关键词: 2015年, 经济发展, 电力需求, 电力供应, 预测

Abstract: The features of China’s electricity demand and supply in 2014 are analyzed and the power supply and demand situation in the year of 2015 are forecasted in the paper, based on which some suggestions are proposed to guarantee the electric power supply. The analyis shows that the power consumption growth and the using hours of thermal power generation units in 2014 were the lowest in 16 years and 37 years respectively in China, which was mainly affected by the economic slowdown in growth and the uncommon weather of cool summer and warm winter. It is predicted that China’s national electricity demand will reach 5 769~5 879 TW?h in 2015, growing by 4.0%~6.0%, the net installed generation capacity will increase by 91.4 million kilowatts with the total installed generation capacity reaching 1.45 billion kilowatts by the end of 2015 and the using hours of the thermal power generation units will drop futher to about 4 638 hours; and the electric power demand and supply will be in balance in China as a whole, sub-regionally, the North China is deficient slightly in power supply, the East China, Central China and the South China are basically in balance between power demand and supply, while the Northeast and Northwest have some surplus in power supply.

Key words: the year 2015, economic development, electricity demand, electricity supply, prediction