Table of Content

05 May 2018, Volume 51 Issue 5

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Hybrid Topology of Modular Multilevel Converter with DC Fault Blocking Capability

LUO Yinghong, XU Yijia, SHI Tongtong, LIU Yunhua

2018, 51(5):  1-9.  DOI: 10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.201711180

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When reverse blocking MMC (RBSM-MMC) topology process fault current at DC side, huge overvoltage occurs in the lower tube reverse blocking IGBT. The block needs to meet very high pulse blocking consistence requirement in order to avoid components burning down due to huge overvoltage across IGBT. A hybrid model of RB and HB MMC (RB-HBSM-MMC) is proposed to resolve the problem of fault blocking capacity of traditional MMC and RBSM-MMC triggering consistence and spike voltage. Based on analysis of hybrid topology structure and fault blocking mechanism, a double-ends MMC-HVDC system is set up on PSCAD/EMTDC simulation platform. Simulation result shows that proposed RB-HBSM-MMC can effectively block DC-side fault current and isolate fault. Compared to RBSM-MMC, RB-HBSM-MMC can realize both effective blocking of DC-side fault current and transfer transient spike voltage to resolve overvoltage, reduce technical requirement for consistence of system triggering. It has good prospect of application.

Automatic Defect Locating Method for Relay Protection Systematic Testing

CHEN Chuang, CHEN Wenrui, LI Jin

2018, 51(5):  10-16.  DOI: 10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.201705110

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In order to increase efficiency and improve reliability of protective relaying system testing, an automatic defect locating method for relay protection systematic testing is proposed. Firstly, a data flow model, including port connection, publishing and subscribing models is developed. Based on proposed data flow model, a fault location method is established. In order to verify accuracy of developed models and proposed methods, a simplified protective relaying system is employed to present a case study. The proposed model and method are applied to the case and the fault location results demonstrate the accuracy and efficiency of proposed model and method during protective relaying testing.

Design and Development for Real-time Evaluation and Warning System of Electrical Reliability for Transmission Line Based on Meteorological Parameters

WANG Haitao, FENG Wanxing, TAO Hantao, WU Dawei, JIANG Zhibo, ZHANG Lei

2018, 51(5):  17-23,67.  DOI: 10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.201706030

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Transmission line operation status is closely related to its meteorological environment. In order to improve ability to manage and control natural disaster risk of transmission lines, a real-time evaluation and early warning system for electrical reliability of transmission lines is developed based on meteorological parameters. According to traditional icing growth, dynamic accumulation, thunderstorm forecast and wind declination calculation models, with customized weather monitoring, numerical forecasting and other meteorological parameters from meteorological department, a risk evaluation and early warning system for icing flashover, pollution flashover, lightning and windage yaw flashover of transmission line is developed by adopting WorldWind 3D Geographic Information Framework and Web Service interface service technology. The system has been applied in some experiment lines. The evaluation and warning level output is basically consistent with actual operation. It is of great significance to grasp operating environment of transmission lines and take emergency measures before disaster emerging.

Research on All-Weather Security Monitoring Technology Applied to Submarine Cable

LIN Xueqian, WU Wengeng

2018, 51(5):  24-30.  DOI: 10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.201708185

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Due to the lack of efficient security monitoring technology, the submarine cable disruption occurs frequently caused by ship offending with hazards to the safety and stability of the cross-sea grid. For solving this problem, a safety monitoring technology for long-distance submarine cable with a good far-near complementation is proposed, which uses the integrated photo-electric radar and AIS system. First, the configuration and principle of the integrated photo-electric radar system is introduced. Then, the all-weather omni-directional safety monitoring and controlling process using this system in practical cases of the long-distance submarine cable is reported. The result shows that the submarine cables can work more safely and stably with a good performance and prospect in application by the support of this technology.

