考虑中长期碳减排约束的区域综合能源系统多阶段动态规划

doi:10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202211028

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

在长时间尺度下，内部技术革新、外部环境影响使得综合能源系统的运行场景日益复杂。立足区域能源资源的经济优化配置，兼顾碳减排要求，提出考虑中长期碳减排约束的综合能源系统多阶段动态规划模型。模型可预设灵活的阶段划分规则和不同的碳减排模式，以规划周期内区域整体供能成本最低为目标，采用混合整数线性规划方法进行求解，得到最优设备配置方案。同时，引入学习曲线模型预估规划期内设备成本变化趋势，并考虑氢能、碳交易等新兴碳减排手段。针对典型算例的仿真结果表明：规划阶段划分数的增加可实现更有效的供需动态匹配，系统经济性和减排效果均得到有效提升。同时，不同碳减排约束模式将导致差异化的碳排放路径，需要结合区域减碳目标进行减排约束的合理设置。

关键词: 综合能源系统, 分阶段规划, 中长期碳减排, 优化配置, 碳交易

Abstract:

On a long-term scale, internal technological innovation and external environmental impact make the operation scenario of an integrated energy system increasingly complex. Based on the economic optimal configuration of regional energy resources and carbon emission reduction requirements, this paper proposes a multi-stage dynamic planning model for integrated energy systems considering medium and long-term carbon emission reduction constraints. The model can preset flexible stage division rules and different carbon emission reduction modes, and the optimal equipment allocation scheme is obtained by using a mixed integer linear programming method with the objective of minimizing the overall regional energy supply cost in the planning cycle. At the same time, a learning curve model is introduced to predict the change trend of equipment cost during the planning cycle, and new carbon reduction means such as hydrogen energy and carbon sink are considered. The simulation results for typical cases show that the increase in the number of planning stages achieves more effective dynamic matching of supply and demand, and the system economy and emission reduction effect are effectively improved. At the same time, different carbon emission reduction constraint patterns will lead to different carbon emission paths, which need to consider regional carbon reduction targets for the reasonable setting of emission reduction constraints.

Key words: integrated energy system, multi-stage planning, medium and long-term carbon reduction, optimal configuration, carbon trading

王小飞, 任洪波, 吴琼, 李琦芬. 考虑中长期碳减排约束的区域综合能源系统多阶段动态规划[J]. 中国电力, 2023, 56(11): 185-196.

Xiaofei WANG, Hongbo REN, Qiong WU, Qifen LI. Multi-stage Dynamic Plan of Regional Integrated Energy System Considering Medium and Long-Term Carbon Emission Reduction Constraints[J]. Electric Power, 2023, 56(11): 185-196.

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链接本文: https://www.electricpower.com.cn/CN/10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202211028

https://www.electricpower.com.cn/CN/Y2023/V56/I11/185

图/表 14

图 1 综合能源系统能流

Fig.1 Energy flow of integrated energy system

图 2 初始年度典型日负荷

Fig.2 Initial annual typical daily load

表 1 初始年度各设备技术和经济参数

Table 1 Technical and economic parameters of each equipment in initial year

设备	单位容量成本/ (元·kW^–1)	固定运维成本/ (元·(kW·y)^–1)	可变运维成本/ (元·(kW·h)^–1)	效率	寿命/ 年
光伏	3500.0	100.500	0.2070	0.28	20
内燃机	8280.0	124.200	0.0900	0.39/ 0.36	20
锅炉	910.8	138.000	0.0138	0.89	20
热泵	2277.0	138.000	0.0138	3.20	10
吸收式制冷机	2656.5	138.000	0.0138	0.70	15
电制冷器	1062.6	138.000	0.0138	4.0	15
燃料电池	10070.6	29.670	0.2415	0.42/ 0.52	10
锂电池	5030.1	51.405	0.0157	0.92	20
蓄热罐	138.0	13.800	0.0157	0.85	20
蓄冷罐	138.0	13.800	0.0157	0.85	20

图 3 规划周期内设备单位容量投资成本变化趋势

Fig.3 Trend of investment cost for unit capacity of equipment during planning cycle

图 4 规划周期内设备效率经年变化

Fig.4 Equipment efficiency change during planning cycle

图 5 四季典型日的逐时太阳辐照度

Fig.5 Hourly solar irradiance in typical days

图 6 初始年度能源价格

Fig.6 Energy prices in initial year

图 7 天然气和电网碳排放因子以及碳价变化趋势

Fig.7 Carbon emission factors of natural gas and power grid and change trend of carbon price

表 2 情景设置情况

Table 2 Scenario settings

情景	子情景	2 阶段	4 阶段	20 阶段	减排 10%	减排 20%	减排30%	碳交易
1	A	√
1	B		√
2	A			√
	B			√	√
	C			√		√
	D			√			√
3	A			√			√	√
3	B			√			末年排放为初始年的30%	√

图 8 各情景总供能成本对比

Fig.8 Total energy cost of various scenarios

图 9 规划周期内各情景的碳排放情况

Fig.9 Carbon emissions for each scenario during planning cycle

图 10 情景1设备配置情况

Fig.10 Equipment configuration of scenario 1

图 11 情景2设备配置情况

Fig.11 Equipment configuration of scenario 2

图 12 情景3设备配置情况

Fig.12 Equipment configuration of scenario 3

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