基于结构分解模型的中国电力消费驱动因素研究

doi:10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.201904064

中国电力 ›› 2019, Vol. 52 ›› Issue (12): 123-131.DOI: 10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.201904064

基于结构分解模型的中国电力消费驱动因素研究

光峰涛¹, 何永秀¹, 尤培培², 高效²

1. 华北电力大学经济与管理学院北京 102206;
2. 国网能源研究院有限公司, 北京 102209

收稿日期:2019-04-14 修回日期:2019-07-30 发布日期:2019-12-05
通讯作者: 光峰涛(1992-),男,通信作者,博士研究生,从事电力经济管理研究,E-mail:Guangft@126.com
作者简介:何永秀(1970-),女,博士,教授,从事电力经济管理研究,E-mail:yongxiuhe@126.com;尤培培(1984-),女,硕士,工程师,从事电价理论与机制研究,E-mail:youpeipei@sgeri.sgcc.com.cn;高效(1980-),女,博士,高级工程师,从事电气工程、电力技术经济研究,E-mail:gaoxiao@sgeri.sgcc.com.cn
基金资助:
国家电网有限公司科技项目（售电侧放开模式下零售电价价格政策研究及应用，SGNY0000CSJS1800046）；中央高校青年培养项目（新常态下中国电力能源的消费特征解析，2019QN078）

The Influencing Factors of China's Electricity Consumption Based on Structural Decomposition Analysis

GUANG Fengtao¹, HE Yongxiu¹, YOU Peipei², GAO Xiao²

1. School of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 10226, China;
2. State Grid Energy Research Institute, Beijing 102209, China

Received:2019-04-14 Revised:2019-07-30 Published:2019-12-05
Supported by:
This work is supported by the Science Technology Project Fund of the State Grid Corporation of China (Investigation of Retail Electricity Price Policies and its Application under the Reform of Electric Sale Side, No.SGNY0000SJS1800046) and the Central University Youth Doctoral Foundation (The Characteristics of China’s Electricity Consumption in the New Normal, No.2019QN078)

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 自中国经济步入院系新常态以来，电力消费年均增速放缓，与经济增速表现背离。在电力能源投入产出分析的基础上，对中国电力消费驱动因素进行结构分解分析，比较不同经济阶段各因素的作用机制，解析电力消费的增长模式，探究其年均增速放缓的原因。结果表明：人均最终需求水平一直是电力消费增长最大的增量因素，但其贡献比例呈递减趋势；除2010-2012年阶段外，电力直接能耗系数一直是电力消费增长最大的减量因素，而最终需求结构以较小的拉动率促进电力消费增长；电力消费的增长动力来源由净出口驱动（2005-2007年）为主转变投资驱动（2007-2010年）为主，再向消费驱动（2010-2015年）为主过渡。

关键词: 电力消费, 投入产出分析, 结构分解, 消费驱动, 影响因素

Abstract: Since the economic development has stepped into a new normal phase in China, the average annual growth rate of its electricity consumption has slowed down, which shows the deviation from the rate of economic growth. Based on the input-output analysis for electrical energy, structural decomposition analysis is carried out to evaluate the driving factors for the changes of use in relation to electricity consumption. By comparing the effects of various factors among different economic stages and analyzing the growth patterns of electricity consumption, we aim to investigate the reasons for the slowing annual growth rate of electricity consumption. Results show that: per capita final demand level has always been the major driving factor of the growth in electricity consumption, but its proportion of contribution has a decreasing tendency. Except for the period of 2010-2012, direct electricity consumption coefficients have always the primary factor which causes the decrease of electricity consumption, but the final demand structure promotes the growth of electricity consumption with a relatively smaller pulling rate. The engine of electricity consumption growth shifted from export-driven in 2005-2007 to investment-driven in 2007-2010 and consumption-driven in 2010-2015.

Key words: electricity consumption, input-output analysis, structural decomposition, consumption-driven, influencing factors

中图分类号:

F206

光峰涛, 何永秀, 尤培培, 高效. 基于结构分解模型的中国电力消费驱动因素研究[J]. 中国电力, 2019, 52(12): 123-131.

GUANG Fengtao, HE Yongxiu, YOU Peipei, GAO Xiao. The Influencing Factors of China's Electricity Consumption Based on Structural Decomposition Analysis[J]. Electric Power, 2019, 52(12): 123-131.

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链接本文: https://www.electricpower.com.cn/CN/10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.201904064

https://www.electricpower.com.cn/CN/Y2019/V52/I12/123

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基于结构分解模型的中国电力消费驱动因素研究

The Influencing Factors of China's Electricity Consumption Based on Structural Decomposition Analysis

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基于结构分解模型的中国电力消费驱动因素研究

The Influencing Factors of China's Electricity Consumption Based on Structural Decomposition Analysis

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