关键词: 电网, “十三五”, 中长期, 电力需求, 规划

Abstract: It is of great significance to properly determine the forecasts about the national and local power demand trends in the 13th Five-Year Plan as well as the med-term and long-term periods. In this paper, three scenarios of economic and electricity demand growth are constructed to forecast the national and local power demands by 2020 and 2030 based on the established economy and electricity demand forecasting model. The results show that during these periods, China’s electricity demand will still have strong growth potentials, but the growth rate will decrease greatly after 2020. The North China, Central China and East China will always take the major role in electricity demand. By 2020, the total demand for electricity will be about 7 649 to 8 447 TWh with the peak load of 1 271 to 1 410 GW and the proportion of the electricity demand in North China, Central China and East China accounting for 63.7%~65.8%; by 2030, the total demand will be about 1 003 to 1 175 TWh with the peak load of 1 708 to 2 002 GW and the proportion of the electricity demand in North China, Central China and East China accounting for 61.5%~63.2%.

Key words: power grid, 13th Five-Year Plan, medium- and long-term, electricity demand, planning Med-Term- &, Long-Term Periods