Time-of-Use Pricing Model Considering the Risk of Cost Transmission in Multi-level Market Agent Electricity Purchase

doi:10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202503013

Abstract

Abstract:

Aiming at the current issue that the intra-provincial time-of-use (TOU) electricity pricing mechanism overlooks the impact of transaction costs in electricity markets above the provincial level and ignores the risk of cost transmission for agent purchasers, this paper proposes a TOU electricity pricing model that considers the risk of cost transmission in multi-level market for agent electricity procurement. Firstly, a multi-level market electricity procurement decision-making model is established based on the objective of minimizing electricity procurement costs. Then, probabilistic scenarios are used to describe prediction deviations of spot market prices and user responses. Conditional value at risk (CVaR) is adopted as the risk assessment indicator for cost transmission. A TOU electricity pricing model is constructed with the dual objectives of maximizing the transmission of procurement cost fluctuations from upper-level markets and minimizing the transmission risk for agent electricity purchasers. Finally, k-means and particle swarm optimization (PSO) are used to solve the model. Case study shows that the proposed model can more accurately reflect the cost and risk of multi-level markets, deliver integrated price signals to users, and provide risk analysis for electricity retailers under multi-level market transactions.

Key words: time-of-use price, agent-based electricity purchase, multi-level market, conditional value at risk, transmission risk

WANG Siqi, CAO Fang, YAO Li. Time-of-Use Pricing Model Considering the Risk of Cost Transmission in Multi-level Market Agent Electricity Purchase[J]. Electric Power, 2025, 58(11): 25-37.

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URL: https://www.electricpower.com.cn/EN/10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202503013

https://www.electricpower.com.cn/EN/Y2025/V58/I11/25

Figures/Tables 15

Fig.1 Components of deferred cost transmission over the timeline

Fig.2 Time-of-use pricing model framework considering multi-level market agent purchase cost transmission risks

Fig.3 TOU pricing model solution process considering multi-level market agent purchase cost transmission risks

Fig.4 Flow of TOU electricity price optimization using particle swarm optimization

Fig.5 Original load curve

Fig.6 Historical inter-provincial and intra-provincial clearing volumes and spot market electricity prices

Fig.7 Relationship between time-of-use electricity prices and iteration number

Fig.8 Comparison of TOU prices

Fig.9 Purchase cost difference between participation and non-participation in multi-level spot markets for electricity agents in decision-making

Fig.10 Comparison of energy cost fluctuations and TOU price variations

Table 1 Comparison of different pricing methods

电价制定方法	电价/(元·(MW·h)^–1)			传导成本/元
电价制定方法	峰时段	平时段	谷时段	传导成本/元
本文方法	750	510	261	1633896.54
峰时段上浮50% 谷时段下降50%	765	510	255	676208.00
峰时段上浮70% 谷时段下降40%	867	510	306	1691854.00

Table 2 Peak-valley electricity pricing considering different risk components 单位：元/(MW·h)

时段	风险组成			原始电价
时段	仅预测偏差	仅上季度延迟传导费用	考虑全部风险	原始电价
峰时段	750.0000	815.3315	821.2707	759.0000
平时段	518.1385	582.2619	527.3182	510.0000
谷时段	275.4164	285.6157	342.7065	261.0000
平均	560.1374	611.2479	611.4978	555.5590

Fig.11 Electricity price trends under different levels of deferred cost transmission from the previous quarter

Table 3 TOU prices considering transmission risk under different variances

方差	峰时段/(元·(MW·h)^–1)	平时段/(元·(MW·h)^–1)	谷时段/(元·(MW·h)^–1)	平均电价/(元·(MW·h)^–1)	CVaR/元
0	815.3315	582.2619	285.6157	611.2479	0
0.2	821.2707	527.3182	342.7065	611.4978	6847.3127
0.4	836.3760	500.0000	350.0000	611.7199	13790.1740
0.6	845.7640	503.9207	329.6465	611.9619	20859.2143
0.8	837.3857	500.0000	349.9997	612.1684	26892.1059
1.0	838.0195	500.0000	350.0000	612.4499	35116.9070

Fig.12 CVaR values and electricity revenue under different confidence levels

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