中国电力系统低碳发展分析模型构建与转型路径比较

doi:10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202101058

中国电力 ›› 2021, Vol. 54 ›› Issue (3): 1-11.DOI: 10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202101058

中国电力系统低碳发展分析模型构建与转型路径比较

张运洲, 张宁, 代红才, 张丝钰, 吴潇雨, 薛美美

国网能源研究院有限公司，北京 102209

收稿日期:2021-01-12 修回日期:2021-02-01 出版日期:2021-03-05 发布日期:2021-03-17
作者简介:张运洲(1962-)，男，硕士，高级工程师(教授级)，从事能源电力及电网规划研究，E-mail：zhangyunzhou@sgeri.sgcc.com.cn;张宁(1989-)，男，博士，高级工程师，从事能源电力规划、能源互联网研究，E-mail：zhangning@sgeri.sgcc.com.cn;代红才(1977-)，男，硕士，高级工程师，从事企业战略、能源互联网研究，E-mail：daihongcai@sgeri.sgcc.com.cn
基金资助:
国家电网公司科技项目(智库研究平台全领域一体化仿真方法与实用技术研究)

Model Construction and Pathways of Low-Carbon Transition of China's Power System

ZHANG Yunzhou, ZHANG Ning, DAI Hongcai, ZHANG Siyu, WU Xiaoyu, XUE Meimei

State Grid Energy Research Institute Co., Ltd., Beijing 102209, China

Received:2021-01-12 Revised:2021-02-01 Online:2021-03-05 Published:2021-03-17
Supported by:
This work is supported by Science and Technology Project of SGCC (Research on the Simulation Method and Practical Technology of Think Tank Research Platform)

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 中国提出的碳达峰目标和碳中和愿景对能源电力碳减排提出了更高要求，电力系统的清洁低碳化转型路径亟待探索。首先，从能源电力领域的碳排放现状出发，明确了能源电力在碳减排中的定位。其次，针对电力近中期低碳发展形势，构建了考虑碳排放外部成本的规划模型，开展了量化展望分析；针对远期低碳发展情景，打破不同能源系统边界，创新性地提出了电-氢协同路径和电-氢-碳协同路径，并构建了适用于新能源多元化利用方式的全链条技术经济评价模型，对氢气、甲醇等终端产品的经济竞争力进行了评估。

关键词: 碳减排, 低碳转型, 新能源, 氢能, 循环碳经济, 碳中和, 碳达峰

Abstract: The goal of carbon peak by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060 proposed by Chinese government has brought higher requirements for carbon emission reduction in energy and electricity. The clean and low-carbon transition pathways for the power system need to be explored urgently. Firstly, based on an investigation of the current status of carbon emissions in the energy and power sector, the paper clarifies the role of energy and power in carbon emissions reduction in China. Secondly, according to the carbon development situation of electric power in the near and mid-term, a quantitative calculation model considering the external cost of carbon emissions is constructed. For the long-term low-carbon development scenarios, the synergistic pathways of electricity-hydrogen and electricity-hydrogen-carbon are innovatively proposed, breaking the boundaries of different energy systems. Furthermore, a whole-chain techno-economic evaluation model is built, which is suitable for the diversified utilization of new energy, and has been applied to evaluation of the economic competitiveness of the end products such as hydrogen and methanol.

Key words: carbon reduction, low-carbon transition, new energy, hydrogen energy, circular carbon economy, carbon neutralization, carbon peak

张运洲, 张宁, 代红才, 张丝钰, 吴潇雨, 薛美美. 中国电力系统低碳发展分析模型构建与转型路径比较[J]. 中国电力, 2021, 54(3): 1-11.

ZHANG Yunzhou, ZHANG Ning, DAI Hongcai, ZHANG Siyu, WU Xiaoyu, XUE Meimei. Model Construction and Pathways of Low-Carbon Transition of China's Power System[J]. Electric Power, 2021, 54(3): 1-11.

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https://www.electricpower.com.cn/CN/Y2021/V54/I3/1

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中国电力系统低碳发展分析模型构建与转型路径比较

Model Construction and Pathways of Low-Carbon Transition of China's Power System

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Model Construction and Pathways of Low-Carbon Transition of China's Power System

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