关键词: Bass模型, 电动汽车, 网络外部性, 保有量预测

Abstract: Predicting the inventory of electric vehicles accurately for future 10 years in China is significant for adjusting relevant established industrial policies, achieving the orderly development of electric vehicles, and guiding the layout of the upstream and downstream industries reasonably. After a comprehensive analysis of the plan for electric vehicles in future 10 years, the Bass model, which has an advantage in taking full account of the internal and external factors in predicting the spread of new products, is used to predict the inventory of electric vehicles in China under the condition of the baseline oil price and high oil price in 2020. The results indicate that the electric vehicles will witness a rapid development in the next 10 years and the high oil price can promote the spread of electric vehicles to some extent.

Key words: Bass model, electric vehicles, network externalities, inventory prediction