Research on Electricity Supply and Demand Forecasting and Efficient Path of Electricity Consumption in Xinjiang

doi:10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.201706063

Abstract

Abstract: Scientific and reasonable forecasting on the supply and demand of the whole society power consumption in Xinjiang cannot only provide a reference for power grid planning and operation, but also is of great significance to the policy making for power source construction and electricity consumption and to the sustainable development of regional power grid. Firstly, this paper forecasts the electricity demand of Xinjiang under several scenarios from 2017 to 2030, and it is concluded that the whole society electricity consumption in Xinjiang in 2030 will reach 282.3 billion kW·h to 383.9 billion kW·h. And then, an analysis is made on the prospective power supply in Xinjiang, and it is concluded that Xinjiang will face the problem of power supply significantly exceeding the demand during the period of 13th Five-Year Plan (2016-2020). Finally, it is proposed that promoting the construction of outgoing channel of Xinjiang’s electricity, building strong 750 kV backbone power grid and implementing the strategy of Xinjiang electrification are the main efficient paths for the solution to the power overproduction in Xinjiang.

Key words: electricity demand, electricity supply, excess production capacity, Xinjiang electrification, UHV construction

CLC Number:

TM715

GUO Sen, CUI Yongjun, JIA Hao, ZHAO Mingrui, WANG Yuwei, ZHAO Huiru, REN Yisheng. Research on Electricity Supply and Demand Forecasting and Efficient Path of Electricity Consumption in Xinjiang[J]. Electric Power, 2018, 51(5): 147-153.

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URL: https://www.electricpower.com.cn/EN/10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.201706063

https://www.electricpower.com.cn/EN/Y2018/V51/I5/147

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