Analysis of a Dry-Type Reactor Fault Combined with COMSOL Thermal Field Simulation and High Frequency Pulse Oscillations

LUO Xin, HUANG Xuemin, ZHENG Wenjian, GU Yu, LIU Chuntao, TAN Huaan

2018, 51(5):  31-38.  DOI: 10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.201711141

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Focused on a single-phase earth fault of 35 kV dry-type reactor, comprehensive analysis is performed including impulse oscillating turn-to-turn insulation test, disassembly in manufacturer and COSMOL thermal field simulation. The cause of the accident is turn-to-turn insulation failure in the 5th package. Due to internal conductor burning, the preventive test of DC resistance measurement has limitation on insulation failure detection. Thermal field simulation of reactor is also performed, and results show that the hot spot of reactor during operation is in the 6th floor coating, which has 73.8 K temperature rise. Temperature rise on 5th, 7th, 14th, 15th package is also high compared to other packages which deteriorates device insulation. The analysis and simulation results provide valuable reference for device design, production, operation and testing.

Analysis on an Abnormal Trip of a 330-MW Turbine Unit and the Improvement of Its ETS System

ZHOU Xuzhan, YANG Yafei, ZHANG Shunli, DONG Jianpeng

2018, 51(5):  39-46.  DOI: 10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.201708278

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Through the analysis on the abnormal trip process of a 330-MW turbine unit, the principle of the logic protection card (LPC) based emergency trip system (ETS) system is clarified, and the design defect of the inconsistency between the protection and the first-out is identified. In the absence of SOE records, through the first-out illusion, the data in trip process are analyzed. Combined with a series of EH oil system investigation and comparison test, the real reason of the ETS system action is explained reasonably. Meanwhile, detailed measures to improve the reliability of the ETS system are proposed from the aspects of design principles, protection failure prevention and important measurement improvement.

Analysis of the Influence of the Added SCR Denitrification Unit on Cold End Corrosion of the Air Preheater

LI Chao

2018, 51(5):  47-51.  DOI: 10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.201612097

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Selective catalytic reduction technology is most widely used in the coal-fired power plant. Since some power plants have not retrofitted the air preheater in the process of denitration transformation, corrosion of the cold end components within the air preheater happens after a certain period of operation of the denitrification system. A 2×300 MW unit is taken as a case for this study to analyze the causes of the corrosion of the cold end components within the air preheater after the installation of the SCR denitrification. It concludes that the direct cause is the catalyst activity reduction some preventive measures and treatment suggestions are proposed from the operation management perspective.

Simulation Study on the DC Grounding Electrode Earth Potential Distribution of Northern Shaanxi Converter Station Based on ANSYS

MA Chenglian, WANG Letian, LI Bo, LI Yingjin, HAO Hongzhen, ZHAO Shujian, GUO Gan

2018, 51(5):  52-60.  DOI: 10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.201711169

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The distribution of earth surface potential needs to be calculated in UHVDC engineering planning and design. Based on the stratified earth resistivity data measured by magnetotelluric sounding method (MT method) from one China converter station project located in Daliushu Yan Village, Fugu County of Northern Shaanxi, a 6-layer earth soil stratification model is established. The potential distribution in the range of 100 km around the grounding electrode is analyzed by ANSYS under rated operating condition. The results show that the electric potential decreases rapidly in the range of 2 km around the DC grounding electrode, where the facilities of electric power, communications, railways and pipelines shall not be planned and built. The earth surface potential distribution of the built and planned substations and power plants in the area around the Northern Shaanxi converter station has been calculated, and the results can be used as a reference for the single pole operation debugging of Northern Shaanxi-Hubei UHVDC transmission project.

Load Shedding Scheme Configuration Based on Power Transfer Coefficient in Hybrid AC/DC Receiving-end Grid

CHEN Xiang, LING Weijia, SONG Yunting, DENG Hui, HUA Wen

2018, 51(5):  61-67.  DOI: 10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.201705105

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In hybrid AC/DC receiving-end grid, power shortage and power transfer would occur after DC blocked faults, and it could cause chain faults. A load shedding scheme configuration method is proposed through analysis of power transfer coefficient of DC or load shedding buses and AC transmission lines, along with consideration of load importance factor. The simulation results for a hybrid AC/DC receiving-end grid in Zhejiang power grid proves feasibility and effectiveness of proposed method.

