Fuzzy Partitioned Multi-objective Risk Framework Based Operational Risk Assessment of Cascading Failure for Power Grid

doi:10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202311114

Abstract

Abstract:

On the basis of analyzing the difference between the long-term evolution process and the short-term evolution process of the power grid, the concept of power grid cascading failure operation risk is proposed, the relationship between the long-term risk of cascading failure and operation risk is quantitatively analyzed, and a power grid cascading failure operation risk assessment model is established. The Monte Carlo method is used to simulate the evolution of the power grid with a given initial operating mode, and a fuzzy segmentation multi-objective risk framework is introduced to establish an evaluation index system. An example study was conducted in the IEEE 118 node system to analyze the impact of system operating parameters on the risk of power grid cascading failure under a given operating mode.

Key words: cascading failure, operational risk, Monte Carlo method

Shi MO, Qiushi XU, Zijing LU, Zishou LI, Hongsheng ZHAO, Li QIAO, Chao LUO. Fuzzy Partitioned Multi-objective Risk Framework Based Operational Risk Assessment of Cascading Failure for Power Grid[J]. Electric Power, 2024, 57(2): 41-48.

Add to citation manager EndNote|Ris|BibTeX

URL: https://www.electricpower.com.cn/EN/10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202311114

https://www.electricpower.com.cn/EN/Y2024/V57/I2/41

Figures/Tables 7

Fig.1 The flowchart of the cascading failure simulation process

Fig.2 Cumulative distribution of load loss due to cascading failure

Fig.3 The fuzzy membership function

Fig.4 Cumulative distribution of load loss

Fig.5 Operation risk indexes of load loss

Fig.6 Influence of operation parameters on the cascading failure operation risk

Fig.7 Convergence curves of risk index

References 25

1	康海鹏, 李长城, 黄思琪. 计及能源转换负荷影响的气电耦合系统连锁故障评估[J]. 电力系统保护与控制, 2023, 51 (12): 133- 145.
	KANG Haipeng, LI Changcheng, HUANG Siqi. Evaluation of cascading failures in an integrated gas and power system considering effects of energy conversion load[J]. Power System Protection and Control, 2023, 51 (12): 133- 145.
2	张宏杰, 陈贵凤, 闫宏伟, 等. 基于SMOTE与Bayes优化的LSTM网络变压器故障诊断[J]. 中国电力, 2023, 56 (10): 164- 170.
	ZHANG Hongjie, CHEN Guifeng, YAN Hongwei, et al. Fault diagnosis of LSTM network tansformer based on SMOTE and Bayes optimization[J]. Electric Power, 2023, 56 (10): 164- 170.
3	陈立征, 姚树国, 施啸寒. 考虑风偏闪络的电力系统故障场景仿真方法研究[J]. 东北电力大学学报, 2023, 43 (5): 53- 58.
	CHEN Lizheng, YAO Shuguo, SHI Xiaohan. Research on power system fault scenario simulation approach considering wind deviation flashover[J]. Journal of Northeast Electric Power University, 2023, 43 (5): 53- 58.
4	曹一家, 陈彦如, 曹丽华, 等. 复杂系统理论在电力系统中的应用研究展望[J]. 中国电机工程学报, 2012, 32 (19): 1- 9, 178.
	CAO Yijia, CHEN Yanru, CAO Lihua, et al. Prospects of studies on application of complex system theory in power systems[J]. Proceedings of the CSEE, 2012, 32 (19): 1- 9, 178.
5	刘文颖, 但扬清, 朱艳伟, 等. 复杂电网自组织临界态辨识物理指标研究[J]. 电工技术学报, 2014, 29 (8): 274- 280.
	LIU Wenying, DAN Yangqing, ZHU Yanwei, et al. Research on physical indicators to identify power system self-organized critical state[J]. Transactions of China Electrotechnical Society, 2014, 29 (8): 274- 280.
6	CARRERAS B A, NEWMAN D E, DOBSON I, et al. Evidence for self-organized criticality in a time series of electric power system blackouts[J]. IEEE Transactions on Circuits and Systems I:Regular Papers, 2004, 51 (9): 1733- 1740. DOI
7	CARRERAS B A, LYNCH V E, DOBSON I, et al. Complex dynamics of blackouts in power transmission systems[J]. Chaos, 2004, 14 (3): 643- 652. DOI
8	NEDIC D P, DOBSON I, KIRSCHEN D S, et al. Criticality in a cascading failure blackout model[J]. International Journal of Electrical Power & Energy Systems, 2006, 28 (9): 627- 633.
9	黄四亮, 孟湛博, 邢晓敏, 等. 考虑灾前预防和灾时响应状态下的弹性配电网提升策略研究[J]. 东北电力大学学报, 2023, 43 (4): 82- 89.
	HUANG Siliang, MENG Zhanbo, XING Xiaomin, et al. Consider the research on the improvement strategy of resilient distribution network under pre-disaster prevention and disaster response[J]. Journal of Northeast Electric Power University, 2023, 43 (4): 82- 89.
10	李铁成, 张卫明, 臧谦, 等. 基于混合整数线性规划的配电网在线自愈方案[J]. 中国电力, 2023, 56 (5): 129- 136.
