EMD-SVM-Based Price Forecast Model for Grid Equipment

doi:10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.2013.5.94.4

Abstract

Abstract: The equipment price of a grid project is nonlinear and non-stationary, and it is difficult to be estimated accurately. Therefore, the EMD-SVM model is built to divide the historical prices into smooth and periodically-fluctuating components with empirical mode decomposition(EMD). Take these components as input, their forecast values are obtained with support vector machine(SVM), and then these values are superimposed to gain the final forecast price. The comparison between the forecast price and the historical data of a 180-MVA transformer and the error analysis are carried out, which indicates that the EMD-SVM-based forecastion can effectively improve the accuracy of the equipment price forecast and is helpful for project cost control and equipment bidding.

Key words: grid equipment price, empirical mode decomposition (EMD), support vector machine (SVM), price forecasting

CLC Number:

TM-9

LU Yan-chao, WEN Wei-ning, ZHAO Biao, ZHENG Yan, SHI Xue-fei. EMD-SVM-Based Price Forecast Model for Grid Equipment[J]. Electric Power, 2013, 46(5): 94-98.

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URL: https://www.electricpower.com.cn/EN/10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.2013.5.94.4

https://www.electricpower.com.cn/EN/Y2013/V46/I5/94

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