Study on the Relationship Between Urbanization Process and Electricity Demand Growth

doi:10.11930/j.issn.10.11930.2015.2.145

Abstract

Abstract: This paper analyzes the influencing mechanism of urbanization process to electricity demand, studies the development law of urbanization rate and electricity consumption of domestic and foreign major countries. It summarizes the characteristics of the periodic growth of electricity demand in urbanization process, and proposes that there is a high positive correlation between urbanization and electricity demand growth. Then, this paper analyzes the correlation between China’s industrialization, urbanization, marketization, internationalization with electricity demand, finding out the highest correlation between urbanization and electricity demand. Thirdly, this paper builds a model for the relationship between urbanization process and total electricity consumption growth of China, proposing that there’ll be average 4.6% growth in total electricity consumption for each 1% increase of urbanization rate in the future increase from 50% to 75% of urbanization rate, and when the urbanization rate surpasses 75%, electricity demand growth will slow down. It also builds models for the relationship between urbanization process and electricity demand of Tianjin City, proposing that there’ll be average 8.8% growth in total electricity consumption and 890 000 kW increase in power load for each 1% increase of urbanization rate in the future increase from 80% to 90% of urbanization rate. Lastly, this paper gives recommendations that as China’s new round of promoting urbanization, relevant departments should pay more attention to the corresponding planning and construction of power generation and grid facilities and pay special concern to changes in spatial load caused by population transfer from countryside to cities and towns.

Key words: urbanization process, electricity demand, correlation, power load prediction, saturated load

CLC Number:

TM715

XIAO Xin，, ZHOU Yuhui, ZHANG Ning, HAN Xinyang, XUE Wanlei, TANG Xin, YIN Li. Study on the Relationship Between Urbanization Process and Electricity Demand Growth[J]. Electric Power, 2015, 48(2): 145-149.

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URL: https://www.electricpower.com.cn/EN/10.11930/j.issn.10.11930.2015.2.145

https://www.electricpower.com.cn/EN/Y2015/V48/I2/145

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