Electric Power ›› 2025, Vol. 58 ›› Issue (10): 180-187.DOI: 10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202506027
• New-Type Power Grid • Previous Articles Next Articles
ZHUO Dingming1(
), DU Rui1, YANG Yuantong1, GE Hailin1, YANG Jiawei2, XU Zhenzhen2, YI Yang3
Received:2025-06-10
Online:2025-10-23
Published:2025-10-28
Supported by:ZHUO Dingming, DU Rui, YANG Yuantong, GE Hailin, YANG Jiawei, XU Zhenzhen, YI Yang. Nuclear-Pumped Storage Combined Operation Planning Based on Production Simulation and Entropy Weight Method[J]. Electric Power, 2025, 58(10): 180-187.
| 方案 | 核电 总规模/ 万kW | 抽水蓄能 总规模/ 万kW | 联营核 电规模/ 万kW | 联营抽水 蓄能规模/ 万kW | 联营核 蓄配比 | 全省核电 等效利用 小时数/h | ||||||
| 1 | 1 706 | 885 | 0 | 0 | — | 7 000 | ||||||
| 2 | 1 706 | 885 | 120 | 43 | 2.8∶1 | 7 049 | ||||||
| 3 | 1 706 | 885 | 240 | 86 | 2.8∶1 | 7 098 | ||||||
| 4 | 1 706 | 885 | 360 | 129 | 2.8∶1 | 7 148 | ||||||
| 5 | 1 706 | 885 | 480 | 172 | 2.8∶1 | 7 197 | ||||||
| 6 | 1 706 | 885 | 600 | 215 | 2.8∶1 | 7 246 | ||||||
| 7 | 1 706 | 885 | 720 | 258 | 2.8∶1 | 7 295 | ||||||
| 8 | 1 706 | 885 | 840 | 301 | 2.8∶1 | 7 345 |
Table 1 Production simulation schemes under different "nuclear -pumped storage" combined operation scales
| 方案 | 核电 总规模/ 万kW | 抽水蓄能 总规模/ 万kW | 联营核 电规模/ 万kW | 联营抽水 蓄能规模/ 万kW | 联营核 蓄配比 | 全省核电 等效利用 小时数/h | ||||||
| 1 | 1 706 | 885 | 0 | 0 | — | 7 000 | ||||||
| 2 | 1 706 | 885 | 120 | 43 | 2.8∶1 | 7 049 | ||||||
| 3 | 1 706 | 885 | 240 | 86 | 2.8∶1 | 7 098 | ||||||
| 4 | 1 706 | 885 | 360 | 129 | 2.8∶1 | 7 148 | ||||||
| 5 | 1 706 | 885 | 480 | 172 | 2.8∶1 | 7 197 | ||||||
| 6 | 1 706 | 885 | 600 | 215 | 2.8∶1 | 7 246 | ||||||
| 7 | 1 706 | 885 | 720 | 258 | 2.8∶1 | 7 295 | ||||||
| 8 | 1 706 | 885 | 840 | 301 | 2.8∶1 | 7 345 |
| 电源 类型 | 利用小时数/h | |||||||||||||||
| 方案1 | 方案2 | 方案3 | 方案4 | 方案5 | 方案6 | 方案7 | 方案8 | |||||||||
| 煤电 | 3 399 | 3 378 | 3 354 | 3 331 | 3 310 | 3 287 | 3 267 | 3 255 | ||||||||
| 气电 | 1 314 | 1 323 | 1 352 | 1 378 | 1 390 | 1 419 | 1 439 | 1 459 | ||||||||
| 水电 | 2 435 | 2 435 | 2 435 | 2 435 | 2 435 | 2 435 | 2 435 | 2 435 | ||||||||
| 抽蓄 | 1 553 | 1 555 | 1 561 | 1 566 | 1 572 | 1 578 | 1 584 | 1 595 | ||||||||
| 核电 | 6 999 | 7 054 | 7 110 | 7 164 | 7 220 | 7 275 | 7 331 | 7 388 | ||||||||
Table 2 Conventional power utilization hours in 2030
| 电源 类型 | 利用小时数/h | |||||||||||||||
| 方案1 | 方案2 | 方案3 | 方案4 | 方案5 | 方案6 | 方案7 | 方案8 | |||||||||
| 煤电 | 3 399 | 3 378 | 3 354 | 3 331 | 3 310 | 3 287 | 3 267 | 3 255 | ||||||||
| 气电 | 1 314 | 1 323 | 1 352 | 1 378 | 1 390 | 1 419 | 1 439 | 1 459 | ||||||||
| 水电 | 2 435 | 2 435 | 2 435 | 2 435 | 2 435 | 2 435 | 2 435 | 2 435 | ||||||||
| 抽蓄 | 1 553 | 1 555 | 1 561 | 1 566 | 1 572 | 1 578 | 1 584 | 1 595 | ||||||||
| 核电 | 6 999 | 7 054 | 7 110 | 7 164 | 7 220 | 7 275 | 7 331 | 7 388 | ||||||||
