基于双重差分模型的分时电价机制对用电成本的影响分析

doi:10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202311104

中国电力 ›› 2024, Vol. 57 ›› Issue (11): 173-182.DOI: 10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202311104

基于双重差分模型的分时电价机制对用电成本的影响分析

李骏龙¹(), 尤培培¹(), 张超¹, 方鲁睿², 张文哲³

1. 国网能源研究院有限公司，北京　102209
2. 西交利物浦大学智能工程学院，江苏苏州　215123
3. 国网重庆市电力公司，重庆　400015

收稿日期:2023-11-21 接受日期:2024-10-10 出版日期:2024-11-28 发布日期:2024-11-27
作者简介:李骏龙（1996—），男，博士，从事电力价格机制、电力市场与电力系统优化规划研究，E-mail：lijunlong@sgeri.sgcc.com.cn
尤培培（1984—），女，通信作者，硕士，正高级经济师，从事电价理论与方法、电力市场改革价格规则等研究，E-mail：youpeipei@sgeri.sgcc.com.cn
基金资助:
国网重庆市电力公司科技项目（价格改革转型下电力需求侧资源互动响应评估及定价技术研究，SGCQKH00SCJS2250078）。

Analysis on the Effect of Time-of-Use Electricity Price on Electricity Cost Based on Difference-in-Differences Model

Junlong LI¹(), Peipei YOU¹(), Chao ZHANG¹, Lurui FANG², Wenzhe ZHANG³

1. State Grid Energy Research Institute Co., Ltd., Beijing 102209, China
2. School of Advanced Technology, Xi'an Jiaotong-Liverpool University, Suzhou 215123, China
3. State Grid Chongqing Electric Power Company, Chongqing 400015, China

Received:2023-11-21 Accepted:2024-10-10 Online:2024-11-28 Published:2024-11-27
Supported by:
This work is supported by Science and Technology Project of State Grid Chongqing Electric Power Company (Research on the Evaluation and Pricing Technology of the Interactive Response of Power Demand Side Resources Under the Transformation of Price Reform, No.SGCQKH00SCJS2250078).

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

建立合理的分时电价机制是以度电价格信号激励用户提供负荷灵活性的重要手段，也是直接影响用户电力成本的关键政策。近年来，随着新型电力系统加快建设，中国各地区相继优化调整了分时电价政策。在梳理分时电价政策最新调整情况的基础上，构建了基于双重差分法计算分时电价对用户度电成本净影响的模型，并对双重差分法得到的政策效果系数进行解耦，通过多元回归模型得到分时电价机制对度电成本的作用机理。基于2022年与2023年7月多地区已执行和未执行分时电价的不同电力用户的真实度电成本数据，分析了分时电价对各地区、各类别、各电压等级用户的政策效果与基本规律，验证了系数解耦回归模型的准确性。最后，基于该系数解耦回归模型，分析了不同价比关系下分时电价政策对商业用户度电成本的影响，并发现适当的尖峰、峰段电价的价比关系可以实现度电成本的最小化。

关键词: 分时电价, 度电成本, 双重差分法, 多元回归模型, 需求弹性

Abstract:

An effective time-of-use (TOU) electricity pricing mechanism is essential to stimulate customers to provide load flexibility by price signals, and can directly determine users' electricity cost. TOU electricity price has been adjusted in many provinces in China recently. This paper introduces and analyzes the new round of adjustment. Based on the difference-in-differences (DiD) method, the TOU effect on customers' electricity cost is calculated. Furthermore, enabled by a multiple regression model, the effect of TOU mechanism on electricity cost is revealed by fitting the decoupled coefficient obtained by DiD. Based on the real electricity cost of TOU and non-TOU customers of specific provinces, types, and voltage levels in July 2022 and July 2023, the TOU effects and general trends are obtained. Then, the accuracy of the regression model is verified. Finally, the TOU effect on the cost per kilowatt hour of commercial customers under different price ratios is analyzed. It is found that there is an optimal critical peak and peak ratio to minimize the electricity cost for commercial customers.

Key words: time-of-use electricity price, cost per kilowatt hour of electricity, difference-in-differences method, multiple regression model, elasticity of demand

李骏龙, 尤培培, 张超, 方鲁睿, 张文哲. 基于双重差分模型的分时电价机制对用电成本的影响分析[J]. 中国电力, 2024, 57(11): 173-182.

Junlong LI, Peipei YOU, Chao ZHANG, Lurui FANG, Wenzhe ZHANG. Analysis on the Effect of Time-of-Use Electricity Price on Electricity Cost Based on Difference-in-Differences Model[J]. Electric Power, 2024, 57(11): 173-182.

