Saturated Electricity Demand Forecast Based on Amended Self-Adaptive Logistic Model

doi:10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.2017.05.114.07

Abstract

Abstract: Saturated electricity demand is a pivotal index in power grid development. It is of great significance for power system planning to research on saturation trend and to forecast electricity demand saturation time and scale. Firstly, process of electricity demand growth is divided into three stages. Secondly, an amended self-adaptive Logistic model is proposed. Finally, with the application results to electricity demand in East China, the accuracy and practicability of proposed model is verified.

Key words: amended self-adaptive Logistic model, saturated electricity demand forecast, power grid planning, stages theory

CLC Number:

TM715

YANG Taihua, CHEN Yin. Saturated Electricity Demand Forecast Based on Amended Self-Adaptive Logistic Model[J]. Electric Power, 2017, 50(5): 114-120.

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URL: https://www.electricpower.com.cn/EN/10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.2017.05.114.07

https://www.electricpower.com.cn/EN/Y2017/V50/I5/114

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