Research on Superior Combined Forecasting Method of Short-Term Bus Load and Its Application in Chengdu Grid

doi:10.11930/j.issn.10.11930.2015.8.97

Abstract

Abstract: Short-term bus load forecasting is the important premise for formulating overhaul plan, determining the annual operation mode and optimizing the load change and state estimation, and is very important for energy-saving generation dispatching and lean management of safety operation. In order to solve the shortcoming of the single forecasting method, a new superior combined forecasting method is proposed in this paper. According to the gray correlation index, point prediction accuracy index and interval forecasting effectiveness index in the sample interval and prediction interval, a series of concepts of comprehensive effectiveness of the forecasting method are introduced. By using the variance and covariance method, the weight coefficient of corresponding model is calculated. A case study of the 110 kV bus load in Chengdu grid shows that the proposed combined method is effective with high accuracy and stability.

Key words: power grid, bus load, combined forecasting, gray correlation, point prediction accuracy, interval forecasting effectiveness, comprehensive effectiveness

CLC Number:

TM714

CHEN Wu, XIAO Xianyong. Research on Superior Combined Forecasting Method of Short-Term Bus Load and Its Application in Chengdu Grid[J]. journal1, 2015, 48(8): 97-103.

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URL: https://www.electricpower.com.cn/EN/10.11930/j.issn.10.11930.2015.8.97

https://www.electricpower.com.cn/EN/Y2015/V48/I8/97

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