Modeling and Simulation for Insulation Performance Analysis of Composite Transmission Line Tower Under Lightning Overvoltage

ZHANG Yujiao, LIU Jiawei, HUANG Xiongfeng, SU Pan, ZHI Li, JIANG Lan

2018, 51(5):  68-74.  DOI: 10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.201610010

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The traditional multi-wave impedance model is utilized widely in lightning performance simulation analysis of composite material tower. However, the simulation result of lightning overvoltage is relatively large. In this paper, an improved multi-wave impedance model is proposed with consideration of the influence of capacitance of conductor to ground. The wave impedance is derived partly according to the 110 kV composite material tower. The equivalent capacitance of conductor to ground is calculated by finite element method (FEM), and the calculation results are compared with the traditional model. The results show that the over voltage of tower with consideration of capacitance decreases by 38%, which are close to the actual value, and the lightning withstand performance of composite material tower is optimal under the grounding down mode of shielding wire vertically suspended on the center line between the two circuit lines.

On-load Tap-changing Technology of Distribution Transformer

WANG Jinli, MA Zhao, PAN Xu, WANG Li

2018, 51(5):  75-79,100.  DOI: 10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.201707204

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Because of high penetration level of Distributed Generations (DGs) and rapid growth of Electric Vehicles (EVs) loads, distribution network voltage fluctuation problem becomes more and more prominent. Voltage control of distribution network is of great significance to stabilize voltage and raise voltage passing rate. The on-load tap-changing of distribution transformer is one of the means to realize voltage control of distribution network. On-load tap-changing switch is key component of distribution transformer to achieve voltage regulation. Safe and reliable operation of on-load tap-changing distribution transformer is directly influenced by its technical performance. The on-load tap-changing schemes with free maintenance or no arc and no impact switch have been put forward, but their advantages and disadvantages have not been systematic analyzed. In this paper, application situation of voltage regulation technology at home and abroad is explored. The implementation methods of distribution transformer on-load tap-changing switch technology are described and divided into three categories: mechanical, power electronics and composite. Technical implementation principle and advantages and disadvantages of different on-load tap-changing models are analyzed. Development direction and further study focus of distribution transformer on-load tap-changing technology are also clarified.

Charging System Design of Mobile Rescue Charging Vehicle

YAO Xiangyu, JIANG Dong, SHAO Xianqing, ZHANG Jie

2018, 51(5):  80-86,117.  DOI: 10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.201701062

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The rescue for broken-down vehicles is becoming increasingly important with the increasing quantity of electric vehicles. Considering the situation of the shortage and unbalanced distribution of charging facilities, , a design of charging system for mobile charging vehicle is proposed and verified especially aimed at the reality of lacking mobile charging rescue facilities. The charging system consists four parts including the power generator, the power supply before DC bus, the integrated AC-DC charger and the large capacity energy storage battery. The safe and green charging system can be flexibly applied to various types of electric vehicles with a good compatibility.

Research on the Technology to Improve the Flexibility of Thermal Power Plants

SU Peng, WANG Wenjun, YANG Guang, YU Fengxin, LIU Qijun

2018, 51(5):  87-94.  DOI: 10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.201701049

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In light of the increasing imbalance between the electric and heat loads during the heating period in the Sanbei area, it is critical that the thermal power units can participate in deep peak load regulation and realize the thermoelectric decoupling during that period of time. The technical schemes for improving the flexibility of the thermal power units are analyzed and studied in details from different aspects, such as, the technology roadmap, the scope of applications, etc. The hot water thermal energy storage system and electric boiler system are devised according to the specific project conditions. The analysis indicated that the hot water storage system, the electric boiler system, and the temperature and pressure reduced heat supplying system can all enhance the operational flexibility of the thermal power units and increase the peak load regulation depth of the unit. The different schemes also have their own scopes of application.

