Abstract: An estimation methodology and equations are created for evaluating the carbon mitigation potential of each mitigation technology in China’s power sector. In order to make the results repeatable and comparable, a bottom-up estimation is made of the mitigation potential in 2015, 2020, 2030, compared to the potential in 2005 when the technology is freezed. In this way, the key mitigation technologies are identified. The results show that the carbon emissions per power production in 2030 will decrease by 38% compared to 2005 under the planning scenario, reaching the current average level of developed countries. Under the enhanced scenario, because of the enhancd mitigation of nuclear, wind, CCS, PV, hydro, gas and(ultra)-supercritical, the emission intensity in 2030 can decrease by 53%, reaching the current advanced level of developed countries. In both of the two scenarios, the hydro, nuclear, on-shore wind and biomass contribute the most to the mitigation.

Key words: carbon mitigation, carbon emission, power generation, renewable energy