for pv power generation projects[J]. Solar Energy, 2024 (4): 5- 10.
18	郇嘉嘉, 罗澍忻, 刘正超, 等. 广东省天然气发电两部制价格机制研究: 基于LCOE模型对天然气发电成本分析及电价测算[J]. 价格理论与实践, 2024 (5): 111- 116, 223.
	HUAN Jiajia, LUO Shuxin, LIU Zhengchao, et al. Research on the Two-part Tariff Mechanism for Natural Gas Power Generation in Guangdong Province: Analysis of natural gas power generation cost and electricity price calculation based on LCOE model[J]. Price (Theory & Practice), 2024 (5): 111- 116, 223.
19	赵岩, 张玟, 宋晓华, 等. “双碳”背景下考虑多市场的煤电交易策略研究[J]. 价格理论与实践, 2022 (8): 21- 26.
	ZHAO Yan, ZHANG Min, SONG Xiaohua, et al. Research on coal power trading strategy considering multiple markets in the context of "Double-carbon"[J]. Price (Theory & Practice), 2022 (8): 21- 26.
20	关立, 周蕾, 刘秉祺, 等. 山东电力现货市场“五一”假期长时间负电价现象分析及启示[J]. 电力系统自动化, 2024, 48 (14): 1- 7.
	GUAN Li, ZHOU Lei, LIU Bingqi, et al. Analysis and enlightenment of long-time-scale negative electricity prices in Shandong electricity spot market of China during "may day" holiday[J]. Automation of Electric Power Systems, 2024, 48 (14): 1- 7.
21	项中明, 唐家俊, 徐立中, 等. 考虑电价碳价不确定性的燃煤发电基准电价优化模型[J]. 浙江电力, 2023, 42 (5): 59- 65.
	XIANG Zhongming, TANG Jiajun, XU Lizhong, et al. An optimization model of benchmark electricity price for coal fired power generation considering the uncertainty of carbon price and electricity price[J]. Zhejiang Electric Power, 2023, 42 (5): 59- 65.
22	崔曦文, 牛东晓, 张潇丹, 等. 双碳目标下的煤炭价格预测与预警研究[J]. 智慧电力, 2022, 50 (9): 16- 21, 44.
	CUI Xiwen, NIU Dongxiao, ZHANG Xiaodan, et al. Coal price prediction and early warning under carbon peak & carbon neutrality goals[J]. Smart Power, 2022, 50 (9): 16- 21, 44.
23	袁家海, 艾昱, 曾昱榕, 等. 中国燃煤发电成本和上网电价政策研究[J]. 煤炭经济研究, 2018, 38 (11): 43- 48.
	YUAN Jiahai, AI Yu, ZENG Yurong, et al. Research on China's coal-fired power generation cost and on-grid tariff policy[J]. Coal Economic Research, 2018, 38 (11): 43- 48.
24	刘文君, 董亚杰. 可再生能源配额制下煤电最优基准电价研究[J]. 南华大学学报(社会科学版), 2022, 23 (4): 9- 22.
	LIU Wenjun, DONG Yajie. Research on benchmark on-grid electricity price in electricity market based on renewable energy quota system[J]. Journal of University of South China (Social Science Edition), 2022, 23 (4): 9- 22.
25	杜英, 陈世兵, 刘洁, 等. 计及容量补偿的燃煤发电价格机制设计: 基于四川省实际数据对燃煤发电多类成本及电价测算[J]. 价格理论与实践, 2023 (9): 120- 124.
	DU Ying, CHEN Shibing, LIU Jie, et al. Design of Coal-fired Power Generation Price Mechanism with Capacity Compensation: Calculation of various costs and prices of coal-fired power generation based on the actual data of Sichuan Province[J]. Price (Theory & Practice), 2023 (9): 120- 124.
26	汪悦萍, 谭青博, 赵洱岽, 等. 灵活性调节煤电机组成本疏导的三部制电价机制分析[J]. 中国电力, 2025, 58 (7): 217- 226.