The Research on the Self-Startup Technology of Steam Turbines Based on the Risk Analysis of Fuzzy Numbers

WANG Zhijie, WANG Xihui, ZHU Xiaoxing, ZHENG Zhong

2018, 51(5):  95-100.  DOI: 10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.201703006

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An intelligent control system for steam turbines is designed based on the risk analysis of fuzzy numbers. Through studying the operational characteristics of steam turbines, the startup process is divided into several sequential steps. By using the risk analysis method based on the similarity of fuzzy numbers, the risk in the startup process of steam turbines is forecasted and controlled. The execution of the next step is then determined by combining the experience of operators, and the appropriate startup path could be planned accordingly. For the first time, this technology realized the self-startup control using a non-thermal stress model of steam turbines, and it provides significant insight on the study and applications of the self-startup technology of domestically produced turbines.

Application of Single Series Auxiliaries in Luoyang Thermal Power Plant

LIU Baicheng, ZHAO Hongmin, HE Shengjie, LI Huawei, LI Meishuang, ZHANG Jiwen

2018, 51(5):  101-105.  DOI: 10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.201608066

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At present, domestic and foreign thermal power companies continue to develop new energy-saving technologies to reduce the engineering and maintenance costs. Based on the study of single series auxiliaries in Luoyang Thermal Power Plant, the economy and reliability of the single and double series configuration of the main auxiliaries of 300 MW coal-fired units are analyzed comprehensively. This paper focuses on the selection of three major fans, compares the engineering investment and energy-saving benefit of single series auxiliaries s, and optimizes the thermal control to improve the reliability of single series auxiliaries. The configuration scheme is presented based on the conclusions. The technical approaches for unit reliability improvement are proposed as well.

Analysis on Type Selection of Circulating Water Pump for Large Steam Turbines

MU Chunhua, CHENG Dongtao, JU Wenping, MA Tingshan

2018, 51(5):  106-110.  DOI: 10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.201701059

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The improper selection of circulating water pump type may affect the revamping effect directly and does not occur rarely. Based on the analysis of the selection principles, it is proposed that the key is to match the design working point of the circulating water pump with the resistance characteristics of the circulating water system. In addition, the resistance characteristics of the circulating water system from actual measurements can provide scientific support for the selection of the circulating water pump types. Taking the upgrade of a 300 MW steam turbine as an example, the selection of circulating water pump type is based on the measured resistance characteristics of the circulating water system. The selected circulating water pump type is more scientific and reasonable than that in the original design.

Study on the Removal Characteristics of Dissolved Organic Matter in the Circulating Water by Enhanced Coagulation

HU Dalong, LI Meizhen, WANG Yuanyuan, XU Zhen, JIANG Qi

2018, 51(5):  111-117.  DOI: 10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.201704111

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The high concentration of organic matter in circulating water may easily cause microbial growth and membrane fouling. Removing organic matter could improve the utilization of circulating water. The removal characteristics of dissolved organic matter in the circulating water by enhanced coagulation were investigated through conventional chemical analysis in combination with UV-visible spectra, gel filtration chromatography (GPC) and three -dimensional fluorescence. The results indicated that with the increase of FeCl₃ dosage within the range of 0-120 mg/L, the DOM removal rate went up with molecules condensation degree reduced and the molecular weight decreased. Under the condition of FeCl₃ dosage of 120 mg/L, the removal rate of TOC and SCOD were 54.06% and 59.71%, respectively; fluorescence intensity Fmax of humic substances C1, C2 and protein materials C3 were down 48.02%, 66.38% and 22.27%, respectively. Enhanced coagulation could effectively reduce the DOM in circulating water. Especially for those humic substances, which was difficult to be biodegradable, the removal effect was significant. Therefore, enhanced coagulation treatment of circulating water could be used to improve the operation stability of circulating water system and lay a good foundation for the further membrane treatment of circulating water.