	LI Tiecheng, ZHANG Weiming, ZANG Qian, et al. Online self-healing scheme of distribution network based on mixed integer linear programming[J]. Electric Power, 2023, 56 (5): 129- 136.
11	刘金, 李更丰, 孙思源, 等. 暴雨灾害下配电网预警与风险评估技术研究综述[J]. 东北电力大学学报, 2022, 42 (6): 1- 7.
	LIU Jin, LI Gengfeng, SUN Siyuan, et al. A review of early warning and risk assessment technologies for distribution networks under rainstorm disasters[J]. Journal of Northeast Electric Power University, 2022, 42 (6): 1- 7.
12	韩伟, 段文岩, 杜兴伟, 等. 基于数字孪生的在运安控系统故障诊断方法[J]. 中国电力, 2023, 56 (11): 121- 127.
	HAN Wei, DUAN Wenyan, DU Xingwei, et al. Fault diagnosis method for operational security control system based on digital twins[J]. Electric Power, 2023, 56 (11): 121- 127.
13	曹桂州, 陈二强, 范轩杰, 等. 同步调相机极限工况下典型磁场不对称故障安全风险[J]. 中国电力, 2023, 56 (2): 45- 52, 76.
	CAO Guizhou, CHEN Erqiang, FAN Xuanjie, et al. Safety risk of synchronous condenser with typical asymmetric magnetic field faults under extreme operating conditions[J]. Electric Power, 2023, 56 (2): 45- 52, 76.
14	张儒峰, 杨泽栋, 闫克非. 区域电-气综合能源系统故障恢复与维修协调优化策略[J]. 东北电力大学学报, 2023, 43 (4): 90- 100.
	ZHANG Rufeng, YANG Zedong, YAN Kefei. Coordinative optimization strategy for fault recovery and maintenance of regional integrated electricity-natural gas system[J]. Journal of Northeast Electric Power University, 2023, 43 (4): 90- 100.
15	王楠, 张粒子, 袁喆, 等. 基于奔德斯算法的安全约束机组组合方法[J]. 电网技术, 2012, 36 (10): 203- 208.
	WANG Nan, ZHANG Lizi, YUAN Zhe, et al. A method for security constrained unit commitment based on benders algorithm[J]. Power System Technology, 2012, 36 (10): 203- 208.
16	毕如玉, 林涛, 陈汝斯, 等. 交直流混合电力系统的安全校正策略[J]. 电工技术学报, 2016, 31 (9): 50- 57. DOI
	BI Ruyu, LIN Tao, CHEN Rusi, et al. The security correction strategy in AC and DC hybrid power system[J]. Transactions of China Electrotechnical Society, 2016, 31 (9): 50- 57. DOI
17	韦肖燕, 李欣然, 钱军, 等. 采用储能电源辅助的暂态稳定紧急控制方法[J]. 电工技术学报, 2017, 32 (18): 286- 300.
	WEI Xiaoyan, LI Xinran, QIAN Jun, et al. Power system transient stability emergency control method assisted by energy storage[J]. Transactions of China Electrotechnical Society, 2017, 32 (18): 286- 300.
18	陈昊, 万秋兰, 王玉荣. 基于厚尾均值广义自回归条件异方差族模型的短期风电功率预测[J]. 电工技术学报, 2016, 31 (5): 91- 98.
	CHEN Hao, WAN Qiulan, WANG Yurong. Short-term wind power forecast based on fat-tailed generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity-in-mean type models[J]. Transactions of China Electrotechnical Society, 2016, 31 (5): 91- 98.
19	樊庆东, 尹纯亚, 李凤婷, 等. 考虑无功功率影响的后续换相失败抑制策略[J]. 智慧电力, 2023, 51 (11): 98- 105.
	FAN Qingdong, YIN Chunya, LI Fengting, et al. Suppression strategy for subsequent commutation failure considering reactive power[J]. Smart Power, 2023, 51 (11): 98- 105.
20	兰飞, 林立成, 黎静华. 基于改进变分模态分解和信息融合的故障选线[J]. 东北电力大学学报, 2022, 42 (5): 1- 14.
	LAN Fei, LIN Licheng, LI Jinghua. Fault line selection based on improved variational mode decomposition and information fusion[J]. Journal of Northeast Electric Power University, 2022, 42 (5): 1- 14.
21	刘沐辰, 安景革, 程定一, 等. 基于双端同步响应的高压输电线路故障定位方法[J]. 智慧电力, 2023, 51 (12): 15- 22.
	LIU Muchen, AN Jingge, CHENG Dingyi, et al. Fault location method for HV transmission line based on two-terminal synchronous response[J]. Smart Power, 2023, 51 (12): 15- 22.
22	张宇辉, 邵毕成, 孔祥旭, 等. 基于EWT和改进Prony算法的超高压线路单相自适应重合闸故障识别方法[J]. 东北电力大学学报, 2022, 42 (4): 28- 34.
	ZHANG Yuhui, SHAO Bicheng, KONG Xiangxu, et al. Single phase adaptive reclosing fault property identification method for EHV transmission lines based on EWT and improved prony algorithm[J]. Journal of Northeast Electric Power University, 2022, 42 (4): 28- 34.
23	孙端航, 李本新. 考虑风电不确定性的电网状态检修策略[J]. 东北电力大学学报, 2023, 43 (4): 65- 73.
	SUN Duanhang, LI Benxin. Condition-based maintenance scheduling for power transmission system considering wind power uncertainty[J]. Journal of Northeast Electric Power University, 2023, 43 (4): 65- 73.
24	王义军, 倪斌伟, 张哲, 等. 考虑二次限流的新型限流断路器拓扑设计[J]. 东北电力大学学报, 2023, 43 (1): 76- 84.
	WANG Yijun, NI Binwei, ZHANG Zhe, et al. Topology design of new current limiting circuit breaker considering secondary current limiting[J]. Journal of Northeast Electric Power University, 2023, 43 (1): 76- 84.
25	李吉峰, 唐克, 王孜航, 等. 计及多源互补特性的新型电力系统分布式电源承载能力评估[J]. 东北电力大学学报, 2023, 43 (1): 62- 68.
	LI Jifeng, TANG Ke, WANG Zihang, et al. Assessment of distributed power generations bearing capacity of modern power systems with multi-sources complementary characteristics[J]. ournal of Northeast Electric Power University, 2023, 43 (1): 62- 68.

