A New Method for Calculation of Transmission Line Tripping Probability Caused by Galloping of Iced Overhead Conductor

doi:10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202009114

Abstract

Abstract: The galloping of iced conductors seriously threatens the safety and stability of power systems, so it has become a focus for research to accurately calculate the transmission line tripping probability caused by the galloping of iced conductors. A new tripping probability calculation method is proposed based on the galloping equation, meterological information and fault information. Firstly, the probability distribution functions of wind speed and frozen rainfall are obtained using their respective historical samples; next, a single-degree-of-freedom galloping model of iced conductors is built according to the Newton law; and then, the Ritz-galerkin method is utilized to solve the galloping model to acquire the analytical expression of the galloping amplitude with the wind speed and icing thickness as independent variables; furthermore, the probability distribution function of icing thickness, which is the function of wind speed and frozen rainfall, is calculated using the probability distribution functions of wind speed and frozen rainfall, and then the probability distribution function of galloping amplitude is also calculated; finally, according to the Poisson distribution obtained by the historical fault records of galloping-caused tripping, the joint probability for the over-limit of galloping amplitude and the short-circuit fault is obtained, and the galloping-caused tripping probability of iced conductors is calculated using the Bayesian formula under the condition of over-limit of galloping amplitude. Case study has proved the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Key words: iced conductor, tripping probability, single-degree-of-freedom galloping model, wind speed, frozen rainfall, icing thickness

LIU Hui, MA Zengtai, LIN Jikeng, TIAN Hongqiang, YAN Bo, ZUO Chenliang. A New Method for Calculation of Transmission Line Tripping Probability Caused by Galloping of Iced Overhead Conductor[J]. Electric Power, 2022, 55(3): 125-132.

Add to citation manager EndNote|Ris|BibTeX

URL: https://www.electricpower.com.cn/EN/10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202009114