Formulation of Corrosion Products in Low Temperature Feedwater Drain of Power Plant

JIANG Dongfang, ZHANG Mian, KHAN Izhar Hsan, WANG Chao, ZHU Zhongliang, ZHANG Naiqiang, XU Hong

2018, 51(5):  118-122,133.  DOI: 10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.201802019

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Originated from carbon steels in feedwater drain due to flow accelerated corrosion, the corrosion products may be transported everywhere throughout the entire steam-water system, which can seriously impact the operation security and lifespan of thermal unit. The generation model of corrosion product in feedwater drain is built based on the mass balance. Then the effect of three main factors on generation process is analyzed, i.e., porosity of oxide layer, diffusivity of iron in the fluid and fluid pH value. The result data shows the corrosion rate is proportional to the former two items, but inversely proportional to the fluid pH. The porosity of oxide layer can be reduced significantly by virtue of oxygenated treatment. However, the more complicated of pipeline arrangement and the rougher of the pipeline surface, the greater of diffusivity will be reached in the fluid. In actual operation of power plant, the formulation of corrosion products can be effectively reduced by restraining the flow accelerated corrosion in combination with the optimization of pipeline structure and water treatment under the condition of optimum pH and dissolved oxygen.

Study on Localized Corrosion Between Oxides Dissolution and Substrate Material in the Process of Chemical Cleaning for Superheaters

DENG Yuqiang, YE Zhi, QI Dongdong, ZHANG Shaoyong, ZHANG Xiaoping, CAI Guobao, WANG Sipu, ZHANG Tongtong

2018, 51(5):  123-127,146.  DOI: 10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.201702022

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Localized electrochemical corrosion may take place at region of oxide exfoliation or cracking in the process of chemical cleaning for superheaters. After the chemical cleaning process, the corrosive pits over 400 μm deep are detected on both cut superheater samples and simulated testing tubes, especially in iron steel such as T22, 12Cr1MoV and T91. The monitoring evaluation and corrosion control technology are carried out through the electrochemical corrosion test device.Three kinds of superheater tube samples are selected, such as T22, 12Cr1MoV and T91, and the corrosion current density between the intact oxidation tube electrode and the bare metal electrode during the oxidation skin cleaning process is measured. The change of corrosion current density after the addition of reductant is investigated by contrast test. It is shown that the local corrosion rate during chemical cleaning of the exfoliated parts of the materials used in the experiment is tens times of the standard values, which can be controlled by adding ascorbic acid in time.

Experimental Study on Gas-Liquid Partition Coefficient and Thermal Decomposition Characteristics of Ethanolamine in High-Temperature Aqueous Systems

ZHU Zhiping, YANG Lei, QIAO Yue, CAO Jie, ZHAO Yongfu

2018, 51(5):  128-133.  DOI: 10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.201708272

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Ethanolamine (ETA) has been selected as the pH control agent for the secondary loop in the third generation nuclear power plant. However, the research on ETA gas-liquid partition coefficient and high-temperature degradation is not comprehensive enough to satisfy the application requirements of various parameters in nuclear power plant. In this paper, the working pressure and temperature of the secondary loop of nuclear power plant are simulated by high-pressure autoclave. The gas and liquid samples are obtained by special sampling device. The relative volatility, thermal decomposition rate and total organic carbon (TOC) content of samples at different temperatures are studied by ion chromatography and TOC analysis methods. The calculating formula for the molar ratio of total alkali in gas phase to total alkali in liquid phase is proposed to evaluate the distribution of gas-liquid alkalinity. It is indicated that the lower distribution coefficient of ETA is beneficial to the pH balance of the secondary loop. ETA exhibits good thermal stability under the oxygen-free condition, with the thermal decomposition rate less than 1%/h even at 300℃. But the thermal degradation rate of ETA increases in the presence of oxygen, with higher concentration of ammonia ion and lower content of formic acid, acetic acid and glycolic acid in the decomposition product. The experimental results can provide the reference for the chemical control of cycle water chemistry in nuclear power plant.

