国外高比例新能源消纳分析及对中国新能源可持续发展的建议

doi:10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202411062

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

在全球能源转型的推动下，风电和光伏等新能源在许多国家的电力系统中占比持续攀升。然而，随着新能源装机规模的扩大，如何有效提升新能源的消纳水平和利用率成为各国亟待解决的问题。为此，首先选取了美国加州与德国两个地区，分析梳理新能源市场化消纳的一般规律；其次回溯了中国新能源消纳历程，分析“十四五”期间新能源消纳面临的新形势；然后对市场化消纳形势下利用率对新能源盈利能力的影响进行量化分析；最后，结合中国新能源发展的实际情况，提出了提高消纳水平的策略建议，以助力中国在未来实现更高效的新能源开发与利用，促进能源绿色低碳化转型。

关键词: 新能源, 电力市场, 消纳, 利用率

Abstract:

Driven by the global energy transformation, the proportion of new energy such as wind power and photovoltaics in the power systems continues to rise in many countries. However, with the increase of new energy installed capacities, how to effectively improve the absorption level and utilization rate of new energy has become an urgent problem needing to be solved by all countries. To meet this challenge, this paper firstly selected two regions, California in US and Germany, to analyze and sort out the general rules of market-oriented absorption of new energy. Then, the history of new energy absorption in China was traced and the new situation of new energy absorption during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period was analyzed. Thirdly, the impact of utilization rate on the profitability of new energy under the market-oriented absorption situation was quantitatively analyzed. Finally, combined with the actual situation of new energy development in China, the strategic suggestions for improving the absorption level of new energy was proposed, so as to help China to achieve more efficient development and utilization of new energy in the future and promote the green and low-carbon transformation of energy.

Key words: new energy, electricity market, consumption, utilization rate

叶小宁, 王彩霞, 时智勇, 步雨洛, 杨超, 吴思. 国外高比例新能源消纳分析及对中国新能源可持续发展的建议[J]. 中国电力, 2025, 58(6): 137-144.

YE Xiaoning, WANG Caixia, SHI Zhiyong, BU Yuluo, YANG Chao, WU Si. Analysis of High Proportion of New Energy Consumption Abroad and Suggestions for Sustainable Development of New Energy in China[J]. Electric Power, 2025, 58(6): 137-144.

导出引用管理器 EndNote|Ris|BibTeX

链接本文: https://www.electricpower.com.cn/CN/10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202411062

https://www.electricpower.com.cn/CN/Y2025/V58/I6/137

图/表 7

图 1 2016—2023年CAISO运营区域新能源弃电量和弃电率分析

Fig.1 Analysis of the amount of renewable energy curtailment and curtailment rate in the CAISO operating area from 2016 to 2023

图 2 2016—2023年CAISO运营区域新能源调峰弃电和阻塞弃电分析

Fig.2 Analysis of renewable energy peak load and congestion curtailment in the CAISO operating area from 2016 to 2023

图 3 2022年1月—2024年5月CAISO运营区域新能源逐月弃电量分析

Fig.3 Analysis of monthly curtailment of renewable energy in the CAISO operating area from January 2022 to May 2024

图 4 2024年1月1日—5月31日CAISO运营区域新能源日内累计调峰弃电和阻塞弃电分析

Fig.4 Analysis of the cumulative peak load and congestion curtailment of renewable energy in the CAISO operating area from January 1 to May 31, 2024

图 5 2014—2022年德国新能源弃电量和弃电率分析

Fig.5 Analysis of Germany's renewable energy curtailment and curtailment rate from 2014 to 2022

图 6 甘肃陆上风电利用率水平与投资收益率之间的关系

Fig.6 Relationship between onshore wind power utilization rate and investment return rate in Gansu

图 7 甘肃增量光伏发电利用率水平与投资收益率之间的关系

Fig.7 Relationship between the utilization rate and investment return rate of incremental photovoltaic power generation in Gansu

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