Risk Assessment and Prevention of Extreme Events in Power Systems

doi:10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.201912030

Abstract

Abstract: Aimed at ordinary risk, the traditional risk assessment method cannot reflect the destructive effects of extreme events on power systems. Based on the theory of value-at-risk in financial field, a method is proposed to evaluate and quantify the extreme risk of power systems as a complement to traditional risk assessment method. The extreme value risk assessment method is used to analyze the effects of extreme events on power system stability, which can reflect the serious consequences on the power system stability caused by extreme events with low probabilities. Based on the extreme risk assessment of the cyber-attack events and extreme disaster events of power systems, the proposed method has been proved feasible through comparison of the results of the traditional risk assessment method and the extreme value risk assessment method. Meanwhile, based on the vulnerability and anti-vulnerability of power systems, it's concluded that the key to prevent extreme risk is to coordinate the ordinary risk and extreme risk.

Key words: extreme events in power system, extreme value theory, risk assessment, risk prevention

DING Maosheng, SUN Weijia, CAI Xingpu, WANG Qi. Risk Assessment and Prevention of Extreme Events in Power Systems[J]. Electric Power, 2020, 53(1): 32-39,65.

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URL: https://www.electricpower.com.cn/EN/10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.201912030

https://www.electricpower.com.cn/EN/Y2020/V53/I1/32

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