新型电力系统构建场景下电网功能化投资结构演进趋势研究

doi:10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202408042

中国电力 ›› 2025, Vol. 58 ›› Issue (7): 207-216.DOI: 10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202408042

新型电力系统构建场景下电网功能化投资结构演进趋势研究

娄奇鹤¹^,²(), 李彦斌²(), 刘子上¹(), 向月³, 靳霄⁴

1. 国网北京市电力公司，北京　100031
2. 华北电力大学经济与管理学院，北京　102206
3. 四川大学电气工程学院，四川成都　610065
4. 北京金电联供用电咨询有限公司，北京　102308

收稿日期:2024-08-12 发布日期:2025-07-30 出版日期:2025-07-28
作者简介:
娄奇鹤（1977），男，硕士，高级工程师（教授级），从事新能源发展战略、电网规划、经济管理理论和方法研究，E-mail：louqihe@ncepu.com.cn
李彦斌（1967），男，通信作者，博士，从事电力企业安全管理，E-mail：liyb@ncepu.com.cn
刘子上（1990），男，博士，从事电网规划与电网投资研究，E-mail：2207403308@qq.com
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金面上项目（端对端分散交易驱动的新型配电系统自利规划研究，52177103）；国家电网有限公司科技项目（构建新型电力系统下电网投资决策关键技术研究及应用，1400-202257234A-1-1-ZN）。

Evolutionary Trend of Grid Functionalized Investment Structure under Composite Scenarios of New Power Systems

LOU Qihe¹^,²(), LI Yanbin²(), LIU Zishang¹(), XIANG Yue³, JIN Xiao⁴

1. State Grid Beijing Electric Power Company, Beijing 100031, China
2. School of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China
3. College of Electrical Engineering, Sichuan University, Chengdu 610065, China
4. Beijing Jindianlian Power Supply and Consumption Consulting Co., Ltd., Beijing 102308, China

Received:2024-08-12 Online:2025-07-30 Published:2025-07-28
Supported by:
This work is supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (General Program) (Self-interested Planning of New-Type Distribution Systems Driven by Peer-to-Peer Decentralized Trading, No.52177103), Science and Technology Project of SGCC (Research and Application of Key Technologies for Power Grid Investment Decision-Making under the Construction of New Power System, No.1400-202257234A-1-1-ZN).

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

构建新型电力系统推动了电网形态、技术、功能的加速演进，使电网投资功能更加丰富，需要进一步了解电网投资的功能化需求，优化投资结构，进一步支撑能源电力结构转型。运用系统动力学模型，研究新型电力系统构建过程中，源网荷电力系统各形态的变化趋势，明确电网基建投资随着新型电力系统构建的演进趋势，研究投资建设规模的量化评估方法，形成既满足传统经济社会发展需要，又满足新能源高速发展需要的电网投资需求体系。

关键词: 电网投资, 结构演变, 系统动力学, 投资需求体系

Abstract:

The construction of new power systems has accelerated the evolution of the form, technology, and functions of the power grid, thus enriching the functions of power grid investment. It is therefore necessary to further understand the functional needs of power grid investment, optimize the investment structure, and further support the transformation of the energy and power structure. This paper uses the system dynamics model to study the changing trends of various forms of the source-grid-load power system during the construction of the new power systems, clarifies the evolution trend of power grid infrastructure investment during the construction of the new power systems, and studies the quantitative evaluation method for investment scale to form a power grid investment demand system that can meet both the needs of traditional economic and social development and the needs of new energy rapid development.

Key words: power grid investment, structural evolution, system dynamics, investment demand system

娄奇鹤, 李彦斌, 刘子上, 向月, 靳霄. 新型电力系统构建场景下电网功能化投资结构演进趋势研究[J]. 中国电力, 2025, 58(7): 207-216.

LOU Qihe, LI Yanbin, LIU Zishang, XIANG Yue, JIN Xiao. Evolutionary Trend of Grid Functionalized Investment Structure under Composite Scenarios of New Power Systems[J]. Electric Power, 2025, 58(7): 207-216.

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链接本文: https://www.electricpower.com.cn/CN/10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202408042

https://www.electricpower.com.cn/CN/Y2025/V58/I7/207

图/表 9

图 1 电网基建的功能化投资需求体系

Fig.1 Functionalized investment demand system of power grid

表 1 情景设定

Table 1 Scenario setting

情景	终端电能消费比重	需求响应比例	新型储能装机	新能源装机占比
BEA	中	中	中	中
LP	低	高	高	低
HP	高	低	低	高

图 2 电网基建投资存量流量

Fig.2 Grid infrastructure investment stock flows

图 3 电源接入投资及其占比变化趋势

Fig.3 Trend of grid access investment and its share

图 4 电网输送电投资及其占比变化趋势

Fig.4 Trend of power transmission investment and its share

图 5 电网调节能力投资及其占比变化趋势

Fig.5 Trend of power grid regulation investment and its share

图 6 电网负荷增长投资及其占比变化趋势

Fig.6 Trend of grid load growth investment and its share

图 7 以数字化赋能电网基建投资及其占比变化趋势

Fig.7 Trend of grid digitization investment and its share

图 8 保障安全性的投资及其占比

Fig.8 Grid security investment and its share

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新型电力系统构建场景下电网功能化投资结构演进趋势研究

Evolutionary Trend of Grid Functionalized Investment Structure under Composite Scenarios of New Power Systems

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新型电力系统构建场景下电网功能化投资结构演进趋势研究

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