适应新型电力系统的电网基建功能化投资结构演化研究

doi:10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202309072

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

构建新型电力系统不仅是物理形态的变革，更是生产组织关系的变革，伴随着大量的投资，如何保证投资效率将是构建新型电力系统的关键问题之一。当前，电网侧、电源侧、负荷侧形态发生了巨大变化，从功能化视角厘清投资结构变化是当前发现投资变化规律、引导资金高效投资、发现和改善电网基础建设投资效率的关键，尤其要发现功能化投资结构演变的规律。首先，通过系统动力学模型识别影响电网基建投资的关键因素，进一步研究各因素间的相互联系、相互影响和动态变化关系；在此基础上，系统仿真在关键情景下电网基建投资结构中各投资功能的演化趋势，为企业中长期电网投资决策提供建议和数据支撑，并推动电网基础设施优化升级，高质量构建新型电力系统。

关键词: 电网基建投资, 投资结构演变, 新型电力系统, 系统动力学

Abstract:

The construction of new power systems involves the change in both physical form and production organization relationships. With a large amount of investment, how to ensure investment efficiency will be one of the key problems in the construction of new power systems. At present, great changes have taken place in the form of the power grid side, power supply side, and load side. Clarifying the change in investment structure from the perspective of functionalization is the key to discovering the change law of investment, guiding the efficient investment of funds, exploring and improving the investment efficiency of power grid infrastructure, especially unveiling the evolution law of functional investment structure. First of all, the key factors affecting the power grid infrastructure investment were identified through the system dynamics model, and the interrelation, mutual influence, and dynamic change relationship among the factors were further studied. On this basis, the system simulated the evolution trend of each investment function in the power grid infrastructure investment structure under key scenarios, so as to provide suggestions and data support for the medium-term and long-term power grid investment decision-making of enterprises, promote the optimization and upgrading of power grid infrastructure, and build new power systems with higher quality.

Key words: power grid infrastructure investment, evolution of investment structure, new power system, system dynamics

朱瑞, 娄奇鹤, 靳晓凌, 刘畅. 适应新型电力系统的电网基建功能化投资结构演化研究[J]. 中国电力, 2024, 57(9): 194-204.

Rui ZHU, Qihe LOU, Xiaoling JIN, Chang LIU. Evolution of Functional Investment Structure of Power Grid Infrastructure Suitable for New Power System[J]. Electric Power, 2024, 57(9): 194-204.

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链接本文: https://www.electricpower.com.cn/CN/10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202309072

https://www.electricpower.com.cn/CN/Y2024/V57/I9/194

图/表 28

图 1 电网基建投资结构

Fig.1 Power grid infrastructure investment structure

图 2 电网基建投资系统因果回路

Fig.2 Causal loop of power grid infrastructure investment system

图 3 电网基建投资存量流量

Fig.3 Power grid infrastructure investment stock flow

图 4 分析场景设置

Fig.4 Analysis scenarios

表 1 全国电能在终端消费中的比例

Table 1 Proportion of national electric energy in terminal consumption 单位：%

模式	2020年	2025年	2030年	2035年	2050年	2060年
基准增长R1	40	43.75	47.5	51.25	62.5	70
持续增长R2	40	45.00	50.0	55.00	70.0	70

表 2 集中式与分布式新能源比例参数设定

Table 2 Parameter setting of centralized and distributed new energy ratios

模式	类型	2020年	2025年	2030年	2035年	2050年	2060年
低比例B1	集中式	0.85	0.75	0.65	0.55	0.55	0.55
低比例B1	分布式	0.15	0.25	0.35	0.45	0.45	0.45
基准比例B2	集中式	0.85	0.70	0.55	0.50	0.50	0.50
基准比例B2	分布式	0.15	0.30	0.45	0.50	0.50	0.50
高比例B3	集中式	0.85	0.65	0.45	0.35	0.35	0.35
高比例B3	分布式	0.15	0.35	0.55	0.65	0.65	0.65

表 3 需求侧资源渗透率参数设定

Table 3 Parameter setting of demand-side resource penetration rate

模式	2020年	2025年	2030年	2035年	2050年	2060年
低比例C1	2	3	5	7	8	9
基准比例C2	3	5	8	9	10	10
高比例C3	4	6	10	12	15	15

表 4 单位辅助服务收入参数设定

Table 4 Parameter setting of unit ancillary service income

模式		单位辅助服务收入/(元·(kW·h)^–1)
低情景A1		0.4
基准情景A2		0.5
高情景A3		0.6

图 5 电气化水平对提升输送电能力投资占比影响

Fig.5 Impact of electrification level on proportion of investment in upgrading power transmission capacity

图 6 电气化水平对提升调节能力投资占比的影响

Fig.6 Impact of electrification level on proportion of investment in upgrading regulation capacity

图 7 电气化水平对提升数字化水平投资占比影响

Fig.7 Impact of electrification level on proportion of investment in upgrading digitization level

图 8 电气化水平提升电源接入能力投资占比影响

Fig.8 Impact of electrification level on proportion of investment in upgrading power access capacity

图 9 电气化水平对提升负荷增长投资占比的影响

Fig.9 Impact of electrification level on proportion of investment in upgrading load growth

图 10 新能源规模对提升输送电能力投资占比影响

Fig.10 Impact of new energy source scale on proportion of investment in upgrading power transmission capacity

图 11 新能源规模对提升调节能力投资占比的影响

Fig.11 Impact of new energy source scale on proportion of investment in upgrading regulation capacity

图 12 新能源规模对提升数字化水平投资占比影响

Fig.12 Impact of new energy source scale on proportion of investment in upgrading digitization level

图 13 新能源规模对电源接入能力投资占比的影响

Fig.13 Impact of new energy source scale on proportion of investment in upgrading power access capacity

图 14 新能源规模对提升负荷增长投资占比的影响

Fig.14 Impact of new energy source scale on proportion of investment in upgrading load growth

图 15 需求响应对提升输送电能力投资占比的影响

Fig.15 Impact of demand response on proportion of investment in upgrading power transmission capacity

图 16 需求响应对提升调节能力投资占比的影响

Fig.16 Impact of demand response on proportion of investment in upgrading regulation capacity

图 17 需求响应对提升数字化水平投资占比的影响

Fig.17 Impact of demand response on proportion of investment in upgrading digitization level

图 18 需求响应对提升电源接入能力投资占比影响

Fig.18 Impact of demand response on proportion of investment in upgrading power access capacity

图 19 需求响应对提升负荷增长投资占比的影响

Fig.19 Impact of demand response on proportion of investment in upgrading load growth

图 20 辅助服务对提升输送电能力投资占比影响

Fig.20 Impact of ancillary service on proportion of investment in upgrading power transmission capacity

图 21 辅助服务对提升调节能力投资占比的影响

Fig.21 Impact of ancillary service on proportion of investment in upgrading regulation capacity

图 22 辅助服务对提升数字化水平投资占比的影响

Fig.22 Impact of ancillary service on proportion of investment in upgrading digitalization level

图 23 辅助服务对提升电源接入能力投资占比影响

Fig.23 Impact of ancillary service on proportion of investment in upgrading power access capacity

图 24 辅助服务对提升负荷增长投资占比影响

Fig.24 Impact of ancillary service on proportion of investment in upgrading load growth

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