[1]	Weimin ZHENG, Yangqing DAN, Chenxuan WANG, Jiahui WU, Yunfeng ZHU. Evaluation of Renewable Energy Consumption Capacity in Power Grid Considering the Synergistic Effect of Wind-Photovoltaic- Hydro-Thermal Power [J]. Electric Power, 2023, 56(12): 248-254.
[2]	ZHU Lin, HAN Tao, DONG Yinghua, YU Yabo, XUE Yulong. Reliability Evaluation of Photovoltaic System Based on Time Varying Factors [J]. Electric Power, 2023, 56(1): 158-165.
[3]	LIU Yihan, WANG Yufei. Exploring the Evolution Mechanism and Active Defense of Cross-Domain Cascading Failures in New Type Power System [J]. Electric Power, 2022, 55(2): 62-72,81.
[4]	WEI Mingkui, ZHOU Quan, SONG Yuyan, WANG Yuhong, ZHOU Hong, CAI Shaorong, JIANG Li. Identification of Vulnerable Lines in Transmission Network for Cascading Failure Based on PageRank Algorithm [J]. Electric Power, 2021, 54(5): 74-82.
[5]	WANG Yufei, QIU Jian, LI June. A Station Level Early Warning Method of Cascading Failures Across Space Based on Attack Gain and Cost Principle in GCPS [J]. Electric Power, 2020, 53(1): 92-99.
[6]	YANG Chaoping, MA Zhiyuan, SHEN Chen, ZHANG Shuang, GU Yujia. Rapid Search of Cascading Failure Serious Paths in Power Systems Based on Vulnerable Line Identification Results [J]. Electric Power, 2017, 50(9): 66-71.
[7]	ZHANG Weifeng, CHE Yanbo, LIN Jikeng, HU Shijun, LIU Hui, WEI Wenhui, LIN Changnian. Power System Reliability Evaluation Based on Improved Sampling Method [J]. Electric Power, 2015, 48(5): 56-63.