	WANG Yueping, TAN Qingbo, ZHAO Erdong, et al. Analysis of three-part tariff mechanism for cost pass-through of FlexibilityRegulated coal power units[J]. Electric Power, 2025, 58 (7): 217- 226.
27	杨娟. 建立煤电容量电价机制推动能源绿色低碳转型[J]. 价格理论与实践, 2023 (11): 28- 30.
	YANG Juan. Establishing the coal power capacity pricing mechanism to promote green and low-carbon energy transition[J]. Price (Theory & Practice), 2023 (11): 28- 30.
28	柯潘明. 煤电机组在容量电价机制下经济运行模式分析[J]. 内蒙古煤炭经济, 2024 (17): 178- 180.
29	袁涔, 代江, 李恺颜, 等. 容量电价机制下的煤电保供能力提升评估[J]. 电力大数据, 2025, 28 (3): 27- 35.
	YUAN Cen, DAI Jiang, LI Kaiyan, et al. Evaluation of coal-fired power supply assurance improvement under capacity pricing mechanism[J]. Power Systems and Big Data, 2025, 28 (3): 27- 35.
30	王永利, 郭文慧, 李雨洋, 等. 新型电力系统背景下煤电机组容量补偿电价核算[J]. 电力建设, 2025, 46 (2): 180- 192.
	WANG Yongli, GUO Wenhui, LI Yuyang, et al. Capacity compensation price accounting of coal-fired units under the background of new power system[J]. Electric Power Construction, 2025, 46 (2): 180- 192.
31	王帅, 陈济, 郑宽. 容量电价助力煤电企业利润修复[J]. 中国电力企业管理, 2025 (1): 24- 27.
32	DANNY HARVEY L D. Clarifications of and improvements to the equations used to calculate the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE), and comments on the weighted average cost of capital (WACC)[J]. Energy, 2020, 207, 118340.
33	张洪禹, 徐宏宁, 李丹, 等. 光伏LCOE的技术经济性突破对绿氢成本的影响[J]. 南方能源建设, 2025, 12 (3): 42- 51.
	ZHANG Hongyu, XU Hongning, LI Dan, et al. Impact of techno-economic breakthroughs in photovoltaic LCOE on green hydrogen costs[J]. Southern Energy Construction, 2025, 12 (3): 42- 51.
34	袁家海. 用市场化深化煤电供给侧结构性改革[J]. 能源, 2018 (6): 72- 76.
35	于学鹏. “双碳”背景下GW级煤电主机选型综合效益分析[J]. 能源工程, 2024, 44 (4): 26- 30.
	YU Xuepeng. Comprehensive benefit analysis of GW coal power generator selection under the background of "dual carbon"[J]. Energy Engineering, 2024, 44 (4): 26- 30.

机组类型		P＜60	60≤P＜100	P≥100
初始投资成本	建筑工程费/(元·kW^–1)	1252	973	869
	设备购置费/(元·kW^–1)	1749	1623	1514
	安装工程费/(元·kW^–1)	784	729	696
	其他费用/(元·kW^–1)	652	510	427
运维成本	维护性材料费/(元·kW^–1)	11.00	7.70	6.05
	消耗性材料费/(元·(MW·h)^–1)	1.60	1.38	1.10
	外包人工费/(万元·次^–1)	888	1221	1443
	无外包检修费/(万元·次^–1)	990	1320	1650
	大修特别工程费/万元	462	627	825
	保险费率/%	0.25	0.26	0.28
	工人工资/(万元·年^–1)	13	13.75	13.75
	工人人数/人	110	120	150

机组类型		P＜60	60≤P＜100	P≥100
初始投资成本	建筑工程费/(元·kW^–1)	1252	973	869
	设备购置费/(元·kW^–1)	1749	1623	1514
	安装工程费/(元·kW^–1)	784	729	696
