“十五五”电网规划安全稳定分析关键问题

doi:10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202504017

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

“十五五”时期是中国实现碳达峰标志性目标的关键阶段，新能源发电的发展超预期，电网规划面临前所未有的挑战与机遇。分析了“十五五”时期电网新能源高占比出力成为常态、输配电网动态过程耦合、系统规模增长对稳定性提升作用弱化的技术特点。对应其特点，在“十五五”电网规划的安全稳定分析中，要开展安全稳定分析典型方式筛选、考虑分布式电源的负荷建模、电力电子化电源的承载能力、短路电流综合治理等研究工作。在新技术应用方面，要针对不同场景，开展构网型技术应用、输电技术路线选择等研究工作。

关键词: “十五五”规划, 电网规划, 新能源, 安全稳定

Abstract:

The "15th Five-Year Plan" period represents a critical phase for China to achieve its landmark carbon peaking target. With the development of new energy power generation exceeding expectations, power grid planning faces unprecedented challenges and opportunities. This paper examines the technical characteristics of power grids during this period, including the normalization of high-proportion new energy output, the dynamic process coupling of transmission and distribution networks, and the weakening effect of system scale growth on stability improvement. To address these characteristics, the paper proposes key research directions for security and stability analysis in grid planning during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, which include: screening typical scenarios for stability analysis, load modeling incorporating distributed generations, load capacity of power electronics-dominated generation systems, and comprehensive short-circuit current management. In technological innovation, the paper suggests such scenario-specific studies as application of grid-forming technologies, optimal selection of transmission technology solutions, etc.

Key words: 15th Five-Year Plan, power grid planning, renewable energy, security and stability

周勤勇, 郝绍煦, 董武, 张立波, 张健, 贺海磊, 赵蕾蕾. “十五五”电网规划安全稳定分析关键问题[J]. 中国电力, 2025, 58(9): 138-147.

ZHOU Qinyong, HAO Shaoxu, DONG Wu, ZHANG Libo, ZHANG Jian, HE Hailei, ZHAO Leilei. Key Issues in Security and Stability Analysis for the "15th Five-Year" Power Grid Planning[J]. Electric Power, 2025, 58(9): 138-147.

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链接本文: https://www.electricpower.com.cn/CN/10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202504017

https://www.electricpower.com.cn/CN/Y2025/V58/I9/138

图/表 13

图 1 2030年新能源发电不同出力占比累积持续时间

Fig.1 Cumulative duration of the different proportion of new energy generation output in 2030

表 1 分布式新能源不同模型对山东电网受电能力的影响

Table 1 Impacts of distributed renewable energy models on power receiving capacity of Shandong Grid 单位：GW

模型	常规电源+集中式新能源出力	分布式新能源出力	受电能力
详细建模	30+30	25	18
负负荷	30+30	25	30
不考虑	30+30		34

图 2 华东电力系统装机容量、线路长度、变电容量、负荷规模变化情况

Fig.2 Variation in installed capacity, line length, substation capacity, and load scale of the East China power system

图 3 华东电力系统规模变化情况

Fig.3 Scale variation of the East China power system

图 4 平均电气距离与系统规模演化关系曲线

Fig.4 Evolutionary curve of average electrical distance vs. system scale

图 5 短路容量与系统规模演化关系曲线

Fig.5 Evolutionary curve of short circuit capacity vs. system scale

图 6 系统动能与系统规模演化关系

Fig.6 Evolutionary curve of kinetic energy vs. system scale

图 7 西北电网典型运行方式在全年8760 h方式中的分布

Fig.7 Distribution of typical operating modes of the Northwest power grid in the annual 8760-hour operation scheme

图 8 某220 kV变电站详细拓扑结构

Fig.8 Detailed topology structure of a 220 kV substation

图 9 某220 kV变电站分布式新能源+负荷等值模型

Fig.9 Distributed new energy+load equivalent model for a 220 kV substation

图 10 220 kV三相永久短路故障下母线电压和功率曲线

Fig.10 Bus voltage and power curves under 220 kV three-phase permanent short circuit fault

图 11 500 kV站短路电流时间特性

Fig.11 Time characteristics of short-circuit current in 500 kV stations

表 2 各类输电技术对比

Table 2 Comparison of various transmission technologies

项目	VSC	CLCC	SLCC	LFAC
电网强度要求	跟网控制：SCR＞1.5；构网控制：无要求	SCR＞2	SCR＞1.5
换相失败风险	无	无	低	无
电压支撑能力	具备	不具备	理论上具备	具备
短路电流贡献	有	无	有
构网能力	可采用构网控制	无	SVG可构网	可采用构网控制
工程示范	±800 kV甘浙直流即将投运	±500 kV葛南直流改造	±500 kV扬镇直流Ⅱ期	已建成示范工程3项，最高电压等级220 kV
适用场景	送端：支撑能力较弱、电源汇集范围广的沙戈荒、藏东南新能源基地外送系统；受端：多直流集中馈入电网	多直流集中馈入电网	对直流支撑能力需求高的沙戈荒、藏东南外送系统	2000 MW内，70~150 km范围深远海大容量新能源的汇集和送出

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