Scenario Prediction of Provincial Primary Energy Supply under Low Carbon Background: A Case Study of Zhejiang Province

doi:10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.201811093

Electric Power ›› 2020, Vol. 53 ›› Issue (2): 20-28,163.DOI: 10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.201811093

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Scenario Prediction of Provincial Primary Energy Supply under Low Carbon Background: A Case Study of Zhejiang Province

WEN Fan¹, LIU Jun¹, NIU Dongxiao², SUN Ze², LIANG Yi², XIAO Yao³

1. Economic and Technological Research Institute, State Grid Zhejiang Electric Power Co. Ltd., Hangzhou 310008, China;
2. School of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China;
3. State Grid Liaoyang Electric Power Company, Liaoyang 111000, China

Received:2018-11-22 Revised:2019-09-08 Online:2020-02-05 Published:2020-02-05
Supported by:
This work is supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.71471059) and Science and Technology Project of State Grid Zhejiang Electric Power Co., Ltd. (No.SGJS0000FZWT1700356)

Abstract

Abstract: With the rapid development of China's economy, carbon emissions are increasing and environmental damage is becoming more and more serious. It is of great practical significance and practical value to study the evolution trend of regional energy supply from the perspective of low carbon development. Therefore, Zhejiang Province is used as an example to set three scenarios: routine development scenario, policy development scenario, and technology development scenario for the primary energy supply trend of coal, oil and natural gas. Based on the scenario prediction of low-carbon energy supply in Zhejiang Province by multivariate linear regression models, it can be concluded that low-carbon development will affect the structure of regional energy supply, which is conducive to the planning of primary energy supply in the region.

Key words: low carbon background, energy supply, scenario forecast, multivariate linear regression

WEN Fan, LIU Jun, NIU Dongxiao, SUN Ze, LIANG Yi, XIAO Yao. Scenario Prediction of Provincial Primary Energy Supply under Low Carbon Background: A Case Study of Zhejiang Province[J]. Electric Power, 2020, 53(2): 20-28,163.

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Scenario Prediction of Provincial Primary Energy Supply under Low Carbon Background: A Case Study of Zhejiang Province

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