	其他费用/(元·kW^–1)	652	510	427
运维成本	维护性材料费/(元·kW^–1)	11.00	7.70	6.05
	消耗性材料费/(元·(MW·h)^–1)	1.60	1.38	1.10
	外包人工费/(万元·次^–1)	888	1221	1443
	无外包检修费/(万元·次^–1)	990	1320	1650
	大修特别工程费/万元	462	627	825
	保险费率/%	0.25	0.26	0.28
	工人工资/(万元·年^–1)	13	13.75	13.75
	工人人数/人	110	120	150

地区	等效容量/ 万kW	发电量/ 万kW·h	发电厂用电率/%	发电耗用标煤量/kt
天津	1849.10	6986966	5.50	184.8
河北	7398.19	22695552	5.81	568.8
山西	8479.77	35135403	6.73	961.9
内蒙古	11482.11	52553472	6.74	1466.8
辽宁	4278.00	13002850	5.95	332.9
吉林	2016.64	6378026	7.19	170.2
黑龙江	2444.11	8321628	6.73	236.0
上海	2992.07	9150921	4.85	256.5
江苏	8559.44	46245502	4.56	1275.5
浙江	4979.42	30741360	5.02	826.6
安徽	6722.22	28561384	4.20	736.9
福建	3752.69	16051010	4.60	422.0
江西	2699.48	14585994	5.09	320.9
山东	7851.94	51821760	5.68	1298.2
河南	7518.21	26317508	5.27	710.6
湖北	3219.16	16402404	5.14	398.0
湖南	2679.36	10632175	5.51	272.1
广东	9458.41	45862200	4.96	1150.2
广西	2143.46	10695944	5.97	190.4
海南	1668.00	2875411	7.14	59.7
重庆	1936.84	7796880	6.70	227.6
四川	1613.38	7741750	3.86	177.2
贵州	4724.09	14381665	7.62	397.1
云南	1800.00	4499928	7.80	110.0
西藏	42.00	11634
陕西	5019.83	24457925	6.85	605.1
甘肃	3760.94	11752353	5.56	312.9
青海	392.00	1539498	5.74	41.8
宁夏	3315.83	16239236	7.83	438.4
新疆	7864.30	35516782	6.96	658.1

地区	等效容量/ 万kW	发电量/ 万kW·h	发电厂用电率/%	发电耗用标煤量/kt
天津	1849.10	6986966	5.50	184.8
河北	7398.19	22695552	5.81	568.8
山西	8479.77	35135403	6.73	961.9
内蒙古	11482.11	52553472	6.74	1466.8
辽宁	4278.00	13002850	5.95	332.9
吉林	2016.64	6378026	7.19	170.2
黑龙江	2444.11	8321628	6.73	236.0
上海	2992.07	9150921	4.85	256.5
江苏	8559.44	46245502	4.56	1275.5
浙江	4979.42	30741360	5.02	826.6
安徽	6722.22	28561384	4.20	736.9
福建	3752.69	16051010	4.60	422.0
江西	2699.48	14585994	5.09	320.9
山东	7851.94	51821760	5.68	1298.2
河南	7518.21	26317508	5.27	710.6
湖北	3219.16	16402404	5.14	398.0
湖南	2679.36	10632175	5.51	272.1
广东	9458.41	45862200	4.96	1150.2
广西	2143.46	10695944	5.97	190.4
海南	1668.00	2875411	7.14	59.7
重庆	1936.84	7796880	6.70	227.6
四川	1613.38	7741750	3.86	177.2
贵州	4724.09	14381665	7.62	397.1
云南	1800.00	4499928	7.80	110.0
西藏	42.00	11634
陕西	5019.83	24457925	6.85	605.1
甘肃	3760.94	11752353	5.56	312.9
青海	392.00	1539498	5.74	41.8
宁夏	3315.83	16239236	7.83	438.4
新疆	7864.30	35516782	6.96	658.1

[1]	LIN Guoxin, ZHANG Chao, FENG Kai, MA Jiahao, ZHANG Ning. Annual power purchase strategy considering multi-period sequential trading risks [J]. Electric Power, 2026, 59(3): 84-93.
