Prediction of Power System Cost and Price Level Under the Goal of “Carbon Peak and Carbon Neutralization”

doi:10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202208069

Abstract

Abstract: In the process of achieving the goal of carbon peak and carbon neutralization in the power system, the power supply structure and grid form will change significantly, and the system cost will also change accordingly. On the basis of comprehensive consideration of the changes in power supply structure, power generation cost, fuel cost, grid investment and other factors, this paper adopts the business period method and the “cost + income” model to forecast the cost and price level of power system in the mid to long-term. The research results show that the cost of each link of the power system will increase in the future, among which the cost of the power supply side will increase rapidly before 2040 and tends to be relatively stable afterwards, while the cost of the power grid side will increase slightly. This study can provide a reference for further improving the electricity price mechanism and marketization system, as well as strengthening the power system cost facilitation and fair sharing.

Key words: power cost forecast, power grid cost forecast, end user cost calculation, carbon peak, carbon neutralization

SUN Qixing, ZHANG Chao, LI Chengren, YOU Peipei, GAO Xiao, ZHAO Qian, XU Zhao, LIU Sijia, LI Yanlin. Prediction of Power System Cost and Price Level Under the Goal of “Carbon Peak and Carbon Neutralization”[J]. Electric Power, 2023, 56(1): 9-16.

Add to citation manager EndNote|Ris|BibTeX

URL: https://www.electricpower.com.cn/EN/10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202208069

