分布式光伏波动事件多级区间滚动预警方法

doi:10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202402058

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

大范围极端天气影响下的分布式光伏波动事件对电力系统功率平衡问题影响显著，可能引起弃光、切负荷等风险事故。为此，提出了基于区间分析理论的分布式光伏波动事件多级区间滚动预警方法，以针对分布式光伏波动事件可能的危害程度进行滚动预警。首先，明晰电力系统应对分布式光伏波动的功率调控机理，并制定预警等级，确定不同功率控制手段能够应对的分布式光伏波动幅度区间，即不同预警等级对应的预警界限；然后，依据分布式光伏波动的概率密度，通过对各预警区间内的概率密度积分，计算各预警等级的概率；最后，分析不同时间尺度下光伏波动预测精度的差异水平，通过定时滚动预警校正结果，实现分布式光伏波动事件多级区间滚动预警。算例结果表明，该方法能够在确定各预警区间界限的同时，决策电力系统在不同系统运行状态和光伏波动事件下的预警结果，且与蒙特卡洛法预警结果的均方根误差仅为1.6718%，进而验证了该方法的有效性和适用性。

关键词: 分布式光伏波动, 功率平衡, 区间分析, 滚动预警, 概率密度

Abstract:

Under the influence of large-area extreme weather conditions, the impact of distributed photovoltaic fluctuations on power system balance is significant and may lead to risks such as curtailment of solar power and load shedding. In response to these issues, this paper proposes a multi-level rolling warning method for distributed photovoltaic fluctuations based on interval analysis theory, aiming to provide a rolling warning of the potential harm of distributed photovoltaic fluctuations. Firstly, the power control mechanism for handling distributed photovoltaic fluctuations in the power system is clarified, and warning levels are established to determine the range of fluctuations that can be controlled by different power control measures, i.e., the warning thresholds corresponding to different warning levels. Secondly, based on the probability density of distributed photovoltaic fluctuations, the probabilities of each warning level are calculated by integrating the probability densities within each warning range. Finally, the differences in forecasting accuracy of photovoltaic fluctuations at different time scales are analyzed, and the rolling warning of distributed photovoltaic fluctuations is achieved by periodically adjusting the warning results. Case study results demonstrate that the proposed method can determine the thresholds for each warning range while providing warning results for different system operating conditions and photovoltaic fluctuation events. Moreover, the root mean square error of the warning results obtained with our method compared to those of the Monte Carlo method is only 1.6718%, thus verifying the effectiveness and applicability of the proposed method.

Key words: distributed photovoltaic fluctuation, power balance, interval analysis, rolling warning, probability density

周才期, 刘静利, 孙鹏凯, 张玉敏. 分布式光伏波动事件多级区间滚动预警方法[J]. 中国电力, 2024, 57(8): 96-107.

Caiqi ZHOU, Jingli LIU, Pengkai SUN, Yumin ZHANG. Multi-level Interval Rolling Warning Method for Distributed Photovoltaic Fluctuation Events[J]. Electric Power, 2024, 57(8): 96-107.

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链接本文: https://www.electricpower.com.cn/CN/10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202402058

https://www.electricpower.com.cn/CN/Y2024/V57/I8/96

图/表 9

图 1 分布式光伏波动事件多级区间滚动预警流程

Fig.1 Multi-stage interval rolling warning flow of distributed photovoltaic fluctuation events

表 1 算例采用的10机系统机组参数

Table 1 Generator parameters of 10-units power system used in case study

编号	最大允许出力/MW	最小允许出力/MW	最小开机时间/h	最小停机时间/h	爬坡速率/ (MW·h^–1)
1	455	150	8	8	91.0
2	455	150	8	8	91.0
3	130	20	5	5	26.0
4	130	20	5	5	26.0
5	162	25	6	6	32.4
6	80	20	3	3	16.0
7	85	25	3	3	17.0
8	55	10	1	1	11.0
9	55	10	1	1	11.0
10	55	10	1	1	11.0

图 2 算例1在06:00时的预警结果

Fig.2 Example 1: early warning results at 06:00

图 3 算例1在06:30时的预警结果

Fig.3 Example 1: early warning results at 06:30

图 4 算例1在07:00时的预警结果

Fig.4 Example 1: early warning results at 07:00

图 5 算例1在07:30时的预警结果

Fig.5 Example 1: early warning results at 07:30

图 6 算例2在07:30时的预警结果

Fig.6 Example 2: early warning results at 07:30

图 7 算例3在07:30时的预警结果

Fig.7 Example 3: early warning results at 07:30

图 8 算例1在06:00时蒙特卡洛法的预警结果

Fig.8 Example 1: early warning results with Monte Carlo method at 06:00

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