Numerical Simulation on Tube Bundle Demister and Development of High Efficiency Demister

QIU Guizhi, ZHANG Zhigang, SONG Yin, GUO Tingting, WANG Haigang, JIA Jia, WANG Heqi

2018, 51(5):  134-140.  DOI: 10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.201706151

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The computational fluid dynamics (CFD) method is used to simulate numerically the two-phase gas-liquid flow in tube bundle demister of wet flue gas desulfurization (WFGD) system for ultra-low dust emission. The double tube structure is introduced into the tube bundle demister. In addition, by modifying the parameters of the tube structure and the blade structure, the effects of structural parameters of the tube bundle demister on demisting efficiency and pressure loss are investigated. The results show that the double tube structure with multistage-series can effectively improve the demisting efficiency, especially for small droplets. The variation of outlet angle, leaf length and leaf number of curvilinear blade have significant impacts on the efficiency of fog removal and pressure drop. On this basis, three types of high-efficiency tube bundle demister are further proposed and then verified by virtue of cold test bench, with one of the optimized prototype applied in the retrofit of the demister of 300 MW power plant. The operation results exhibited satisfactory performance with the mass concentration of soot emission lower than 5 mg/m³(dry base, 6%O₂) under 50%~100% unit load while the max resistance below 300 Pa under full load operation.

Predictions of CO₂ Emission of Power Generation in the Circumstance of Applying Non-Hydro Renewable Energy Quota

WU Zhiquan

2018, 51(5):  141-146.  DOI: 10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.201607089

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The power generation is the key area of carbon emission reduction in China. In order to reach the goals of reducing the CO₂ emission per unit of GDP by 40%~45% from that in 2005 and raising the weight of the non-fossil energy in the primary energy consumption to around 15%, the National Energy Administration plans to introduce the renewable portfolio standard, i.e. the ratio of the electricity production from non-hydro renewable energy resources to that from the coal fired power stations shall be higher than 15%. Based on the national “Energy Development Strategy Action Plan (2014–2020)” and the proposed policy of the renewable energy quota, the CO₂ emission of the power generation in 2020 is predicted, and the targets of carbon emission reduction are calculated. The results show that by applying the quota (15%) of non-hydro renewable energy, the electricity generated by non-hydro renewable energy resources will reach 7 514×10⁸ kW·h, accounting for 9.94% of the total generation, and the CO₂ emission will be 580.5 kg/(MW·h), decreasing by 27.4% from that in 2005.

Research on Electricity Supply and Demand Forecasting and Efficient Path of Electricity Consumption in Xinjiang

GUO Sen, CUI Yongjun, JIA Hao, ZHAO Mingrui, WANG Yuwei, ZHAO Huiru, REN Yisheng

2018, 51(5):  147-153.  DOI: 10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.201706063

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Scientific and reasonable forecasting on the supply and demand of the whole society power consumption in Xinjiang cannot only provide a reference for power grid planning and operation, but also is of great significance to the policy making for power source construction and electricity consumption and to the sustainable development of regional power grid. Firstly, this paper forecasts the electricity demand of Xinjiang under several scenarios from 2017 to 2030, and it is concluded that the whole society electricity consumption in Xinjiang in 2030 will reach 282.3 billion kW·h to 383.9 billion kW·h. And then, an analysis is made on the prospective power supply in Xinjiang, and it is concluded that Xinjiang will face the problem of power supply significantly exceeding the demand during the period of 13th Five-Year Plan (2016-2020). Finally, it is proposed that promoting the construction of outgoing channel of Xinjiang’s electricity, building strong 750 kV backbone power grid and implementing the strategy of Xinjiang electrification are the main efficient paths for the solution to the power overproduction in Xinjiang.