https://www.electricpower.com.cn/EN/Y2023/V56/I1/9

References

[1] 李明. 适应能源电力新形势的“供电+能效服务”模式创新发展研究[J]. 电力需求侧管理, 2022, 24(1): 2–6
LI Ming. Study on innovation and development of “power + energy efficiency service”mode adapting to new energy and power situation[J]. Power Demand Side Management, 2022, 24(1): 2–6
[2] 张楠. 我国新能源发电进入平价发展新阶段[J]. 新能源科技, 2022(9): 1–3
[3] 朱建国, 董建庭. 平价新能源项目前景分析[J]. 节能, 2020, 39(7): 137–139
ZHU Jianguo, DONG Jianting. Prospect analysis on new energy parity projects[J]. Energy Conservation, 2020, 39(7): 137–139
[4] 刘永奇, 陈龙翔, 韩小琪. 能源转型下我国新能源替代的关键问题分析[J]. 中国电机工程学报, 2022, 42(2): 515–524
LIU Yongqi, CHEN Longxiang, HAN Xiaoqi. The key problem analysis on the alternative new energy under the energy transition[J]. Proceedings of the CSEE, 2022, 42(2): 515–524
[5] 张运洲, 陈宁, 黄碧斌, 等. 基于系统成本的新能源等效上网电价计算方法及应用[J]. 中国电力, 2022, 55(2): 1–8
ZHANG Yunzhou, CHEN Ning, HUANG Bibin, et al. Methodology for calculating VRE equivalent feed-In tariff based on system cost and its application[J]. Electric Power, 2022, 55(2): 1–8
[6] 高启瑄, 吕世轩, 郑丽君, 等. 高渗透率条件下考虑功率协调性的可再生能源调频方式[J]. 电力建设, 2022, 43(11): 122–131
GAO Qixuan, LÜ Shixuan, ZHENG Lijun, et al. Frequency regulation mode of renewable energy considering power coordination under the condition of high penetration[J]. Electric Power Construction, 2022, 43(11): 122–131
[7] 曹炜, 钦焕乘, 陆建忠, 等. 新型电力系统下虚拟同步机的定位和应用前景展望[J/OL]. 电力系统自动化, 2022: 1–20. (2022-11-17).https://kns.cnki.net/kcms/detail/32.1180.TP.20221115.1043.004.html.
CAO Wei, QIN Huancheng, LU Jianzhong, et al. Orientation and application prospect of virtual synchronous generator in new power system[J/OL]. Automation of Electric Power Systems, 2022: 1–20. (2022-11-17).https://kns.cnki.net/kcms/detail/32.1180.TP.20221115.1043.004.html.
[8] 王睿, 刘瑞丰, 刘庆, 等. 英美发电容量市场及建设触发条件对我国的启示[J]. 价格理论与实践, 2020(6): 72–75, 133
WANG Rui, LIU Ruifeng, LIU Qing, et al. Construction experience, trigger conditions & reference significance of generation capacity market in UK and US[J]. Price:Theory & Practice, 2020(6): 72–75, 133
[9] 王利利, 王皓, 任洲洋, 等. 计及灵活资源调节潜力的高压配电网新能源接纳能力评估[J]. 中国电力, 2022, 55(10): 124–131
WANG Lili, WANG Hao, REN Zhouyang, et al. Evaluation of renewable energy accommodation capacity of high voltage distribution networks considering regulation potential of flexible resources[J]. Electric Power, 2022, 55(10): 124–131
[10] 舒印彪, 张丽英, 张运洲, 等. 我国电力碳达峰、碳中和路径研究[J]. 中国工程科学, 2021, 23(6): 1–14
SHU Yinbiao, ZHANG Liying, ZHANG Yunzhou, et al. Carbon peak and carbon neutrality path for China's power industry[J]. Strategic Study of CAE, 2021, 23(6): 1–14
[11] 李丰, 于超, 孔亮, 等. 南方电网西电东送输电价格定价机制[J]. 中国电力, 2016, 49(12): 162–167
LI Feng, YU Chao, KONG Liang, et al. Research on pricing mechanism of west-to-east power transmission price for China southern power grid[J]. Electric Power, 2016, 49(12): 162–167
[12] 陈正飞, 王嘉豪, 黄珊, 等. 电网企业有效资产分析及有关建议[J]. 中国电力企业管理, 2021(22): 51–54
CHEN Zhengfei, WANG Jiahao, HUANG Shan, et al. Analysis of effective assets of power grid and relevant suggestions[J]. China Power Enterprise Management, 2021(22): 51–54
[13] 叶泽, 何姣, 王亚莉. 我国煤电价格联动政策存在的问题及对策研究[J]. 中国物价, 2018(1): 71–75
[14] 郭妍杉. 油气行业碳捕集、利用与封存技术分析[J]. 测试技术学报, 2022, 36(1): 86–92
GUO Yanshan. Analysis of carbon capture, utilization and storage in oil and gas industry[J]. Journal of Test and Measurement Technology, 2022, 36(1): 86–92
[15] 秦子豪, 雷鸣, 尹思阳, 等. 风电工程项目全过程造价管理的问题与对策[J]. 技术与市场, 2021, 28(8): 160–161
[16] 昌敦虎, 田川, 张泽阳, 等. 基于LCOE模型的光伏发电经济效益分析: 以宜昌农村地区光伏扶贫电站项目为例[J]. 环境科学研究, 2020, 33(10): 2412–2420
CHANG Dunhu, TIAN Chuan, ZHANG Zeyang, et al. Economic benefit analysis on photovoltaic power generation with LCOE model: the case of poverty alleviation project in rural areas of Yichang city[J]. Research of Environmental Sciences, 2020, 33(10): 2412–2420
[17] 陈敏, 黄维华. 水利水电工程EPC模式造价集成管理研究[J]. 水利经济, 2021, 39(2): 63–67, 97
CHEN Min, HUANG Weihua. Integrated management of EPC mode cost of water conservancy and hydropower projects[J]. Journal of Economics of Water Resources, 2021, 39(2): 63–67, 97
[18] 李杨. 核电建设项目全过程造价控制与分析[J]. 建筑与预算, 2021(12): 41–43
[19] 文劲宇, 周博, 魏利屾. 中国未来电力系统储电网初探[J]. 电力系统保护与控制, 2022, 50(7): 1–10
WEN Jinyu, ZHOU Bo, WEI Lishen. Preliminary study on an energy storage grid for future power system in China[J]. Power System Protection and Control, 2022, 50(7): 1–10
[20] 徐若晨, 张江涛, 刘明义, 等. 电化学储能及抽水蓄能全生命周期度电成本分析[J]. 电工电能新技术, 2021, 40(12): 10–18
XU Ruochen, ZHANG Jiangtao, LIU Mingyi, et al. Analysis of life cycle cost of electrochemical energy storage and pumped storage[J]. Advanced Technology of Electrical Engineering and Energy, 2021, 40(12): 10–18
[21] 谭显东, 刘俊, 徐志成, 等. “双碳”目标下“十四五”电力供需形势[J]. 中国电力, 2021, 54(5): 1–6
TAN Xiandong, LIU Jun, XU Zhicheng, et al. Power supply and demand balance during the 14 th five-year plan period under the goal of carbon emission peak and carbon neutrality[J]. Electric Power, 2021, 54(5): 1–6