电网发展诊断的改进模糊评价模型与评级

doi:10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202004115

中国电力 ›› 2022, Vol. 55 ›› Issue (5): 66-75,165.DOI: 10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202004115

电网发展诊断的改进模糊评价模型与评级

艾欣¹, 胡寰宇¹, 任大鹏¹, 彭冬², 刘汇川³, 薛雅玮², 张天琪²

1. 华北电力大学电气与电子工程学院，北京 102206;
2. 国网经济技术研究院有限公司，北京 102209;
3. 国网江苏省电力有限公司经济技术研究院，江苏南京 210008

收稿日期:2020-04-15 修回日期:2021-06-08 出版日期:2022-05-28 发布日期:2022-05-18
作者简介:艾欣(1964—)，男，教授，博士生导师，从事新能源电力系统及微网研究，E-mail：aixin@ncepu.edu.cn;胡寰宇(1995—)，男，通信作者，博士研究生，从事电力系统分析与控制研究，E-mail：huanyuncepu@163.com;任大鹏(1987—)，男，博士研究生，从事电力系统分析与控制研究，E-mail：rocperson@126.com
基金资助:
国家电网有限公司科技项目（基于数据驱动的电网发展智能诊断分析与综合决策技术研究，5102-201956310A-0-0-00）。

Improved Fuzzy Evaluation Model and Assessment of Power Grid Development Diagnosis

AI Xin¹, HU Huanyu¹, REN Dapeng¹, PENG Dong², LIU Huichuan³, XUE Yawei², ZHANG Tianqi²

1. School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China;
2. State Grid Economic and Technological Research Institute Co., Ltd., Beijing 102209, China;
3. Economic and Technology Research Institute of State Grid Jiangsu Electric Power Co., Ltd., Nanjing 210008, China

Received:2020-04-15 Revised:2021-06-08 Online:2022-05-28 Published:2022-05-18
Supported by:
This work is supported by Science and Technology Project of SGCC（Research on Intelligent Diagnosis Analysis and Comprehensive Decision Technology of Power Grid Development Based on Data Drive, No.5102-201956310A-0-0-00）.

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 随着“电网新基建”方针的确立及加速推进，现代电网已日趋复杂化，影响电网规划及发展的指标及内外部因素众多，准确评估和评级电网的发展状态将有助于把握其发展规律。因此，结合现有的指标，综合内外部影响因素，提出了电网发展诊断的改进模糊评价模型并开展电网评级研究。首先分析并归纳电网发展各方面的重要指标参数，然后构建动态评价指标体系，并应用隶属度函数法及聚类分析法挖掘其关于各状态的趋势特征，最后应用隐马尔可夫模型进行综合评级。应用电网实际数据进行了算例分析，表明评级结果符合实际，有助于把握电网发展的动态规律。

关键词: 电网新基建, 电网发展诊断, 动态评级, 模糊综合评价, 隐马尔可夫模型, 主成分分析

Abstract: With the establishment and acceleration of power grid new infrastructure construction, the power grid is becoming increasingly complicated. It is very important to correctly understand the development state of power grid. Therefore, an improved dynamic fuzzy evaluation model is proposed for power grid development diagnosis, and corresponding rating assessment on power grid development is carried out. Firstly, a dynamic evaluation index system is established based on an analysis of the important indexes in all aspects of power grid development. Then, the trend characteristics of each state are analyzed by the methods of membership function and cluster analysis. Finally, the hidden Markov model is used for the comprehensive rating of power grid development. A case study is carried out with actual data of a provincial power grid, which shows that the rating results conform with the actual status, and are helpful to understand the dynamic features of power grid development.

Key words: power grid new infrastructure construction, power grid development diagnosis, dynamic assessment, fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, hidden Markov model, principal component analysis

艾欣, 胡寰宇, 任大鹏, 彭冬, 刘汇川, 薛雅玮, 张天琪. 电网发展诊断的改进模糊评价模型与评级[J]. 中国电力, 2022, 55(5): 66-75,165.

AI Xin, HU Huanyu, REN Dapeng, PENG Dong, LIU Huichuan, XUE Yawei, ZHANG Tianqi. Improved Fuzzy Evaluation Model and Assessment of Power Grid Development Diagnosis[J]. Electric Power, 2022, 55(5): 66-75,165.

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https://www.electricpower.com.cn/CN/Y2022/V55/I5/66

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电网发展诊断的改进模糊评价模型与评级

Improved Fuzzy Evaluation Model and Assessment of Power Grid Development Diagnosis

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电网发展诊断的改进模糊评价模型与评级

Improved Fuzzy Evaluation Model and Assessment of Power Grid Development Diagnosis

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