考虑电力调节多维价值的分时电价峰谷时段设置评估模型

doi:10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202502042

中国电力 ›› 2026, Vol. 59 ›› Issue (2): 114-126.DOI: 10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202502042

考虑电力调节多维价值的分时电价峰谷时段设置评估模型

李骏龙¹(), 张超¹(), 姜一恬²(), 姚力¹(), 尤培培¹(), 郭森²

1. 国网能源研究院有限公司，北京　102209
2. 华北电力大学，北京　102206

收稿日期:2025-02-18 修回日期:2025-10-15 发布日期:2026-03-04 出版日期:2026-02-28
作者简介:
李骏龙（1996），男，博士，从事电力价格机制、电力市场与电力系统优化规划研究，E-mail：lijunlong@sgeri.sgcc.com.cn
张超（1986），男，通信作者，博士，从事电价理论与方法、电力与能源价格政策等研究，E-mail：zhangchao@sgeri.sgcc.com.cn
姜一恬（2001），女，硕士，从事输配电价结构优化、绿色经济评价标准等研究，E-mail：jyt2001a@163.com
基金资助:
国家电网有限公司科技项目（西部大规模新能源基地外送系统经济性评价与成本疏导技术研究，1400-202356812A-3-8-KJ）。

Evaluation model for setting TOU electricity pricing peak and valley periods considering multi-dimensional value of power regulation

LI Junlong¹(), ZHANG Chao¹(), JIANG Yitian²(), YAO Li¹(), YOU Peipei¹(), GUO Sen²

1. State Grid Energy Research Institute Co., Ltd., Beijing 102209, China
2. North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China

Received:2025-02-18 Revised:2025-10-15 Online:2026-03-04 Published:2026-02-28
Supported by:
This work is supported by Science and Technology Project of SGCC (Research on Economic Evaluation and Cost Allocation Technology for External Transmission Systems of Large-Scale New Energy Bases in Western Regions, No.1400-202356812A-3-8-KJ).

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

分时电价政策是电力系统适应高比例清洁能源、增强安全保供能力的重要政策机制，其峰谷时段设置合理性成为近年来政策持续调整的评估要点。受限于数据可获得性和时效性，基于对比分析的传统评估方法难以适应新的评估要求。在梳理分时电价政策最新调整趋势的基础上，提出了基于电力调节多维价值的分时电价峰谷时段设置评估模型。利用混淆矩阵法摆脱对历史数据的过度依赖，通过创建电力调节多维价值体系避免“打地鼠”式削峰填谷，同时赋予评估模型灵活可调的参数权重，适用于不同预期、不同侧重的评估场景，为利用有限数据评估分时电价峰谷时段设置提供解决方案。最后，基于真实负荷数据、新能源出力数据及现货市场价格数据进行了评估模型验证，结果表明，所提模型对现行政策具有更好的匹配性，并具备基于参数权重调整进行前瞻性评估的灵活可调能力。

关键词: 分时电价, 削峰填谷, 电力负荷调节, 电价评估模型, 电力调节多维价值

Abstract:

Time-of-use (TOU) pricing policy serves as a crucial pricing mechanism for power systems to adapt to high penetration of clean energy and enhance security of power supply, and the rationality of peak-valley period setting has become a key evaluation metric for the ongoing adjustments of policies in recent years. However, limited by data availability and timeliness, the comparative analysis-based traditional evaluation methods are inadequate for the new evaluation demands. Based on a review of the latest trends in TOU pricing policy adjustments, this paper proposes an evaluation model for setting TOU pricing peak and valley periods incorporating the multidimensional value of power regulation. The model adopts the confusion matrix method to reduce its excessive reliance on historical data. In addition, it establishes a multidimensional value system for power regulation to avoid inefficient "whack-a-mole" approaches for peak-shaving and valley-filling. Meanwhile, designed with flexible and tunable parameter weights, it is applicable to diverse assessment scenarios with varying expectations and priorities, thereby providing a viable solution for evaluating TOU pricing periods under data constraints. Finally, the evaluation model is validated using real load data, renewable energy output data, and spot market price data. The results demonstrate that the proposed model achieves better alignment with current policies and possesses the flexible, adjustable capability to conduct forward-looking assessments based on parameter weight adjustments.

Key words: time-of-use electricity pricing, peak shaving and valley filling, power load regulation, electricity pricing evaluation model, multidimensional value of power regulation

李骏龙, 张超, 姜一恬, 姚力, 尤培培, 郭森. 考虑电力调节多维价值的分时电价峰谷时段设置评估模型[J]. 中国电力, 2026, 59(2): 114-126.

LI Junlong, ZHANG Chao, JIANG Yitian, YAO Li, YOU Peipei, GUO Sen. Evaluation model for setting TOU electricity pricing peak and valley periods considering multi-dimensional value of power regulation[J]. Electric Power, 2026, 59(2): 114-126.

