考虑碳排放影响的长期发电投资决策方法

doi:10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202401044

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

针对新型电力系统的低碳转型发展需求，建立了一种长期发电投资决策分析模型。首先，该模型考虑了处于价格主导地位的传统发电的战略型决策，以及新加入市场的可再生能源发电等价格接受者的完全竞争型决策，以满足长期碳减排约束。其次，采用了基于纳什-古诺博弈的集中二次规划方法来分析日前电力市场价格。然后，在所提模型中，同时做出投资决策（每年一次）和生产决策（年内的每个时间段），并对此建立开环古诺博弈模型。最后，在模拟电力市场中对所提方法进行性能评估，进行了为期20年的博弈测试，并分析了一系列场景下的价格和投资决策，以及市场参与者数量、排放限制或排放政策影响。结果表明，应用所提方法可以实现系统深度去碳化，验证了方法的有效性。

关键词: 碳减排, 电力市场, 古诺博弈, 低碳经济

Abstract:

To meet the demand for low-carbon transition of new power systems, this paper develops a long-term decision-making analysis model for power generation investment. First, the model considers the strategic decision-making of conventional price-leading generation, as well as the perfectly competitive decision-making of newly market-entering renewable generation as price-takers, to satisfy the long-term carbon emission reduction constraints. Second, a centralized quadratic programming approach based on the Nash-Gounod game is used to analyze the day-ahead electricity market prices. Then, in the proposed model, investment decisions (once a year) and production decisions (in each time period within a year) are made simultaneously, and an open-loop Gounod game model is built accordingly. Finally, the performance of the proposed method is evaluated in a simulated electricity market, where the game is tested over a period of up to 20 years, and the price and investment decisions under a series of scenarios, as well as the impacts of the number of market participants, emission limits, or emission policies, are analyzed. The results show that the application of the proposed method can achieve deep system decarbonization, which verifies its effectiveness.

Key words: carbon reduction, electricity market, Cournot game, low-carbon economy

翁格平, 崔林宁, 江涵, 任娇蓉, 韩寅峰, 陈晗文. 考虑碳排放影响的长期发电投资决策方法[J]. 中国电力, 2026, 59(4): 94-104.

WENG Geping, CUI Linning, JIANG Han, REN Jiaorong, HAN Yinfeng, CHEN Hanwen. A long-term power generation investment decision-making method considering carbon emission impacts[J]. Electric Power, 2026, 59(4): 94-104.

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链接本文: https://www.electricpower.com.cn/CN/10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202401044

https://www.electricpower.com.cn/CN/Y2026/V59/I4/94

图/表 14

图 1 方法结构

Fig.1 Method structure

图 2 不同参与者的现有装机容量和份额

Fig.2 Existing installed capacity and share of different participants

表 1 投资经济参数

Table 1 Investment economic parameters

参数	煤炭	燃气	光伏	风能
$ {C}_{g,2020} $/(元·MW^–1)	340	480	0	0
${C_{{\text{IC}},{g,2020}}}$/(元·MW^–1)	28×10⁶	11×10⁶	8×10⁶	1.2×10⁶
${C_{{\text{FC}},{g,2020}}}$/(元·年^–1·MW^–1)	376200	182400	138600	150000
机组寿命${l_g}$/年	30	30	25	30
${\bar C _g}^{{\text{inv}}}$/(年·MW^–1)	5000	5000	5000	5000
${\bar C _g}^{{\text{inv-tot}}}$/MW	10000	10000	10000	10000

表 2 场景设置

Table 2 Scenario Settings

公司	基准场景		场景1		场景2		场景3		场景4
公司	投资项	角色	投资项	角色	投资项	角色	投资项	角色	投资项	角色
2		战略	煤,气	战略	煤,气	战略	煤,气,风,光	战略	煤,气,风,光	战略
3		战略	煤,气	战略	煤,气	战略	煤,气,风,光	战略	煤,气,风,光	战略
4		战略	煤,气	战略	煤,气	战略	煤,气	战略	煤,气	战略
8			风,光	完全竞争	风,光	战略	风,光	战略	风,光	完全竞争

图 3 不同执行场景中的年平均电价

Fig.3 Annual average electricity prices in different execution scenarios

图 4 不同执行场景中的供应份额

Fig.4 Supply share in different execution scenarios

图 5 不同执行场景中的投资水平

Fig.5 Investment levels in different execution scenarios

图 6 不同碳排放削减水平下排放水平

Fig.6 Emission levels under different carbon emission reduction levels

图 7 碳排放削减案例中年平均电价

Fig.7 Annual average electricity prices in carbon emission reduction cases

图 8 碳排放削减案例中累计投资水平

Fig.8 Cumulative investment level in carbon emission reduction cases

图 9 碳排放削减案例中碳排放价格

Fig.9 Carbon emission prices in carbon emission reduction cases

图 10 不同排放标准下年排放量

Fig.10 Annual emissions under different emission standards

图 11 排放标准对总投资和平均价格的影响

Fig.11 The impact of emission standards on total investment and average prices

图 12 参与者数量对总投资和平均价格的影响

Fig.12 The impact of the number of participants on total investment and average price

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