Medium and Long-Term Hydrogen Load Forecast for Unified Energy System

doi:10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202007205

Abstract

Abstract: In the future energy society, hydrogen will play a huge role in power system, industrial application, heating supply, transportation and other fields. Hydrogen energy will be used as the key element of the unified energy system to achieve the energy conversion between various energy sources. In this paper, a method of hydrogen load forecast is proposed for the future demand of hydrogen energy. Firstly, on the basis of the hydrogen load sample data from the industrial field, the characteristics of the load data are calculated and the support vector machine regression (SVR) algorithm is applied to set up the hydrogen load forecast model accordingly. Secondly, a model based on the hydrogen demand data in the heating supply and transportation fields are built as well, and the improved gray GM (1,1) model is utilized in combination with the metabolic model to obtain a hydrogen load forecast model in the heating supply and transportation fields. Finally, all above three hydrogen load forecast are superimposed together to complete the construction of the mathematical model. From the results, not only the SVRT prediction method is proved to be very accurate, but also the combined model group based on the improved gray GM (1,1) model and metabolism have demonstrated high forecast precision. This method is feasible for medium and long-term hydrogen load prediction.

Key words: unified energy system, hydrogen load, support vector machine, gray model, prediction

PENG Shengjiang, SUN Chuanshuai, TUO Jianjun, YUAN Tiejiang. Medium and Long-Term Hydrogen Load Forecast for Unified Energy System[J]. Electric Power, 2022, 55(1): 84-90.

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URL: https://www.electricpower.com.cn/EN/10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202007205

https://www.electricpower.com.cn/EN/Y2022/V55/I1/84

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