Table 2 Estimation accuracy of three forecasting methods Method for Selecting Similar Days in Short-term Load Forecasting of Microgrid

doi:10.11930/j.issn.10.11930.2015.4.156

Abstract

Abstract: The small base load, high fluctuation and randomness of the microgrid increase the difficulty of short-term load forecasting. Scientific and proper selection of similar days can improve to some extent the effectiveness of the short-term load forecasting. Firstly, the factors which may affect selecting similar days are analyzed in this paper. Then, in view of the characteristics of microgrid load, a novel method for selecting similar days is proposed in microgrid short-time load forecasting based on load point scale. The proposed method considers the cumulative effects of the weather factors, the continuity and periodicity of short-term load and the effects of time distance, and its evaluation function of day character similarity takes into account of day similarity and partial similarity and introduces the time factor. Thus, the proposed method overcomes the subjectivity of the traditional method which is based on personal experience. Case study demonstrates that the proposed method can improve the accuracy of short-term forecasting and can be applied in practice.

Key words: microgrid, short-time load forecasting, similar days, day character similarity, local shape similarity, time factor

CLC Number:

TM715

ZHANG Lingling, YANG Mingyu, LIANG Wu. Table 2 Estimation accuracy of three forecasting methods Method for Selecting Similar Days in Short-term Load Forecasting of Microgrid[J]. Electric Power, 2015, 48(4): 156-160.

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URL: https://www.electricpower.com.cn/EN/10.11930/j.issn.10.11930.2015.4.156

https://www.electricpower.com.cn/EN/Y2015/V48/I4/156

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