https://www.electricpower.com.cn/EN/Y2022/V55/I3/125

References

[1] 王勇, 苗虹, 莫思特, 等. 高压架空输电线路防冰、融冰、除冰技术研究综述[J]. 电力系统保护与控制, 2020, 48(18): 178–187
WANG Yong, MIAO Hong, MO Site, et al. Summary of research on anti-ice, ice melting and de-icing of high voltage overhead transmission lines[J]. Power System Protection and Control, 2020, 48(18): 178–187
[2] 念路鹏, 阳林, 郝艳捧, 等. 均匀覆冰时重冰区110 kV直线塔关键构件的受力分析[J]. 智慧电力, 2020, 48(1): 15–22
NIAN Lupeng, YANG Lin, HAO Yanpeng, et al. Forces analysis on key components of 110 kV tangent tower with uniform icing in heavy icing area[J]. Smart Power, 2020, 48(1): 15–22
[3] 郭应龙. 李国兴, 尤传永. 输电线路舞动[M]. 北京: 电力工业出版社, 2002: 1-15.
[4] 闵光云, 刘小会, 孙测世, 等. 架空输电线舞动方程建模及主共振分析[J]. 中国电力, 2021, 54(3): 125–131
MIN Guangyun, LIU Xiaohui, SUN Ceshi, et al. Galloping equation and primary resonance investigation of overhead transmission lines[J]. Electric Power, 2021, 54(3): 125–131
[5] 周坤涛, 郝淑英, 刘君, 等. 覆冰输电线结构及载荷对舞动的影响[J]. 振动与冲击, 2012, 31(1): 116–120
ZHOU Kuntao, HAO Shuying, LIU Jun, et al. Influence of conductor structure and loads on galloping of a transmission line[J]. Journal of Vibration and Shock, 2012, 31(1): 116–120
[6] DENHARTOG J P. Transmission line vibration due to sleet[J]. Electrical Engineering, 1932, 51(6): 413.
[7] NIGOL O, BUCHAN P G. Conductor galloping-part II torsional mechanism[J]. IEEE Transactions on Power Apparatus and Systems, 1981, PAS-100(2): 708–720.
[8] YU P, SHAH A H, POPPLEWELL N. Inertially coupled galloping of iced conductors[J]. Journal of Applied Mechanics, 1992, 59(1): 140–145.
[9] 莫海枢. 覆冰导线舞动分析的增量谐波平衡法应用研究[D]. 武汉: 华中科技大学, 2013.
MO Haishu. Incremental harmonic balance method for galloping of iced conductor[D]. Wuhan: Huazhong University of Science and Technology, 2013.
[10] 姜雄. 覆冰输电导线舞动特性矩阵摄动法研究[D]. 杭州: 浙江大学, 2016.
JIANG Xiong. Application of matrix perturbation method on galloping characteristic analysis of iced bundle conductor[D]. Hangzhou: Zhejiang University, 2016.
[11] 刘亚坤, 李林锐, 李世龙, 等. 架空输电线路的舞动幅值分析与试验研究[J]. 上海交通大学学报, 2016, 50(6): 825–830
LIU Yakun, LI Linrui, LI Shilong, et al. Analysis and experiment on galloping amplitude of transmission lines[J]. Journal of Shanghai Jiao Tong University, 2016, 50(6): 825–830
[12] 孙珍茂, 楼文娟. 覆冰输电导线舞动非线性有限元分析[J]. 电网技术, 2010, 34(12): 214–218
SUN Zhenmao, LOU Wenjuan. Nonlinear finite element analysis on galloping of ice-coated transmission line[J]. Power System Technology, 2010, 34(12): 214–218
[13] DESAI Y M, YU P, POPPLEWELL N, et al. Finite element modelling of transmission line galloping[J]. Computers & Structures, 1995, 57(3): 407–420.
[14] 张海峰. 输电线路舞动有限元分析[D]. 重庆: 重庆大学, 2010.
ZHANG Haifeng. Finite element analysis of transmission line galloping[D]. Chongqing: Chongqing University, 2010.
[15] 刘小会, 严波, 张宏雁, 等. 覆冰导线舞动非线性数值模拟方法[J]. 应用数学和力学, 2009, 30(4): 457–468
LIU Xiaohui, YAN Bo, ZHANG Hongyan, et al. Nonlinear numerical simulation method for galloping of iced conductor[J]. Applied Mathematics and Mechanics, 2009, 30(4): 457–468
[16] 王建. 输电线路气象灾害风险分析与预警方法研究[D]. 重庆: 重庆大学, 2016.
WANG Jian. Research on meteorological disaster risk analysis and fault early warning methods for overhead transmission lines[D]. Chongqing: Chongqing University, 2016.
[17] 阳林, 郝艳捧, 李立浧. 一种架空输电线路舞动预警方法: CN102095449A[P]. 2011-06-15.
YANG Lin, HAO Yanpeng, LI Lizheng. Method for alarming dancing of overhead transmission circuit: CN102095449A[P]. 2011-06-15.
[18] 国网湖南省电力公司, 国网湖南省电力公司防灾减灾中心, 湖南省湘电试研技术有限公司, 等. 一种电网线路舞动发生预测方法和系统: CN201710640834.2[P]. 2017-12-05.
[19] 安康, 林莘, 徐建源, 等. 一种架空输电线路舞动的监测方法: CN107044884A[P]. 2017-08-15.
AN Kang, LIN Shen, XU Jianyuan, et al. Monitoring method for overhead transmission line galloping: CN107044884A[P]. 2017-08-15.
[20] 周纪抑, 朱因远. 非线性振动[M]. 西安: 西安交通大学出版社, 1998: 1−15.
[21] 徐文军. 冰风暴灾害下输电线路故障概率预测及应急对策研究[D]. 长沙: 长沙理工大学, 2011.
XU Wenjun. Forecasting for failure probability and research on emergency strategy of transmission lines in ice strom[D]. Changsha: Changsha University of Science & Technology, 2011.
[22] 王乐, 杨帅, 朱时阳, 等. 基于泊松分布的输电线路跳闸概率预测方法[J]. 高电压技术, 2017, 43(11): 3777–3783
WANG Le, YANG Shuai, ZHU Shiyang, et al. Prediction method of transmission line trip probability based on Poisson distribution[J]. High Voltage Engineering, 2017, 43(11): 3777–3783
[23] 王津宇, 李哲, 刘善峰, 等. 基于风险系数的输电线路覆冰舞动预警方法[J]. 高压电器, 2019, 55(9): 194–199
WANG Jinyu, LI Zhe, LIU Shanfeng, et al. Early warning method of iced transmission line galloping based on risk coefficient[J]. High Voltage Apparatus, 2019, 55(9): 194–199
[24] 孙求国, 聂一雄, 王星华. 输电线路舞动在线监测预警判据的研究[J]. 电力科学与技术学报, 2012, 27(2): 52–56
SUN Qiuguo, NIE Yixiong, WANG Xinghua. Research on the warning criterions of transmission line galloping on-line monitoring system[J]. Journal of Electric Power Science and Technology, 2012, 27(2): 52–56
[25] 夏令志, 程洋, 严波, 等. 2018年1月安徽电网输电线路覆冰舞动故障规律分析[J]. 安徽电气工程职业技术学院学报, 2019, 24(1): 73–77
XIA Lingzhi, CHENG Yang, YAN Bo, et al. Analysis of faults of icing and galloping of transmission lines in Anhui power grid in January of 2018[J]. Journal of Anhui Electrical Engineering Professional Technique College, 2019, 24(1): 73–77