关键词: 分布式光伏, LCOE指标, 敏感性分析, 碳排放效益

Abstract: In order to provide reliable, low-carbon power, the development of distributed photovoltaic power generation is of great significance. This paper firstly improves the cost-of-use model by combining the factors of certificated emission reductions (CERs), and then analyzes the sensitivity of influencing factors of electricity cost and the impact of incentives such as loan methods on the economic efficiency of the project. Finally, through a case study, a comprehensive analysis is made on the economic benefits of grid-connected power generation under the typical operating modes based on the independent power producers and distribution companies. The results show that the distributed PV power generation brings both negative and positive returns to the distribution companies, while the spontaneous self-use model can bring more benefits to the independent investors. The change of the generating capacity has the biggest impact on the electricity cost. After considering the income of CERs, the effect of effective light hours and the decay rate of PV modules on the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) increases. The carbon emission benefit has certain influence on the project economic benefit. The improvement of carbon trading market and effective incentive mechanism will promote the development of photovoltaic industry.

Key words: distributed PV, LCOE indicator, sensitivity analysis, carbon emissions benefits