基于盲数理论的智能变电站全寿命周期成本估算

doi:10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.2016.03.083.05

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 为有效解决智能变电站全寿命周期成本分析过程中存在的多种不确定性因素的影响，在分析智能变电站各项成本特性的基础上引入盲数理论，建立了基于盲数理论的智能变电站全寿命周期成本理论估算数学模型。充分考虑资金的时间价值，分析了气体绝缘金属封闭式开关设备智能变电站和空气绝缘开关设备智能变电站融合盲数理论的全寿命周期成本的费用分解结构和计算方法。以某智能变电站为例进行计算分析，结果表明，与传统的确定性分析方法相比，所建模型能够计算出智能变电站全寿命周期成本的可能分布区间及其对应的可信度。

关键词: 智能变电站, 盲数理论, 全寿命周期成本, 智能电网, 经济性评估

Abstract: In order to solve the problems of uncertain factors existing in the process of life cycle cost estimation of smart substation, a blind number theory-based mathematical model is established for life cycle cost estimation of smart substation on the basis of an analysis of the cost characteristics of smart substations. With consideration of the time value of the capital, the breakdown structure and calculation method of the life cycle cost is analyzed with the blind number theory for both the gas-insulated switchgear smart substation and air-insulated switchgear smart substation. A smart substation is taken for case study and the results show that the proposed model is able to calculate the possible range and corresponding confidence of the life cycle cost of smart substations. Compared with the traditional deterministic analysis methods, the novel method is more scientific and rational in calculation results, and can provide the decision-making support for the cost optimization of smart substation project.

Key words: smart substation, blind number theory, life cycle cost, smart grid, economic assessment

中图分类号:

TP311

刘洋，苏浩益. 基于盲数理论的智能变电站全寿命周期成本估算[J]. 中国电力, 2016, 49(3): 83-87.

LIU Yang, SU Haoyi. Life Cycle Cost Estimation of Smart Substation Based on Blind Number Theory[J]. Electric Power, 2016, 49(3): 83-87.

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链接本文: https://www.electricpower.com.cn/CN/10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.2016.03.083.05

https://www.electricpower.com.cn/CN/Y2016/V49/I3/83

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