Research on Xinjiang-Shanghai Wind Power Production Benefit Compensation Cooperation Strategy

ZHANG Shixiang, SHEN Ying

2018, 51(5):  154-159,184.  DOI: 10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.201607090

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As the focus for nation’s new energy industry revitalization, wind power has been developing rapidly in these years. But the development of wind power in different regions are significantly unbalanced. According to the basic situation of wind power and finance in Shanghai and Xinjiang, a distinct gap between this two areas is found. And as the losses of ecological environment and wind curtailment are mainly borne by local governments and wind power generation companies, the gap will increase between different areas. In this paper, a compensation strategy for Xinjiang is built by using game analysis model between Shanghai and Xinjiang so as to strengthen the cooperation between the two areas. According to the externalities of wind, the compensation amount is calculated in terms of environmental health losses and wind companies’ losses. In combination with the game analysis and policy of carbon trading market, some suggestions are proposed, such as distributing compensation according to the wind power benefits, promoting the construction of carbon emission trading market between Shanghai and Xinjiang, intensifying aid to Xinjiang through electric power, and improving Xinjiang people’s livelihood.

Research on Value Analysis and Business Model of Value-added Services of “Internet+” User-side Distributed Generation

YAN Hu, HUANG Bibin, LU Yudong, HONG Bowen, LIU Zhoubin

2018, 51(5):  160-165,178.  DOI: 10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.201704094

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In the times of big data, data value-added services may provide a new blue ocean for distributed power generation market. With the aim of "find data’s value, let data create value", this paper proposes a data industry chain for "internet +" user-side distributed generation according to analysis of its data value chain and relevant stakeholder. Then three kinds of value-added services are presented, which include “data as service”, “information as service”, and “knowledge as service”. To realize the data value and make value-added services to be a kind of profit way for companies, this paper builds a data-driven business model for value-added services of user-side distributed power generation, including cost advantage, value creation, value orientation, and value acquisition.

Study on the Monthly Power Load Forecasting Performance Based on regARIMA Model

SU Zhenyu, LONG Yong, ZHAO Liyan

2018, 51(5):  166-171.  DOI: 10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.201704041

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In order to explore the impact of outliers on the monthly power load forecasting performance, a seasonal ARIMA model considering the impact of outliers (regARIMA) is established. The actual monthly power load data series of 5 provinces recorded from January 1999 to December 2017 are used to verify the accuracy of power load forecasting. The empirical results show that the forecasting error of the regARIMA model considering the outliers impact is significantly reduced within samples for last 3 years. The forecasting accuracy of the regARIMA out of samples for 12 steps ahead is also improved to some extent.

Analysis on the Causes for the Decline of Electricity Consumption Intensity in Hunan Province

CHEN Huoyan, CHEN Jia, LI Kai, XIE Xintao

2018, 51(5):  172-178.  DOI: 10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.201701148

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To explore the causes for the sharp decline of unit GDP power consumption in Hunan Province, the paper improves the accounting method for the industrial structure rationality evaluating indicators, and synthetizes the Theil index. A generalized additive model is established to study the impact mechanism and impact intensity of Hunan province’s industrial structure rationality, the energy consumption structure and technological progress on the intensity of the power consumption. The empirical results show that the rationality of industrial structure has significant and non-monotonic influence on the power consumption intensity, and the technological progress has significant and monotonic influence on the unit value-added power consumption, while the energy consumption structure has insignificant influence on the unit GDP power consumption. To verify the universality of the conclusions, the author further studies six provinces in central China, and all the results are consistent and strongly proves the correctness of the conclusions.

The Relationship Between Economy and the Electricity Consumption and Power Forecasting in Black Metal Smelting and Rolling Processing Industry in Anhui Province

WANG Bao, YANG Min, LI Zhou, XING Shengnan, XU Binghua

2018, 51(5):  179-184.  DOI: 10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.201707185

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Based on an analysis of the economic and power data of the black metal smelting and rolling processing industry in Anhui Province, this paper discusses the dynamic relationship between the main economic indicators of the black metal industry and electricity consumption, and finds out the root cause of the inconsistency between electricity data and economic indicators in that industry. Furthermore, by choosing reasonable economic indicators, the paper presents the quantitative relationship between the development situation and electricity demand trends of the black metal smelting and rolling processing industry in Anhui Province, based on which，a short-term electricity consumption forecasting is made.