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基于关键特征对比分析的异常电价成因溯源方法

Traceability Method for the Causes of Abnormal Electricity Prices Based on Comparative Analysis of Key Features

  • 摘要: 电价信号是电力商品属性的直接体现,受市场供需、发电商报价、线路容量等多种因素影响,其呈现出种类多样的异常形式。对异常电价信号的辨识及溯源是各级电力交易中心的重要日常工作。然而,当前普遍依赖于人工经验对异常电价成因进行分析,不仅效率低下,而且难以保证客观、科学溯源异常电价成因。为解决上述问题,提出了一种基于关键特征对比分析的异常电价成因溯源方法。首先,基于历史电价数据特征,完成电价尖峰幅值异常和电价均值异常的分类;然后,通过主成分分析法建立各类型异常电价信号关键特征集合;最后,基于替代算法逐一计算关键特征集合内部各元素对电价的影响程度,并通过影响程度重要性排序实现异常电价成因筛选与溯源。所提方法的有效性在大量基于电力市场实际数据构建的算例中得到了验证,所提方法针对电价均值异常和尖峰异常的成因溯源的平均正确率达到85%以上,可有效降低异常电价成因溯源过程的人力成本。

     

    Abstract: The electricity price directly reflects the attributes of electricity commodities. However, influenced by various factors such as market supply and demand, power generation company bids, and line transmission capacity, the electricity price signals often exhibit diverse forms of anomalies. Recognizing and tracing these abnormal electricity price signals are crucial daily tasks for power trading centers at all levels. However, the existing tracing methods generally rely on manual experiences to analyze the causes of abnormal electricity prices, which is inefficient and difficult to ensure objective and scientific traceability of the causes of abnormal electricity prices. This paper proposes an abnormal electricity price cause tracing method based on comparative analysis of key features. Firstly, based on the historical electricity price data features, the abnormal spike amplitude and abnormal average value of electricity prices are categorized. And then, using the principal component analysis method, the collections of key features for each type of abnormal electricity price signals are established. Finally, using the alternative algorithms, the influencing degree of each element within the collection of key features on the electricity price are calculated respectively, and ranked based on their importance, thereby achieving filtering and tracing of the causes for abnormal electricity prices. The effectiveness of the proposed methodin is verified through case studies based on numerous actual power market data. The average accuracy rate of the proposed method for tracing the causes of average electricity price anomalies and spike anomalies reaches more than 85%, which can effectively reduce the labor costs in the process of tracing the causes of abnormal electricity prices.

     

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