基于非对称误差修正模型的中国能源-经济-环境关系

doi:10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.2016.09.114.05

摘要/Abstract

摘要： G、H和J省作为中国不同发展阶段、不同资源区域的代表,均存在能源消费到经济增长的长期协整关系,且均存在能源消费到CO₂排放量的单向因果关系。从能源消费强度和碳生产率角度来看,G、H和J省能源消费增加1.00%将分别带动本地区0.76%、1.41%和1.44%的经济增长。当经济发展、能源消费的关系高于均衡状态时,G、H和J省将自发以0.064、0.039和0.240的速度回到均衡状态;当出现负偏离时,回到均衡的速度为0.042、0.023和0.110;在工业化阶段发展阶段,第二产业贡献率和能源利用效率越高,返回均衡状态的速度越大。

关键词: 能源, 经济, 区域差异, 非对称误差修正

Abstract: It was found that a long-run co-integration relationship exists from energy consumption to economic growth and unidirectional causality exists from energy consumption to carbon dioxide emissions. Specifically, when the energy consumption increases by 1% in the provinces of G, H and J, the economy will increase by 0.76%, 1.41% and 1.44%. When the relationship between economic growth and energy consumption deviates greatly from the long-term equilibrium, these three provinces will spontaneously return to equilibrium at the speed of 0.064, 0.039 and 0.240; when the opposite situation occurs, these numbers will be 0.042, 0.023 and 0.11. In the development stage of industrialization, the higher the rate of the secondary industry’s contribution is, the faster the return speed will be.

Key words: energy, economy, regional differences, asymmetric error correction model

中图分类号:

TM715

徐阳, 何永秀. 基于非对称误差修正模型的中国能源-经济-环境关系[J]. 中国电力, 2016, 49(9): 114-118.

XU Yang, HE Yongxiu. Regional Differences and Non-equilibrium Relationship Between Energy, Economy and Environment in China[J]. Electric Power, 2016, 49(9): 114-118.

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https://www.electricpower.com.cn/CN/Y2016/V49/I9/114

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