中国风电发展与经济增长的协整分析

doi:10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.2013.3.1.3

中国电力 ›› 2013, Vol. 46 ›› Issue (3): 1-4.DOI: 10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.2013.3.1.3

• 电力规划 • 下一篇

中国风电发展与经济增长的协整分析

赵文会，丁会凯，施泉生，谢品杰

上海电力学院经济与管理学院,上海 200090

收稿日期:2012-11-05 出版日期:2013-03-05 发布日期:2015-12-10
作者简介:赵文会（1977—）,女,辽宁朝阳人,博士,副教授,硕士生导师,从事电力能源经济、系统分析与优化等研究。E-mail: wenhui_zhao@163.com
基金资助:
教育部人文社会科学研究一般项目（11YJC790295）; 上海市教委科研创新重点项目（13ZS121）; 上海市内涵建设（085工程）项目“能源经济与服务管理”

Analysis of Cointegration and Causality between Wind Power Development and Economic Growth in China

ZHAO Wen-hui, DING Hui-kai, SHI Quan-sheng, XIE Pin-jie

School of Economics and Management, Shanghai University of Electric Power, Shanghai 200090, China

Received:2012-11-05 Online:2013-03-05 Published:2015-12-10

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 研究风电发展与经济增长之间的关系对我国风电长远规划和投资战略的制定具有十分重要的意义。基于我国1991—2010年风电年新增装机容量与GDP情况对比数据,利用自回归分布滞后模型（ARDL）和基于误差修正模型的格兰杰（Granger）因果关系检验方法,对我国风电发展与经济增长的关系进行了验证和分析。结果表明,风电发展和经济增长之间存在稳定的长期均衡关系;但是,无论在长期还是短期内,两者之间都不存在Granger因果关系。

关键词: 风电发展, 经济增长, 协整分析, 自回归分布滞后模型（ARDL）

Abstract: The interaction between wind power development and economic growth plays an important role for formulating China’s long- term wind power planning and investment strategy. So it is significant to research the interaction between them. According to the relevant annual data during the period 1991-2010, the relationship between wind power development and economic growth in China is examined by applying autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach and Granger causality test method based on error correction model. The results indicate that a long-run equilibrium relationship exists between the wind power development and economic growth; the Granger causality, however, does not exist between these variables whether for the long-run or for the short-run.

Key words: wind power development, economic growth, cointegration analysis, autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL)

中图分类号:

TM614

赵文会，丁会凯，施泉生，谢品杰. 中国风电发展与经济增长的协整分析[J]. 中国电力, 2013, 46(3): 1-4.

ZHAO Wen-hui, DING Hui-kai, SHI Quan-sheng, XIE Pin-jie. Analysis of Cointegration and Causality between Wind Power Development and Economic Growth in China[J]. Electric Power, 2013, 46(3): 1-4.

导出引用管理器 EndNote|Ris|BibTeX

链接本文: https://www.electricpower.com.cn/CN/10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.2013.3.1.3

https://www.electricpower.com.cn/CN/Y2013/V46/I3/1

参考文献

[1] 谭忠富,于超. 节能减排目标下燃煤机组电量分配模糊优化模型[J]. 电网技术,2012,36（1）：219-223.
TAN Zhong-fu, YU Chao. A fuzzy optimization model for allocation of generated energy among coal-fired units with targets of energy saving and emission reduction[J]. Power System Technology, 2012, 36(1): 219-223.
[2] 谭忠富,董力通,刘文彦,等. 发电机组污染排放约束下电量互换合作博弈优化模型[J]. 电工技术学报,2012, 27（5）：245-251.
TAN Zhong-fu, DONG Li-tong, LIU Wen-yan, et al . A cooperation game optimization model for energy generating interchange between power generation units with environmental emission constraints[J]. Transactions of China Electrotechnical Society, 2012, 27(5): 245-251.
[3] 刘开俊. 风电并网对电网的影响分析及解决方案[J]. 中国电力,2012,45（9）：7-10.
LIU Kai-jun. Impacts and solutions of wind power interation on grids[J]. Electric Power, 2012, 45(9): 7-10.
[4] DUKPA A, DUGGAL I, VENKATESH B, et al . Optimal participation and risk mitigation of wind generators in an electricity market[J]. IEEE Transactions on Renewable Power Generation, 2010, 4(2): 165-175.
[5] 周任军,姚龙华,童小娇,等. 采用条件风险方法的含风电系统安全经济调度[J]. 中国电机工程学报,2012,32（1）：56-63.
ZHOU Ren-jun, YAO Long-hua, TONG Xiao-jiao, et al . Security economic dispatch in wind power integrated systems using a conditional risk method[J]. Proceeding of the CSEE, 2012, 32(1):56-63.
[6] BARINGO L, CONEJO A J. Wind power investment within a market environment[J]. Applied Energy, 2011, 88: 3239-3247.
[7] KUSIAK A, ZHENG H. Optimization of wind turbine energy and power factor with an evolutionary computation algorithm[J]. Energy, 2010, 35(3): 1324-1356.
[8] 朱柯丁,宋艺航,谭忠富,等. 中国风电并网现状及风电节能减排效益分析[J]. 中国电力,2011,44（6）：67-70,77.
ZHU Ke-ding, SONG Yi-hang, TAN Zhong-fu, et al . China wind power integration status quo and its benefit to energy and emission reduction[J]. Electric Power, 2011, 44(6): 67-70, 77.
[9] FANG Yi-ping. Economic welfare impacts from renewable energy consumption: the China experience[J]. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 2011, 15(9): 5120-5128.
[10] EDWIN G, TUGRUL U D. Impact of renewable energy technology on the economic growth of the USA[J]. Journal of the Knowledge Economy, 2010, 3(3): 233-249.
[11] CHARENZA W W, DEADMAN D F. New directions in econometric analysis[M]. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1997.
[12] PESARAN M H, SHIN Y, SMITH R J. Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships[J]. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2001, 16(3): 289-326.
[13] OUATTARA B. Foreign aid and fiscal policy in Senegal[M]. Mimeo University of Manchester, 2004.
[14] ENGEL R F, GRANGER, C W J. Cointergration and error- correction: representation, estimation, and testing[J]. Econometrica, 1987, 55(2): 251-276.

