采用置信度风险测度的鲁棒发电计划模型及算法

doi:10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.201902078

中国电力 ›› 2020, Vol. 53 ›› Issue (12): 190-197.DOI: 10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.201902078

采用置信度风险测度的鲁棒发电计划模型及算法

李鹏飞¹, 侯验秋¹, 邹佳芯², 张舒捷², 李湃³, 林济铿¹

1. 同济大学电子与信息学院电气工程系，上海 201804;
2. 国网青海省电力公司经济技术研究院青海省光伏发电并网技术重点实验室，青海西宁 810008;
3. 中国电力科学研究院有限公司，北京 100192

收稿日期:2019-02-21 修回日期:2019-04-10 发布日期:2020-12-16
作者简介:李鹏飞(1994—)，男，硕士研究生，从事机组组合、经济调度等研究，E-mail：lipengfei@tongji.edu.cn;林济铿(1967—)，男，博士，教授，博士生导师，从事电力系统稳定性分析及控制、配网自动化、智能电网等研究，E-mail：mejklin@126.com
基金资助:
国家电网有限公司科技项目(5228001600DX)。

Model and Algorithm of the Robust Generation Schedule Based on Confidence Risk Measurement

LI Pengfei¹, HOU Yanqiu¹, ZOU Jiaxin², ZHANG Shujie², LI Pai³, LIN Jikeng¹

1. Department of Electrical Engineering, College of Electronic and Information Engineering, Tongji University, Shanghai 201804, China;
2. Economic and Technical Research Institute of State Grid Qinghai Electric Power Corporation，Qinghai Key Laboratory of Grid-connected Photovoltaic Power Generation Technology, Xining 810008, China;
3. China Electric Power Research Institute, Beijing 100192, China

Received:2019-02-21 Revised:2019-04-10 Published:2020-12-16
Supported by:
This work is supported by the Science and Technology Project of SGCC (No.5228001600DX).

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 针对大规模风电并网所带来的电网运行调度的不确定性及运行风险，提出基于置信度风险测度的鲁棒发电计划模型及求解算法。首先，提出一种新的风险测度—置信度风险测度（Risk_α），对于既定置信度α及相应的风电功率预测区间，以弃风风险值与切负荷风险值的和构成置信度综合风险测度，以量化风电实际功率超出风电可接纳域的风险。在此基础上，以发电成本和置信度风险之和最小为优化目标，构建计及置信度风险测度的鲁棒发电计划模型及分解求解算法，同时优化机组组合决策和风电可接纳域，使得所制定的发电计划方案实现经济性和运行风险之间的均衡。最后，通过算例证明算法的正确性及有效性。

关键词: 鲁棒发电计划, 风电, 置信度风险测度, 条件误差法, 风电可接纳域

Abstract: Aiming at the uncertainty and operational risk of grid operation scheduling brought about by large-scale wind power integration, a new confidence-risk-measurement-based model and its solution algorithm is proposed for robust generation schedule. The paper firstly proposes a new risk measurement, namely confidence risk measurement (Risk_α). For a given confidence level α and the corresponding wind power forecasting interval, the sum of the risk of wind curtailment and the risk of load shedding constitutes the confidence comprehensive risk measurement, which can be used for quantifying the risk caused by actual wind power surpassing the acceptable wind power threshold. And then, taking the sum of generation cost and confidence risk minimum as optimization objective, a new robust generation schedule model and its decomposition algorithm are proposed to simultaneously optimize the generator unit portfolio decision-making and the wind power acceptable threshold, thus making the formulated generation schedule achieve a balance between economy and operational risk. A case study has proved the correctness and effectiveness of the proposed model and algorithm.

Key words: robust generation schedule, wind power, confidence risk measurement, conditional error, wind power acceptable threshold

李鹏飞, 侯验秋, 邹佳芯, 张舒捷, 李湃, 林济铿. 采用置信度风险测度的鲁棒发电计划模型及算法[J]. 中国电力, 2020, 53(12): 190-197.

LI Pengfei, HOU Yanqiu, ZOU Jiaxin, ZHANG Shujie, LI Pai, LIN Jikeng. Model and Algorithm of the Robust Generation Schedule Based on Confidence Risk Measurement[J]. Electric Power, 2020, 53(12): 190-197.

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https://www.electricpower.com.cn/CN/Y2020/V53/I12/190

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采用置信度风险测度的鲁棒发电计划模型及算法

Model and Algorithm of the Robust Generation Schedule Based on Confidence Risk Measurement

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采用置信度风险测度的鲁棒发电计划模型及算法

Model and Algorithm of the Robust Generation Schedule Based on Confidence Risk Measurement

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