Power Supply and Demand Balance during the 14th Five-Year Plan Period under the Goal of Carbon Emission Peak and Carbon Neutrality

doi:10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202103047

Abstract

Abstract: Under the carbon emission peak and carbon neutralization (bi-carbon) goal, the clean and low-carbon transition will be accelerated for the power system, which will have a profound impact on China’s power supply and demand situation during the 14th Five-Year Plan period. Based on an analysis of the major impact factors on the power supply and demand situation in China during the 14th Five-Year Plan period in the context of bi-carbon goal, a power demand forecasting model is built using the sector analysis method, and the power supply and demand balance is analyzed with the power system production simulation. It is concluded that during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, China's power demand will keep a fairly fast growth; the “double-peak” power demand in summer and winter seasons will bring pressures on power supply; and there is a certain amount of power shortage in winter in the regions with relatively high proportion of hydropower installed capacities. It is suggested that actions should be taken to ensure the balance of power supply and demand, such as strengthening the integrated planning of source-grid-load-storage, speeding up the improvement of demand response policies and mechanisms and building a reasonable number of gas-fired power plants and electrochemical energy storage stations according to the needs.

Key words: 14th Five-Year Plan, bi-carbon (carbon emission peak and carbon neutralization) goal, power supply and demand situation, power demand forecasting, power system production simulation

TAN Xiandong, LIU Jun, XU Zhicheng, YAO Li, JI Guoqiang, SHAN Baoguo. Power Supply and Demand Balance during the 14th Five-Year Plan Period under the Goal of Carbon Emission Peak and Carbon Neutrality[J]. Electric Power, 2021, 54(5): 1-6.

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URL: https://www.electricpower.com.cn/EN/10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202103047

https://www.electricpower.com.cn/EN/Y2021/V54/I5/1

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