[1]	杨国华, 祁鑫, 贾睿, 刘一峰, 蒙飞, 马鑫, 邢潇文. 基于CEEMD-SE的CNN&LSTM-GRU短期风电功率预测[J]. 中国电力, 2024, 57(2): 55-61.
[2]	王晓晨, 金艳鸣, 张晋芳, 王晓晨, 杨冰. 考虑新能源大规模发展的差异化综合效益评价模型[J]. 中国电力, 2018, 51(10): 178-184.
[3]	刘京波, 宋鹏, 吴林林, 柳玉, 吴宇辉, 张扬帆. 风电场无功电压控制系统运行现状分析及提升措施[J]. 中国电力, 2018, 51(8): 130-138.
[4]	李建锋, 韩琴, 刘战礼. 基于风电机组分群的风电可靠性评价方法研究[J]. 中国电力, 2018, 51(6): 136-143.
[5]	吴正人, 李非, 路婷婷, 刘梅. 风力机尾流扰动对大气底层边界层的影响[J]. 中国电力, 2018, 51(6): 144-149.
[6]	李媛媛, 孙自安, 张志刚, 张世强, 张凌康, 贾宏刚, 张鑫. 大规模风电机组集中接入对系统短路电流的影响[J]. 中国电力, 2018, 51(4): 33-38,88.
[7]	吴涛, 刘立红, 王岱岚. 某风电场智能化远程集控系统设计[J]. 中国电力, 2018, 51(4): 161-167.
[8]	谢国辉, 何永胜, 王卿然. 中国东中部地区风电发展前景分析[J]. 中国电力, 2018, 51(3): 100-104.
[9]	谭茂强, 杨源, 贾斌, 李聪. 海上风电机组抗台风技术研究[J]. 中国电力, 2018, 51(2): 112-117.
[10]	丁显, 柳亦兵, 滕伟. 风电机组齿轮箱非平稳振动信号谱分析方法[J]. 中国电力, 2017, 50(12): 153-158.
[11]	孟杰, 潘巧波, 高庆水, 邓小文. 大型直驱风电机组快速响应优化控制策略[J]. 中国电力, 2017, 50(9): 165-170.
[12]	王宣元, 马莉, 曲昊源. 美国得克萨斯州风电消纳的市场运行机制及启示[J]. 中国电力, 2017, 50(7): 10-18.
[13]	姚刚, 赵翔宇, 贺先强, 黄晓旭, 朱椤方. 基于Power World的风电最优接入方案研究[J]. 中国电力, 2017, 50(6): 140-145.
[14]	卢佳. 计及功率平衡含风电的发电系统可靠性评估[J]. 中国电力, 2017, 50(6): 146-151.
[15]	赵洪山, 张健平, 李浪. 基于最优权重和隶属云的风电机组状态模糊综合评估[J]. 中国电力, 2017, 50(5): 88-94.

中国风电发展与经济增长的协整分析

Analysis of Cointegration and Causality between Wind Power Development and Economic Growth in China

PDF (PC)

可视化

被引次数

摘要/Abstract

引用本文

使用本文

参考文献

相关文章 15

编辑推荐

Metrics

模态框（Modal）标题

中国风电发展与经济增长的协整分析

Analysis of Cointegration and Causality between Wind Power Development and Economic Growth in China

PDF (PC)

可视化

被引次数

摘要/Abstract

引用本文

使用本文

参考文献

相关文章 15

编辑推荐

Metrics