经济转型时期电力弹性系数应用

doi:10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.201709001

中国电力 ›› 2017, Vol. 50 ›› Issue (12): 1-4.DOI: 10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.201709001

• 电力经济 • 下一篇

经济转型时期电力弹性系数应用

单葆国, 李江涛, 谭显东, 单保平

1. 华北电力大学资源与环境系统优化教育部重点实验室，北京　102206;
2. 国网能源研究院有限公司，北京　102209;
3. 国网山东诸城市供电公司，山东诸城　262200

收稿日期:2017-09-01 出版日期:2017-12-20 发布日期:2018-01-30
作者简介:单葆国（1971—），男，山东诸城人，高级工程师（教授级），从事宏观经济、能源供需、电力供需、节能节电、电力需求侧管理等领域研究。E-mail：shanbaoguo@sgeri.sgcc.com.cn
基金资助:
国家重点研发计划资助项目（2016YFB0900100）；国家电网公司科技项目（XM2017020034761）

The Application of Electricity Elasticity Coefficient During Economic Transition Period

SHAN Baoguo, LI Jiangtao, TAN Xiandong, SHAN Baoping

1. MOE Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Systems Optimization, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206,China;
2. State Grid Energy Research Institute Co.,Ltd., Beijing 102209,China;
3. State Grid Zhucheng Power Supply Company, Zhucheng 262200, China

Received:2017-09-01 Online:2017-12-20 Published:2018-01-30
Supported by:
This work is supported by National Key Research and Development Program of China (No. 2016YFB0900100) and the Science and Technology Project of SGCC (No. XM2017020034761).

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 分析1978年以来中国电力弹性系数的变化情况，总结电力弹性系数短期波动的主要原因，提炼电力弹性系数波动的长期规律；对比典型发达国家电力弹性系数的变化经验，提出在经济转型时期应用电力弹性系数的方法，对中国“十三五”、“十四五”、“十五五”电力需求预测结果进行校核。

关键词: 电力弹性系数, 经济社会发展, 电力消费增长, 电力需求预测

Abstract: Based on an analysis of the variation of China’s electricity elasticity coefficient since 1978, this paper elaborates the reasons for the large variation of China’s electricity elasticity coefficient in the short term, and finds out the long-term pattern of the variation. Through comparison with the developed countries’ experience in electricity elasticity coefficient variation, a method is proposed for the application of electricity elasticity coefficient during economic transition period, and a check is made on the power demand forecasting for the 13th, 14th and 15th Five-Year Periods (2016–2020, 2021–2025 and 2026–2030, respectively).

Key words: electricity elasticity coefficient, economic and social development, electricity consumption growth, power demand forecasting

中图分类号:

TM715

单葆国, 李江涛, 谭显东, 单保平. 经济转型时期电力弹性系数应用[J]. 中国电力, 2017, 50(12): 1-4.

SHAN Baoguo, LI Jiangtao, TAN Xiandong, SHAN Baoping. The Application of Electricity Elasticity Coefficient During Economic Transition Period[J]. Electric Power, 2017, 50(12): 1-4.

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经济转型时期电力弹性系数应用

The Application of Electricity Elasticity Coefficient During Economic Transition Period

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经济转型时期电力弹性系数应用

The Application of Electricity Elasticity Coefficient During Economic Transition Period

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