Risk Assessment of Clean and Low-Carbon Energy Transformation Considering Superimposed Scenario of Multiple Factors

doi:10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202309122

Abstract

Abstract:

At present, China's clean and low-carbon energy transformation mainly faces four risks: sustainable supply, sociality, geography, and sanctions. This article establishes a risk assessment model for clean and low-carbon energy transformation and arranges 11 superposed scenarios of risk factors according to the combinations of "superposition of two factors, three factors, and all factors". Based on the analytic hierarchy process, the probability and impact degree of various scenarios in clean and low-carbon energy transformation are studied. On this basis, power grid enterprises are suggested as backbone enterprises serving clean and low-carbon energy transformation and promoting new power system construction. It is necessary to moderately advance the construction of power grids and the development of regulatory resources, promote the construction of risk warning, policy dynamic evaluation, and key raw materials for clean and low-carbon energy transformation, as well as research and development reserve mechanisms of "bottleneck" technology, and focus on preventing the impact of dual endogenous risks and dual external risks.

Key words: energy transformation, clean and low-carbon, multiple factors, superimposed scenarios, risk assessment

Yinan WANG, Jing LU, Xingtong CHEN, Hongcai DAI. Risk Assessment of Clean and Low-Carbon Energy Transformation Considering Superimposed Scenario of Multiple Factors[J]. Electric Power, 2024, 57(3): 183-189.

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URL: https://www.electricpower.com.cn/EN/10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202309122

https://www.electricpower.com.cn/EN/Y2024/V57/I3/183

Figures/Tables 5

References 15

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风险因素叠加情景	发生概率	影响程度
①地缘性+社会性	★★★	●
②制裁性+社会性	★★★	●
③可持续性供应+社会性	★★★★★	●●
④地缘性+制裁性	★★★★☆	●●
⑤可持续性供应+地缘性	★★★☆	●
⑥可持续性供应+制裁性	★★★★	●●
⑦地缘性+制裁性+社会性	★★☆	●●●
⑧可持续性供应+社会性+地缘性	★★	●●●
⑨可持续性供应+社会性+制裁性	★★	●●●●
⑩制裁性+地缘性+可持续性供应	★★★	●●●●
⑪社会性+地缘性+制裁性+可持续性供应	☆	●●●●●

风险因素叠加情景	发生概率	影响程度
①地缘性+社会性	★★★	●
②制裁性+社会性	★★★	●
③可持续性供应+社会性	★★★★★	●●
④地缘性+制裁性	★★★★☆	●●
⑤可持续性供应+地缘性	★★★☆	●
⑥可持续性供应+制裁性	★★★★	●●
⑦地缘性+制裁性+社会性	★★☆	●●●
⑧可持续性供应+社会性+地缘性	★★	●●●
⑨可持续性供应+社会性+制裁性	★★	●●●●
⑩制裁性+地缘性+可持续性供应	★★★	●●●●
⑪社会性+地缘性+制裁性+可持续性供应	☆	●●●●●

风险因素叠加情景	发生概率	概率区间/%	平均概率/%
①地缘性+社会性	★★★	(20, 30]	25.0
②制裁性+社会性	★★★	(20, 30]	25.0
③可持续性供应+社会性	★★★★★	(45, 100]	72.5
④地缘性+制裁性	★★★★☆	(40, 45]	42.5
⑤可持续性供应+地缘性	★★★☆	(30, 35]	32.5
⑥可持续性供应+制裁性	★★★★	(35, 40]	37.5
⑦地缘性+制裁性+社会性	★★☆	(15, 20]	17.5
⑧可持续性供应+社会性+ 地缘性	★★	(10, 15]	12.5
⑨可持续性供应+社会性+ 制裁性	★★	(10, 15]	12.5
⑩制裁性+地缘性+可持续性供应	★★★	(20, 30]	25.0
⑪社会性+地缘性+制裁性+ 可持续性供应	☆	(0, 5]	2.5

风险因素叠加情景	发生概率	概率区间/%	平均概率/%
①地缘性+社会性	★★★	(20, 30]	25.0
②制裁性+社会性	★★★	(20, 30]	25.0
③可持续性供应+社会性	★★★★★	(45, 100]	72.5
④地缘性+制裁性	★★★★☆	(40, 45]	42.5
⑤可持续性供应+地缘性	★★★☆	(30, 35]	32.5
⑥可持续性供应+制裁性	★★★★	(35, 40]	37.5
⑦地缘性+制裁性+社会性	★★☆	(15, 20]	17.5
⑧可持续性供应+社会性+ 地缘性	★★	(10, 15]	12.5
⑨可持续性供应+社会性+ 制裁性	★★	(10, 15]	12.5
⑩制裁性+地缘性+可持续性供应	★★★	(20, 30]	25.0
⑪社会性+地缘性+制裁性+ 可持续性供应	☆	(0, 5]	2.5

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