基于系统动力学的发电行业市场型碳减排政策影响分析

doi:10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.201905026

中国电力 ›› 2020, Vol. 53 ›› Issue (6): 114-123.DOI: 10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.201905026

基于系统动力学的发电行业市场型碳减排政策影响分析

张金良, 周秀秀

华北电力大学经济与管理学院，北京 102206

收稿日期:2019-05-06 修回日期:2019-12-19 发布日期:2020-06-05
作者简介:张金良(1981-),男,博士,教授,从事电力体制改革、能源经济与气候变化研究,E-mail:zhangjinliang1213@163.com;周秀秀(1996-),女,通信作者,硕士研究生,从事电力供需、能源政策研究,E-mail:851826322@qq.com
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金资助项目(发电企业碳减排的市场型政策工具组合优化研究，71774054)；中央高校基本科研业务专项资金资助项目(不同政策对发电行业碳减排的影响及优化研究，2019MS055)

Impact Analysis of Market-Driented Carbon Emission Reduction Policies in Power Generation Industry Based on System Dynamics

ZHANG Jinliang, ZHOU Xiuxiu

School of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China

Received:2019-05-06 Revised:2019-12-19 Published:2020-06-05
Supported by:
This work is supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (Research on Optimization of Market-oriented Policy Tool Combination for Carbon Emission Reduction of Power Generation Enterprises, No.71774054) and Special Funds for Basic Scientific Research Business in Central Colleges and Universities (Research on the Influence and Optimization of Different Policies on Carbon Emission Reduction in Power Generation Industry, No.2019MS055)

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 在碳减排和电力市场改革的背景下，发电行业市场型碳减排政策对电力市场改革进程及碳减排效果具有显著的影响。为此以发电行业的市场型碳减排政策为研究对象，构建了基于绿色证书交易市场、碳排放权交易市场、发电权交易市场及电力市场间的系统动力学模型，分析不同政策情景下，其对碳减排及电力市场的影响。结果表明：绿色证书交易市场对可再生能源发展具有明显的促进作用；碳排放权交易市场对火电发展存在抑制作用，且提高了上网电价；而发电权交易市场则能够缓解电价和碳价上涨，但会冲击绿色证书市场，导致绿色证书价格下跌。

关键词: 发电行业, 碳减排政策, 系统动力学, 碳排放

Abstract: Under the background of carbon emission reduction and electricity market reform, the market-based carbon emission reduction policy in power generation industry has a significant impact on the process of electricity market reform and the effect of carbon emission reduction. For this reason, by taking the market-based carbon emission reduction policy in power generation industry as a research object, this paper constructs a system dynamics model based on green certificate trading market, carbon emission trading market, generation right trading market and power market, and analyzes the impact of different policy scenarios on carbon emission reduction and power market. The results indicate that the green certificate trading market has a significant role in promoting the development of renewable energy; the carbon emission trading market has a restraining effect on the development of thermal power, and increases the feed-in tariffs; the generation right trading market can alleviate the rise of electricity price and carbon price, but it will impact the green certificate market, resulting in the decline of green certificate price.

Key words: power generation industry, carbon emission reduction policy, system dynamics, carbon emission

张金良, 周秀秀. 基于系统动力学的发电行业市场型碳减排政策影响分析[J]. 中国电力, 2020, 53(6): 114-123.

ZHANG Jinliang, ZHOU Xiuxiu. Impact Analysis of Market-Driented Carbon Emission Reduction Policies in Power Generation Industry Based on System Dynamics[J]. Electric Power, 2020, 53(6): 114-123.

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基于系统动力学的发电行业市场型碳减排政策影响分析

Impact Analysis of Market-Driented Carbon Emission Reduction Policies in Power Generation Industry Based on System Dynamics

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基于系统动力学的发电行业市场型碳减排政策影响分析

Impact Analysis of Market-Driented Carbon Emission Reduction Policies in Power Generation Industry Based on System Dynamics

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