能源高质量发展下中国电力供需格局演变趋势

doi:10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202105124

中国电力 ›› 2021, Vol. 54 ›› Issue (11): 1-9,18.DOI: 10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202105124

能源高质量发展下中国电力供需格局演变趋势

单葆国, 冀星沛, 姚力, 马捷, 吴陈锐, 段金辉

国网能源研究院有限公司, 北京 102209

收稿日期:2021-05-26 修回日期:2021-09-07 出版日期:2021-11-05 发布日期:2021-11-16
作者简介:单葆国(1971-),男,硕士,高级工程师(教授级),从事能源经济模型、电力市场分析预测、电力需求与经济发展关系、电力需求侧管理等研究,E-mail:shanbaoguo@sgeri.sgcc.com.cn;冀星沛(1988-),男,通信作者,博士,从事能源电力供需分析预测研究,E-mail:jixingpei@sgeri.sgcc.com.cn
基金资助:
国家重点研发计划资助项目（高比例可再生能源并网的电力系统规划与运行基础理论，2016YFB0900101）；国家电网有限公司科技项目（国网新能源云智慧运营关键技术研究及应用实践，1400-202057409A-0-0-00）

Evolving Tendency of Electric Supply and Demand Pattern under the Circumstances of High-Quality Energy Development

SHAN Baoguo, JI Xingpei, YAO Li, MA Jie, WU Chenrui, DUAN Jinhui

State Grid Energy Research Institute Co., Ltd., Beijing 102209, China

Received:2021-05-26 Revised:2021-09-07 Online:2021-11-05 Published:2021-11-16
Supported by:
This work is supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (Basic Theory of Power System Planning and Operation for High Proportion Renewable Energy Integration, No.2016YFB0900101) and Science & Technology Project of SGCC(Research and Application Practice on Key Technologies of State Grid New Energy Cloud Smart Operation，No. 1400-202057409A-0-0-00).

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 为应对气候变化，世界各国都在加快能源转型，习近平总书记提出了“四个革命、一个合作”能源安全新战略和“碳达峰、碳中和”愿景，要求全力推动能源高质量发展，这将对中国电力供需格局产生深远影响。首先，提炼能源高质量发展的内涵、特征；其次，从消费侧、供给侧、技术、体制等角度研判能源高质量发展下电力行业的转型发展方向；最后，通过构建多区域“能源-经济-电力”分析预测模型体系，从电力需求、电力供应、跨区电力流、电力系统形态、电力市场交易等方面研究中国中长期电力供需格局的演变特征。

关键词: 能源高质量发展, 电力供需格局, 电力系统形态, 演变趋势, 电力市场

Abstract: To fight against climate change, countries around the world are accelerating the energy transition. General Secretary Xi Jinping put forward the “four revolutions, one cooperation” new strategy for energy security and the “carbon emission peaking, carbon neutrality” vision, demanding all efforts to promote high-quality energy development. They will have a profound impact on China’s electric supply and demand pattern. Firstly, this paper refines the connotation and characteristics of high-quality energy development. Secondly, we make the judgment about the transformation direction of the power industry from the perspectives of electric demand, electric supply, technology and market. Finally, through the construction of a multi-regional “energy–economy–power” model system, we analyze the evolving tendency of electric supply and demand pattern from the aspects of electric demand, electric supply, trans-regional power flow, power system pattern, and power market transaction.

Key words: high-quality energy development, electric supply and demand pattern, power system pattern, evolving tendency, electricity market

单葆国, 冀星沛, 姚力, 马捷, 吴陈锐, 段金辉. 能源高质量发展下中国电力供需格局演变趋势[J]. 中国电力, 2021, 54(11): 1-9,18.

SHAN Baoguo, JI Xingpei, YAO Li, MA Jie, WU Chenrui, DUAN Jinhui. Evolving Tendency of Electric Supply and Demand Pattern under the Circumstances of High-Quality Energy Development[J]. Electric Power, 2021, 54(11): 1-9,18.

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能源高质量发展下中国电力供需格局演变趋势

Evolving Tendency of Electric Supply and Demand Pattern under the Circumstances of High-Quality Energy Development

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能源高质量发展下中国电力供需格局演变趋势

Evolving Tendency of Electric Supply and Demand Pattern under the Circumstances of High-Quality Energy Development

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