[2]	WANG Zhixuan, ZHANG Jingjie, SHI Lina, FENG Tianfeng, WANG Chenlong, DU Xinxin, LEI Yuwei, GU Erxue. Method for quantifying the average carbon footprint of coal-fired power based on non-random samples [J]. Electric Power, 2026, 59(2): 71-80.
[3]	GUO Zhenglin, CHEN Shutong, TIAN Jiawen, CHEN Luan, GUO Zhongjie, HU Weihao, FU Qiang. Allocation of Multiple Resources for Integrated Energy System Based on Capacity Value Function [J]. Electric Power, 2025, 58(7): 15-23.
[4]	ZHAI Zhe, CHEN Ziyu, LIU Qixing, LIANG Yanjie, LI Zhiyong. An Electricity Market Trading Model for Distributed Resource Aggregators Considering Risk Management [J]. Electric Power, 2025, 58(6): 56-66, 155.
[5]	Linguang WANG, Xutao LI, Yong REN, Xiaorong XIE. A Searching Method for the Worst Operating Condition of Oscillatory Stability in New Energy Systems Based on Metaheuristic Algorithm [J]. Electric Power, 2025, 58(3): 65-72.
[6]	Jin LI, Kemeng LIU, Danli XU, Weiju GAO, Lei HUANG, Haoxing WU, Haochen HUA. Double-Layer Optimization of External Derivative Response for Multi-Energy Microgrid with Shared Energy Storage Stations [J]. Electric Power, 2025, 58(2): 43-56.
[7]	Mingbing LI, Qiang LI, Xiyang GUAN, Haoyang ZHOU, Rui LU, Yankun FENG. Market Oriented Low-Carbon Optimal Scheduling of Virtual Power Plants Considering Multiple User-Side Resources Coordination [J]. Electric Power, 2025, 58(2): 66-76.
[8]	JIA Dongli, LIU Jiajing, ZHAN Huiyu, WANG Huanchang, BU Qiangsheng. Collaborative Configuration of Multi-temporal and Spatial Flexible Resources in New Distribution Systems Considering Operational Risks [J]. Electric Power, 2025, 58(12): 73-85.
[9]	WANG Siqi, CAO Fang, YAO Li. Time-of-Use Pricing Model Considering the Risk of Cost Transmission in Multi-level Market Agent Electricity Purchase [J]. Electric Power, 2025, 58(11): 25-37.
[10]	Chouwei NI, Yang CHEN, Xuesong ZHANG, Da LIN, Kaijian DU, Jian CHEN. Optimal Configuration Method for Electric-thermo-hydrogen System Considering Safety Risks [J]. Electric Power, 2024, 57(9): 124-135.
[11]	Ke YANG, Dong WANG, Da LI, Wangjun ZHANG, Ga XIANG, Jun LI. Network Security Risk Assessment Index System and Calculation for Virtual Power Plant [J]. Electric Power, 2024, 57(8): 130-137.
[12]	Zixiang PEI, Kai SHU, Xuntian ZHOU, Tiancheng FAN, Yuhe LUO, Yuting LIU. Lightning Risk Assessment of Distribution Network Line Based on Information Fusion [J]. Electric Power, 2024, 57(7): 125-131.
[13]	Hanxiao LIU, Sike SHAN, Shuzhou WEI, Liyuan YU, Shuai WANG, Meiling LIU, Ying CUI. Life-Cycle Carbon Footprint Assessment of Coal-fired Power Generation [J]. Electric Power, 2024, 57(7): 227-237.
[14]	Yinan WANG, Jing LU, Xingtong CHEN, Hongcai DAI. Risk Assessment of Clean and Low-Carbon Energy Transformation Considering Superimposed Scenario of Multiple Factors [J]. Electric Power, 2024, 57(3): 183-189.
[15]	Shi MO, Qiushi XU, Zijing LU, Zishou LI, Hongsheng ZHAO, Li QIAO, Chao LUO. Fuzzy Partitioned Multi-objective Risk Framework Based Operational Risk Assessment of Cascading Failure for Power Grid [J]. Electric Power, 2024, 57(2): 41-48.