中国电力 ›› 2017, Vol. 50 ›› Issue (12): 27-32.DOI: 10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.201708235

• 电力经济 • 上一篇    下一篇

经济新常态下宁夏电力需求分析与展望

田星, 余蕾, 董晓晶, 齐彩娟   

  1. 1. 国网宁夏电力公司经济技术研究院,宁夏 银川 750004;
    2. 国网宁夏电力公司,宁夏 银川 750001
  • 收稿日期:2017-08-16 出版日期:2017-12-20 发布日期:2018-01-30
  • 作者简介:田星(1985—),男,宁夏中宁人,工程师,从事电力市场分析、电网规划等研究,E–mail:ph0012@163.com
  • 基金资助:
    国家电网公司科技项目(5229JY160003)

Analysis and Prospect of Electricity Demand in Ningxia under China’s New Normal

TIAN Xing, YU Lei, DONG Xiaojing, QI Caijuan   

  1. 1. State Grid Ningxia Electric Power Economic Research Institute, Yinchuan 750004, China;
    2. State Grid Ningxia Electric Power Company, Yinchuan 750001, China
  • Received:2017-08-16 Online:2017-12-20 Published:2018-01-30
  • Supported by:
    This work is supported by Science and Technotogy Projecl of State Grid (No.5229JY160003).

摘要: 通过分析宁夏地区近年来的经济发展新特征和电力需求变化,从宏观层面和微观作用机理两个维度剖析经济新常态对电力需求的影响,利用适应“S”型增长的动态灰色Verhulst模型对宁夏未来用电需求做出预测,以期为宁夏电力规划和电力工业布局提供参考。

关键词: 用电需求分析, 经济改革, 电力需求预测, 灰色 Verhulst 模型

Abstract: Based on an analysis of the economic development characteristics and power demand changes in recent years in Ningxia, the influence of China’s new economic normal on the power demand is studied from two dimensions of macro and micro mechanism. The dynamic grey Verhulst model that suits S-type growth is used to forecast the future electricity demand of Ningxia, which can provide a reference for Ningxia’s electric power planning and power industry layout.

Key words: electricity demand analysis, economic reform, electricity demand forecast, Grey Verhulst

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