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链接本文: https://www.electricpower.com.cn/CN/10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202311104

https://www.electricpower.com.cn/CN/Y2024/V57/I11/173

图/表 9

图 1 各地区居民用户度电成本外因变化、政策效果及分时电价峰谷价比

Fig.1 External and TOU effects on cost per kW·h of the electricity of residential customers from different provinces, and related peak-valley ratios of TOU prices

图 2 典型地区不同电压等级大工业用户执行分时政策效果

Fig.2 TOU effects of large industrial electricity customers with different voltage levels from typical provinces

表 1 各类别各电压等级一般工商业用户外因变化及分时电价政策效果

Table 1 External and TOU effects of general industrial and commercial electricity customers with different voltage levels

用户类别	电压等级/kV	度电成本变化/(元·(MW·h)^–1)
用户类别	电压等级/kV	外因变化	政策效果
非、普通工业	≤0.4	27.82	–54.17
	1~10	4.39	–36.79
	35（含20）	13.62	–20.70
	110（含66）	16.43	–39.15
非居民照明	≤0.4	–61.97	–48.68
	1~10	3.96	–20.07
	35（含20）	14.05	–49.73
	110（含66）	43.27	26.65
	220	44.92	–27.21
商业	≤0.4	41.89	–3.83
	1~10	44.69	–12.03
	35（含20）	26.11	–11.17

图 3 各地区0.4 kV及以下商业用户度电成本外因变化、政策效果及分时电价尖峰段上浮比例

Fig.3 External and TOU effects of commercial electricity customers of 0.4 kV and below in different provinces with related peak ratios of TOU prices

表 2 各类回归模型相关性检验结果

Table 2 Correlation test results of various regression models for residential customers (large industrial electricity customers)

回归模型类型	r²检验值
	居民	大工业			商业
	居民	1~ 10 kV	110 kV	220 kV	商业
$ {\boldsymbol{\varOmega }}_{slv}{\boldsymbol{X}}_{slv}+{C}_{slv} $	0.62	0.75	0.26	0.31	0.78
$ {\boldsymbol{\varOmega }}_{slv}{\boldsymbol{X}}_{slv}+{\boldsymbol{\varPsi }}_{slv}{\hat{\boldsymbol{X}}}_{slv}+{C}_{slv} $	0.85	0.91	0.64	0.65	0.90
$ {\boldsymbol{\varOmega }}_{slv}{\boldsymbol{X}}_{slv}+{\boldsymbol{\varPsi }}_{slv}{\hat{\boldsymbol{X}}}_{slv}+{\boldsymbol{\varPhi }}_{slv}{\stackrel{~}{\boldsymbol{X}}}_{slv}+{C}_{slv} $	0.95	0.99	0.98	0.99	0.99

表 3 回归模型中各系数拟合结果（0.4 kV及以下商业用户）

Table 3 Fitting results of coefficients in regression models (commercial electricity customers of 0.4 kV and below)

变量	回归系数	变量	回归系数
$ {C}_{slv} $	–2.28	$ {{x}_{4}^{2}} $	4.58
$ {x}_{1} $	0.01	$ {x}_{12} $	3.35
$ {x}_{2} $	3.57	$ {x}_{13} $	–0.07
$ {x}_{3} $	–5.02	$ {x}_{14} $	–10.08
$ {x}_{4} $	–9.54	$ {x}_{23} $	–2.84
$ {{x}_{1}^{2}} $	–8.80	$ {x}_{24} $	–1.20
$ {{x}_{2}^{2}} $	0.44	$ {x}_{34} $	5.60
$ {{x}_{3}^{2}} $	2.48

图 4 各地区0.4 kV及以下商业用户判定系数与价比关系

Fig.4 Decision variables and peak ratios of commercial electricity customers of 0.4 kV and below in different provinces

图 5 安徽0.4 kV及以下商业用户政策效果与尖峰、峰段、谷段比例的变化关系

Fig.5 Correlation between TOU effect on electricity cost and critical peak , peak and valley ratio of TOU for commercial electricity customers of 0.4 kV and below in Anhui province

图 6 安徽0.4 kV及以下商业用户政策效果与尖峰和峰段上浮比例耦合作用的变化关系

Fig.6 Correlation among TOU effect on electricity cost, critical peak ratio and peak ratio for commercial electricity customers of 0.4 kV and below in Anhui province

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基于双重差分模型的分时电价机制对用电成本的影响分析

Analysis on the Effect of Time-of-Use Electricity Price on Electricity Cost Based on Difference-in-Differences Model

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基于双重差分模型的分时电价机制对用电成本的影响分析

Analysis on the Effect of Time-of-Use Electricity Price on Electricity Cost Based on Difference-in-Differences Model

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