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链接本文: https://www.electricpower.com.cn/CN/10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202502042

https://www.electricpower.com.cn/CN/Y2026/V59/I2/114

图/表 22

图 1 某地总负荷、净负荷及新能源出力情况

Fig.1 Total load, net load and clean energy output in a region

图 2 第1版分时电价政策执行后的净负荷曲线

Fig.2 Net load curve under the first version of TOU electricity price policy

图 3 第2版分时电价政策执行后的净负荷曲线

Fig.3 Net load curve under the second version of TOU electricity price policy

图 4 电力调节多维价值结构

Fig.4 Multi-dimensional value structure for power regulation

表 1 基于净负荷曲线的混淆矩阵

Table 1 Confusion matrix based on net load curve

	电价峰段	电价非峰段
负荷峰段	真正例 P_T	假负例 N_F
负荷非峰段	假正例 P_F	真负例 N_T

表 2 基于峰段削减价值的混淆矩阵

Table 2 Confusion matrix based on peak-shaving value

	电价峰段	电价非峰段
峰段削减价值较大值	真正例 $ {P}_{\rm pT} $	假负例 $ {N}_{\rm pF} $
峰段削减价值非较大值	假正例 $ {P}_{\rm pF} $	真负例 $ {N}_{\rm pT} $

表 3 基于谷段填充价值的混淆矩阵

Table 3 Confusion matrix based on valley-filling value

	电价谷段	电价非谷段
谷段填充价值较大值	真正例 $ {P}_{\rm vT} $	假负例 $ {N}_{\rm vF} $
谷段填充价值非较大值	假正例 $ {P}_{\rm vF} $	真负例 $ {N}_{\rm vT} $

图 5 典型日负荷、风光出力、现货价格及分时电价峰谷时段划分

Fig.5 Typical daily load, wind and solar power output, spot prices, and TOU pricing peak and valley periods

表 4 基于净负荷曲线的混淆矩阵评估结果

Table 4 Evaluation results of the net load curve-based confusion matrix

时段	真正率/%	假正率/%
电价峰段	75.00	12.00
电价谷段	75.00	12.00

图 6 典型日峰段削减价值各指标测算结果

Fig.6 Calculation results of peak-shaving value metrics for a typical day

图 7 典型日峰段削减价值各指标累计

Fig.7 Cumulative chart of peak-shaving value metrics for a typical day

图 8 典型日谷段填充价值各指标测算结果

Fig.8 Calculation results of valley-filling value metrics for a typical day

图 9 典型日谷段填充价值各指标累计

Fig.9 Cumulative chart of vally-filling value metrics for a typical day

表 5 基于电力调节多维价值曲线的混淆矩阵评估结果

Table 5 Evaluation results of power-regulation multi-dimensional value curve-based confusion matrix

时段	真正率/%	假正率/%
电价峰段	87.50	6.30
电价谷段	100.00	0.00

图 10 清洁能源发电比例提高后谷段填充价值各指标累计

Fig.10 Cumulative chart of valley-filling value metrics after increased clean energy penetration

图 11 清洁能源弃电率、清洁能源发电占比权重调大后谷段填充价值各指标累计

Fig.11 Cumulative chart of valley-filling value metrics after increased clean energy curtailment rate and clean energy share weight

图 12 2024年华东某省净负荷分布

Fig.12 Net load distribution map in a province in Eastern China, 2024

图 13 2024年华东某省峰段削减价值各指标累计

Fig.13 Cumulative chart of peak-shaving value metrics in a province in Eastern China, 2024

图 14 2024年华东某省谷段填充价值各指标累计

Fig.14 Cumulative chart of valley-filling value metrics in a province in Eastern China, 2024

图 15 2024年华东某省基于峰段削减价值的混淆矩阵评估结果

Fig.15 Confusion matrix evaluation results based on peak-shaving value in a province in Eastern China, 2024

图 16 2024年华东某省基于谷段填充价值的混淆矩阵评估结果

Fig.16 Confusion matrix evaluation results based on valley-filling value in a province in Eastern China, 2024

表 6 基于净负荷曲线与价值曲线的年均混淆矩阵评估结果

Table 6 Annual average confusion matrix evaluation results from net load and value curve data

时段	基于净负荷曲线		基于价值曲线
时段	真正率/%	假正率/%	真正率/%	假正率/%
电价峰段	58.00	21.00	74.10	12.90
电价谷段	73.00	13.50	82.50	8.90

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考虑电力调节多维价值的分时电价峰谷时段设置评估模型

Evaluation model for setting TOU electricity pricing peak and valley periods considering multi-dimensional value of power regulation

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考虑电力调节多维价值的分时电价峰谷时段设置评估模型

Evaluation model for setting TOU electricity pricing peak and valley periods considering multi-dimensional value of power regulation

RichHTML

PDF (PC)

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相关文章 15

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