关键词: 发电, 可再生能源配额, CO₂排放, 预测

Abstract: The power generation is the key area of carbon emission reduction in China. In order to reach the goals of reducing the CO₂ emission per unit of GDP by 40%~45% from that in 2005 and raising the weight of the non-fossil energy in the primary energy consumption to around 15%, the National Energy Administration plans to introduce the renewable portfolio standard, i.e. the ratio of the electricity production from non-hydro renewable energy resources to that from the coal fired power stations shall be higher than 15%. Based on the national “Energy Development Strategy Action Plan (2014–2020)” and the proposed policy of the renewable energy quota, the CO₂ emission of the power generation in 2020 is predicted, and the targets of carbon emission reduction are calculated. The results show that by applying the quota (15%) of non-hydro renewable energy, the electricity generated by non-hydro renewable energy resources will reach 7 514×10⁸ kW·h, accounting for 9.94% of the total generation, and the CO₂ emission will be 580.5 kg/(MW·h), decreasing by 27.4% from that in 2005.

Key words: power generation, quota of renewable energy, CO₂ emission, prediction