| 电源 类型 | 发电量/(亿kW·h) | |||||||||||||||
| 方案1 | 方案2 | 方案3 | 方案4 | 方案5 | 方案6 | 方案7 | 方案8 | |||||||||
| 煤电 | ||||||||||||||||
| 气电 | 77.9 | 78.5 | 80.2 | 81.7 | 82.4 | 84.1 | 85.3 | 86.5 | ||||||||
| 水电 | 295.0 | 295.0 | 295.0 | 295.0 | 295.0 | 295.0 | 295.0 | 295.0 | ||||||||
| 抽蓄 | 137.4 | 137.7 | 138.2 | 138.6 | 139.1 | 139.6 | 140.2 | 141.2 | ||||||||
| 核电 | 1195.0 | |||||||||||||||
Table 3 Conventional power generation in 2030
| 电源 类型 | 发电量/(亿kW·h) | |||||||||||||||
| 方案1 | 方案2 | 方案3 | 方案4 | 方案5 | 方案6 | 方案7 | 方案8 | |||||||||
| 煤电 | ||||||||||||||||
| 气电 | 77.9 | 78.5 | 80.2 | 81.7 | 82.4 | 84.1 | 85.3 | 86.5 | ||||||||
| 水电 | 295.0 | 295.0 | 295.0 | 295.0 | 295.0 | 295.0 | 295.0 | 295.0 | ||||||||
| 抽蓄 | 137.4 | 137.7 | 138.2 | 138.6 | 139.1 | 139.6 | 140.2 | 141.2 | ||||||||
| 核电 | 1195.0 | |||||||||||||||
| 项目 | 成本/亿元 | |||||||||||||||
| 方案1 | 方案2 | 方案3 | 方案4 | 方案5 | 方案6 | 方案7 | 方案8 | |||||||||
| 煤电 | 634.2 | 632.4 | 629.5 | 626.7 | 624.8 | 622.0 | 620.1 | 618.8 | ||||||||
| 气电 | 56.1 | 56.5 | 57.7 | 58.8 | 59.3 | 60.6 | 61.4 | 62.3 | ||||||||
| 抽蓄 | 55.9 | 55.9 | 55.9 | 55.9 | 55.9 | 55.9 | 55.9 | 55.9 | ||||||||
| 核电 | 418.4 | 418.4 | 418.4 | 418.4 | 418.4 | 418.4 | 418.4 | 418.4 | ||||||||
| 风电 | 344.0 | 343.7 | 343.3 | 343.0 | 342.6 | 342.2 | 341.6 | 340.0 | ||||||||
| 光伏 | 31.1 | 31.1 | 31.1 | 31.0 | 31.0 | 31.0 | 31.0 | 30.9 | ||||||||
| 新能源弃电 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 3.0 | 4.7 | ||||||||
| 累计 | ||||||||||||||||
Table 4 Power generation cost under different "nuclear -pumped storage" combined operation scales
| 项目 | 成本/亿元 | |||||||||||||||
| 方案1 | 方案2 | 方案3 | 方案4 | 方案5 | 方案6 | 方案7 | 方案8 | |||||||||
| 煤电 | 634.2 | 632.4 | 629.5 | 626.7 | 624.8 | 622.0 | 620.1 | 618.8 | ||||||||
| 气电 | 56.1 | 56.5 | 57.7 | 58.8 | 59.3 | 60.6 | 61.4 | 62.3 | ||||||||
| 抽蓄 | 55.9 | 55.9 | 55.9 | 55.9 | 55.9 | 55.9 | 55.9 | 55.9 | ||||||||
| 核电 | 418.4 | 418.4 | 418.4 | 418.4 | 418.4 | 418.4 | 418.4 | 418.4 | ||||||||
| 风电 | 344.0 | 343.7 | 343.3 | 343.0 | 342.6 | 342.2 | 341.6 | 340.0 | ||||||||
| 光伏 | 31.1 | 31.1 | 31.1 | 31.0 | 31.0 | 31.0 | 31.0 | 30.9 | ||||||||
| 新能源弃电 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 3.0 | 4.7 | ||||||||
| 累计 | ||||||||||||||||
| 指标 | 理想 接近度 | 信息熵 | 信息 冗余度 | 权重 | ||||
| 1(煤电发电量) | 0.042 0 | 0.505 5 | 0.494 5 | 0.336 0 | ||||
| 2(新能源消纳率) | 0.042 0 | 0.511 1 | 0.488 9 | 0.332 2 | ||||
| 3(系统发电成本) | 0.042 0 | 0.511 7 | 0.488 3 | 0.331 8 |
Table 5 Key values of entropy weight method
| 指标 | 理想 接近度 | 信息熵 | 信息 冗余度 | 权重 | ||||
| 1(煤电发电量) | 0.042 0 | 0.505 5 | 0.494 5 | 0.336 0 | ||||
| 2(新能源消纳率) | 0.042 0 | 0.511 1 | 0.488 9 | 0.332 2 | ||||
| 3(系统发电成本) | 0.042 0 | 0.511 7 | 0.488 3 | 0.331 8 |
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